Gale Warning 402, NWS Anchorage, AK

472 
FZAK61 PAFC 151145
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-160045-
345 AM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 993 mb low at 54N 155W moves to 57N 145W at 990 mb Fri morning.
The low remains nearly stationary as it weakens to 1000 mb by 
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ351-160045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 AM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-160045-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 AM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SW up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 8 to 13 ft
after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

556 
FZAK61 PAFC 160019
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-161400-
419 PM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 990 mb low at 54N 154W moves to 58N 143W at 984 mb by Fri 
morning. The low drifts slowly southeast as it weakens to 1010 mb 
by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-161400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
419 PM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
to 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-161400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
419 PM AKDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 8 to 13 ft 
after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

249 
FZAK61 PAFC 161156
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-170130-
356 AM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 mb low at 57N 144W remains nearly stationary as it weakens
to 1000 mb by Sat morning. The low then moves to 56N 145W at 1006
mb as it exits the Gulf Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-170130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
356 AM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-170130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
356 AM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

315 
FZAK61 PAFC 170012
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171330-
412 PM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 mb low at 58N 143W will weaken to 1013 mb as it exits the 
Gulf Sat evening. High pressure will build in for Sunday.

$$

PKZ351-171330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
412 PM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
412 PM AKDT Fri Jun 16 2023

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKDT Wed Jun 14 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The longwave pattern features a broad trough over mainland Alaska,
the Bering and a portion of the north Pacific. There a multiple
shortwaves embedded in the pattern. There is a jet core south of
Kodiak with a magnitude of 90 knots and a second jet core that is
west of St Matthew Island with a magnitude of 80 knots. In
satellite imagery, there is a mature low with an occluded front
moving towards the Gulf. Also the cold front moving into the
Bering is very distinct.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The run to run continuity has been noteworthy with the models the
past few days. Guidance is in good agreement with the evolution
of the pattern. The two features models are tracking are a surface
low approaching the western Gulf of Alaska, and an Artic low
that is tracking southward towards the Bering Sea and western
Alaska. Overall, confidence is above average for the ensuing 48 hr
period. Past 48 hrs, model divergence emerges involving the track
and intensity of the North Pacific low as it enters the Gulf and
the progressin of the front that is attached to the Arctic low as
it pushes across the Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally expecting VFR conditions to persist. There is
potential for to ceilings to occassionally dip below below 5000
ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday night)...

A weak short-wave over Southcentral this morning will exit northward
across the Alaska Range this afternoon, helping to focus isolated
to scattered showers near mountains. Otherwise, expect more
breaks of sun and marginally warmer temperatures across the region
today. Meanwhile, a storm system over the Pacific will lift
northward toward the Gulf through tonight, with rain and wind
overspreading the Gulf waters and Kodiak Island. Have strengthened
winds ahead of the leading front tonight, with widespread gale
force winds now expected from the northwest Gulf through Kennedy
and Stephenson Entrances and southward down Shelikof Strait. The
bulk of rain with this system will fall on Kodiak Island, with
around 1.5" likely in Kodiak City and vicinity through Thursday
afternoon. Some lighter rain will make it is far north as the
eastern Kenai Peninsula, but the front and associated winds will
stall down over the Gulf.

An upper level short-wave currently west of the low in the
Pacific will ride the upper jet northeastward toward Southeast
Alaska on Thursday, leading to development of a new surface low
over the eastern Gulf. This will cause weakening of winds and
lightening of rain over the western Gulf/Kodiak. Flow over
Southcentral will back toward the north on Thursday while a short-
wave ridge builds overhead. While there will be some localized
diurnal showers near the mountains, once again expect some
sunshine in the valleys along with continued warming temperatures,
especially inland. Short-waves rounding the new upper low center
in the eastern Gulf may back into Southcentral Thursday
night/Friday, leading to increasing clouds and likelihood of rain
across the Copper River Basin. For the Mat-Su, Anchorage, and
Kenai Peninsula northerly flow will continue to warm temperatures,
with widespread temperatures in the 60s possible Friday along
with some isolated to scattered afternoon/evening convection - the
kind of typical summer weather that has been in short supply so
far this year.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently in an unsettled col, Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea,
and the Aleutian Chain, are observing generally cloudy and rainy
conditions. This pattern and weak onshore flow has also generated
some low clouds and fog that has moved into portions of coastal
Bristol Bay. Longevity of these low clouds are currently expected
to outlast the early morning, and given the movement of higher
clouds with the introduction of daytime heating, should dissipate
by noon today. A front has dipped down into the northern Bering,
originating from an Arctic low pressure system, bringing a shift
in winds, and cooler and wetter conditions due to slowly make
their way towards Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. The first to
feel the effects of this front will be the Pribilofs and Nunivak
Island in the early afternoon today. The front will bring rain and
gusty winds as well as cooler temperatures. A similar shift in
pattern is expected to extend to Mainland Southwest by
tonight/Thursday morning. With this junky pattern, colder
temperatures are expected to move in with the front, however there
remains to be a fair amount of model uncertainty regarding the
progression of the front and driving low pressure system. While
Aleutians are expected to receive less impacts by this system in
comparison to Southwest, some cooler air is still expected to move
in by mid-to-late week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Ensembles show a stationary low offshore of Siberia and a ridge of
high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska in place through the long
term period, beginning Saturday and lingering through Tuesday of
next week. Inland of the coast, general high pressure should be
situated over Southcentral Alaska with some ridging extending into
Southwest Alaska as well. Deterministic models want to take and
occluded North Pacific low, and its associated front, up the
Aleutian Chain through the weekend before high pressure over
interior Alaska redirects the low northward and toward the Seward
Peninsula by early next week. There is the potential for the
development of a triple point low on the Pacific side of the
Alaska Peninsula during the same time period. Models keep high
pressure over interior Alaska strong enough so that should a
triple point low develop, it gets redirected eastward and away
from the northern Gulf.

Ultimately, there is high confidence that the Aleutian Chain will
remain under settled conditions over the weekend and potentially
into early next week. This would keep showery conditions over the
weekend and potentially into early next week. This would keep
showery conditions and below normal temperatures over the Aleutian
Chain during the extended period. By early next week, the occluded
front moves into Southwest Alaska, which, despite less confidence,
would allow the region to see an above normal chance for
precipitation as well as cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Finally, high pressure over Southcentral may finally bring
seasonably normal conditions and temperatures to Southcentral. The
caveat being that models have wanted to show high presure building
into the region for multiple weeks now, each time not exactly
verifying. Thus, low but increasing confidence exists that
Southcentral will be drier and warmer during the long term period.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CL
LONG TERM...BL