Gale Warning 313, NWS Anchorage, AK

066 
FZAK51 PAFC 092259
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101130-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 mb low 10 nm north of Middleton Island moves to 90 nm 
southwest of Middleton Island at 991 mb by Mon morning. It tracks 
to 170 nm south of Middleton Island at 1005 mb by Mon afternoon, 
then dissipates by Tue morning. A 1006 mb low develops 70 nm west 
of Sitkinak Island Tue morning, then moves to 60 nm south of 
Kodiak City at 1008 mb by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ710-101130-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
Snow showers.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ711-101130-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 13 
ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ712-101130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ715-101130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ716-101130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ714-101130-
Resurrection Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ724-101130-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ725-101130-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ726-101130-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ720-101130-
Port of Valdez-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ721-101130-
Valdez Narrows-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-101130-
Valdez Arm-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ723-101130-
Passage Canal-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
30 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-101130-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 15 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a 
rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels in
Kamishak Bay.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater 
may rapidly accumulate on vessels in Kamishak Bay in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ731-101130-
Barren Islands East-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a 
rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels
before midnight.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ733-101130-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ732-101130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ734-101130-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ736-101130-
Chiniak Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray in the
morning.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ737-101130-
Marmot Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-101130-
Shelikof Strait-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ742-101130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft S of Anchor Point. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ740-101130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ741-101130-
Kachemak Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft inner bay, 8 ft outer bay. Heavy 
freezing spray outer bay.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

At upper levels, a large low remains anchored near Point Hope
while it extends a shortwave southward across the center of the
entire Mainland. The associated trough axis is located over Kodiak
Island. Out west, a ridge of high pressure continues to build
eastward across the Bering and Aleutians.

At the surface, a low complex sits over the eastern Gulf and is
extending an inverted trough northward into the Southcentral
coast. As of early this morning, the core of strongest snow is
located over the eastern Prince William Sound. To the west, very
cold temperatures and generally clearer skies are the name of the
game for Southwest Alaska as high pressure lingers near the
surface and a polar airmass moves south behind the digging
shortwave. Strong, cold northwesterly winds continue across the
Barren Islands, Alaska Peninsula, and eastern Aleutians. The gusty
winds are resuspending ash from the Katmai volcano, as seen on
satellite. Further west, a Kamchatka low extends a front across
the central Bering and eastern Aleutians. Elevated winds and rain
accompany the low as it pushes east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

With respect to the inverted trough reaching eastern Prince
William Sound this morning, the GFS solution seems to have
initialized the best. The GFS continues to be the quickest
solution overall with this system and the NAM is still the
slowest. Models continue to struggle with the track of the
associated low as it moves from the eastern Gulf toward
Southcentral. The current 06z runs already show low placement
discrepancies by around 21z today. For instance, by this time the
GFS brings the low center over Middleton Island while the other
models keep it roughly 120 nm to the southeast. As the low tracks
closer to the Southcentral coast by tonight, the GFS is the
westernmost solution brining the low to the eastern Kenai
Peninsula coast, the NAM and the Canadian are the more eastern
solutions bringing the low near eastern Prince William Sound, and
the EC is the in-between solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to drop down to as low as IFR
later this morning with the arrival of some heavier snowfall. The
snow is anticipated to continue into the afternoon before
tapering off by this evening. Ceilings and visibility will
gradually increase with the lightening of the snow. Gusty
northerly winds should start to diminish by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A complex storm remains on track to bring more spring snowfall to
Southcentral through early Monday morning. Today's system is
driven by a deep upper low and unseasonably cold airmass centered
over northwest Alaska, and a series of shortwaves moving north-
northwest along the Panhandle and into the Gulf Coast. The core of
the snow as of 4am is over the eastern Prince William Sound to
the north side of an elongated surface low. This should be fairly
short-lived for this area as the front pivots quickly into the
Western Sound, overspreading into the Anchorage area and Mat-Su
Valleys this morning. Northwesterly flow in the low-to mid-levels
of the atmosphere, driven by cold air advection driving through
the gaps of the Alaska Range as well as forcing from the low in
the Gulf, will provide upslope enhancement to the western facing
slopes of the Chugach Front Range. As such, snowfall totals will
be higher the closer you get to the mountains.

