High Wind Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

415 
WWAK71 PAFC 090022
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2023

AKZ135-092000-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-231109T2000Z/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
322 PM AKST Wed Nov 8 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 85 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Cordova.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...High winds could move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially 
  for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest winds are expected early Thursday
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

930 
WWAK71 PAFC 091803
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
903 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

AKZ135-091915-
/O.CAN.PAFC.HW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-231109T2000Z/
Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the city of Cordova
903 AM AKST Thu Nov 9 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds continue to diminish over the area.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2023

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A major winter storm is on track to impact Southcentral Alaska and
the Gulf of Alaska over the next two to three days. Unfortunately,
model spread remains an issue. Some guidance has trended colder
for the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska while some guidance has
remained on the warmer end of the spectrum. These differences have
HUGE ramifications on the precipitation forecast for much of the
region, but especially for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. The
crux of the problem is the track and depth of a secondary surface
low which forms over the southern Gulf Wednesday and then tracks
northwestward to somewhere in the northern Gulf Wednesday night.

Guidance hints of 2 scenarios: The first scenario is that the
secondary low tracks into the Kenai Peninsula. This is the warmer
solution and what is currently reflected in the forecast. However,
the second scenario and what some guidance is beginning to hint at
is that the low tracks in the vicinity of or actually into Prince
William Sound. This scenario is the cooler of the 2 and would
yield more in the way of snow, but less moisture overall. These
differences in guidance continue to stem from the differences in
track of short-waves rounding the upper trough. All of this
affects whether the initial occluded front fully pushes onshore of
Southcentral tonight, how much warm air pushes inland, and where
the upper jet/atmospheric river and associated corridor of heavy
precipitation will set up.

Multiple Winter Storm products have been issued this afternoon to
start to hone in on some of the more likely impacts. Stay tuned,
as there is no doubt that there will be significant precipitation
and wind across portions of Southcentral, leading to widespread
hazardous travel.

SB/DAN

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The weather pattern across the Bering and Southwest Alaska remain
virtually unchanged this evening. As low pressure over the AKPEN
continues moving further into the Gulf through tonight, the next
low pressure system is forecast to slide across the Aleutians from
the west Wednesday into Thursday, before diving southward into
the North Pacific Thursday evening. This will see Southwest remain
relatively dry and calmer the next few days, though clearing
across the region will also allow overnight temperatures to bottom
out into the teens and even the single digits for parts of the
Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Over the Bering the
progression of the Aleutian low on Wednesday into Thursday will
bring a broad front into the Eastern Aleutians with widespread
showers. At the same time a narrow wedge of warmer temperatures
will briefly spread across the Western and Central Aleutians.
Thus, rain showers are forecast for the Western and Central
Aleutians tomorrow with any precipitation to transition to snow by
Thursday night/early Friday morning.

BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

The Alaska weather map is split between two well developed low
pressure centers, separated by a short wave ridge through Tuesday.
Forecast Models begin the period mixed, but regain consensus by
the start of the new workweek. The stronger low in the West moves
across the Bering, bringing widespread gale force winds with some
areas of storm force gustiness through the weekend across the
Bering through Tuesday, diminishing from West to East. Gale force
gap winds extend over the Alaska Peninsula, around Kodiak Island
and over the Southern Kenai Peninsula through Tuesday.

A moderate ridge moves into Southwest Alaska Sunday and extends
over the lower half of the mainland through Tuesday. The Eastern
Gulf low will be drifting out of the Gulf through Sunday. A new
low formed from the energy over the Bering sets up near Kodiak on
Monday before pushing across the Gulf for Tuesday. A gale force
barrier jet sets up along the North Gulf Coast for Monday, and
weakens Tuesday.

KZ

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...

Light N winds this afternoon will increase up to 15G25KT this
evening, continuing into early Wed AM. With increasing wind,
medium to high potential for intermittent MVFR/IFR vis due to
blowing snow after 06z tonight. Light snow with MVFR cigs and vis
also expected starting around midnight. Brief Heavier snow is
expected to move over the terminal by noon Wednesday. Snow may
changeover to rain by late Wednesday afternoon/evening. LLWS is
also possible beginning late tonight as the northerly wind
increases and a SE wind develops aloft.

TM

&&