The wind forecast over the marine areas is perhaps the most
complex aspect to this forecast due to the interaction of the
surface low with the abundance of arctic air streaming from
western Alaska through the gaps and passes of Southcentral into
the Gulf. Some forecast guidance indicates a solution that places
the low in the Prince William Sound by late tonight; however, the
upper level low and area of high baroclinicity is expected to be
south of the Kenai Peninsula, so the favored low location should
be in this area. As such, precipitation should come to an end over
the population centers around sundown tonight as the main energy
from the system drifts south. Should the low track more into the
Sound, snow will likely linger longer into Monday.

Influence from this system will wane quickly on Monday, leaving
behind some coastal snow showers. There is a possibility that snow
will linger for the Anchorage area and Mat-Su Valleys through
Tuesday morning due to deformation aloft, though accumulation will
be minimal. By late Tuesday afternoon, yet another system will
move in from the southwest, bringing another chance for snow to
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The main weather feature continues to be a deep upper-level low
that will remain anchored by a cold, Arctic air mass over
northwest Alaska through Tuesday. This feature, in combination
with a weak surface high pressure over the eastern Bering, will
bring colder air to Southwest Alaska with northwesterly flow
through Monday. A weak shortwave will bring a chance of snow
to the Kuskokwim Delta through the evening today. Another cold and
mostly clear night is expected tonight as the aforementioned shortwave
weakens and precipitation chances decrease. Temperatures continue
to moderate for Monday as an incoming ridge starts to push the
cold air mass out of the forecast area. By Monday evening, a
front extending off a Kamchatka low pushes into the Southwest
coast, bringing roughly 2 to 4 inches of snow Monday night into
Tuesday. Highest amounts seem to be confined to the Kuskokwim
Delta region with lesser amounts further inland. Blowing snow
will be possible with this front, but there is uncertainty in the
extent and severity of the threat. Be sure to check back with the
forecast as the finer detail's of this feature become more
resolved.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A Kamchatka low will gradually replace northwesterly flow and
cold air with southwesterly flow and warmer air as it pushes a
series of fronts into the Bering. Several weak meso-scale lows
will track through the central and eastern Bering throughout
today, promoting periods of light snow showers for the Pribilof
Islands, eastern Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula for the
remainder of the weekend. A warm front will reach the central and
eastern Bering by Monday, bringing a band of light snow and rain
to the islands. However, a stronger front will traverse into the
western Bering/Aleutians tonight. The aforementioned front will
have gale force winds accompany it along with a swath of precipitation
as it tracks towards the Southwest for Monday night. The
southerly winds with this front will aide in bringing warmer air
to the region and will result in the main precipitation type with
this front to be all rain for the Aleutian Chain and Pribilof
Islands. By Wednesday, a more zonal/progressive pattern will move
into the Bering with widespread snow showers and small craft
westerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Overall synoptic flow appears to be in relatively good agreement
for the long term, but consensus begins to breakdown toward the
weekend. Zonal flow appears favorable across southern Alaska as a
polar low continues to flattened a ridge near the mainland. A
western Bering low will propagate shortwaves along this flow,
helping to break down any amplification of the upper level
pattern. This paves the way for embedded troughs to travel a more
southerly track across the Gulf of Alaska. While the prevailing
pattern appears to be unsettled overall, the bulk of the moisture
plumes is nudging more toward Southeast Alaska.

The Bering low and the polar low appear to have some interaction
for Thursday that will help to destabilize the cooler airmass over
the western and northern portions of the state as the bulk of the
Bering low energy attempts to shift into the Gulf of Alaska.
There is a high probability for the odds to favor colder than
normal temperatures across southern Alaska. Northerly and offshore
flow is possible as the low nudges southward and the cold airmass
points toward Southwest. Winds with cold air advection for the
last half of the week could lead to accelerated outflow winds for
the Alaska Peninsula and as far west as the Pribilofs and the
eastern Aleutians. The exact location and timing of the polar low
movement, along with interacting troughs from the west, increases
forecast uncertainty.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
LONG TERM...VR