Blizzard Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

167 
WWAK41 PAFC 091546 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
746 AM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

AKZ125-100300-
/O.UPG.PAFC.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230410T0300Z/
/O.COR.PAFC.BZ.W.0010.230409T1546Z-230410T0300Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
746 AM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
PORTAGE VALLEY AND WHITTIER...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Visibility reduced to near zero at
  times. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches. West
  winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portage Valley and Whittier.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty westerly winds have
  already developed. Snowfall will intensify during the morning
  hours, with the heaviest snow and lowest visibilities expected
  late this morning through mid afternoon. Snow and blowing snow
  will continue all the way into the evening hours, though
  visibilities will improve as snowfall intensity lightens. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-100000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-230410T0000Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
746 AM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches 
  with the highest amounts in East Anchorage, Eagle River and 
  higher elevations.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Wind gusts up to 
  20 mph in west Anchorage may produce blowing and drifting snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Wind
  gusts up to 20 mph in west Anchorage may produce blowing and
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

270 
WWAK41 PAFC 092300
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

AKZ125-100300-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230410T0300Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
300 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Visibility reduced to near zero at 
  times. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches. West 
  winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portage Valley and Whittier.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty westerly winds have
  already developed. Snowfall intensities continue to be high
  around Portage and Whittier with the heaviest snow and lowest
  visibilities expected now through mid evening. Snow and blowing
  snow will continue all the way into the evening hours, though
  visibilities will improve as snowfall intensity lightens,
  especially late tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-100600-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-230410T0600Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
300 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches 
  with the highest amounts in East Anchorage, Eagle River and 
  higher elevations.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Wind gusts up to 
  20 mph in west Anchorage may produce blowing and drifting snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of snow associated with an inverted
  surface trough has encompassed Anchorage for a good part of this
  afternoon and will continue at least for the next couple hours.
  There continues to still be uncertainty on when the snow may end
  this evening due to uncertainty stemming from the track of the
  surface low pressure in the vicinity of Prince William Sound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

029 
WWAK41 PAFC 100300
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
700 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

AKZ125-100900-
/O.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230410T0900Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
700 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Visibility reduced to near zero at
  times. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. West
  winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portage Valley and Whittier.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow will continue through
  1 AM and then snow will decrease in intensity with visibilities
  increasing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-100600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-230410T0600Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
700 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches 
  with the highest amounts in East Anchorage, Eagle River and 
  higher elevations.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM AKDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Wind gusts up to 
  20 mph in west Anchorage may produce blowing and drifting snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of snow associated with an 
  inverted surface trough has encompassed Anchorage for a good 
  part of this afternoon and will continue at least for the next 
  couple hours. There continues to still be uncertainty on when 
  the snow may end this evening due to uncertainty stemming from 
  the track of the surface low pressure in the vicinity of 
  Prince William Sound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

238 
WWAK41 PAFC 100554
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
954 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

AKZ101-100700-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-230410T0600Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
954 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING...

Intermittent light snow is possible overnight but no significant
accumulations expected.

$$

AKZ125-100900-
/O.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230410T0900Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
954 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Visibility reduced to near zero at 
  times. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. West 
  winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portage Valley and Whittier.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow will continue 
  through 1 AM and then snow will decrease in intensity with 
  visibilities increasing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

794 
WWAK41 PAFC 100858
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1258 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

AKZ125-101400-
/O.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230410T1400Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
1258 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR WHITTIER...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Visibility reduced to near zero at
  times. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. West wind 
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Whittier.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM AKDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow will continue through
  late tonight and then snow will decrease in intensity and winds
  will quickly diminish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

699 
WWAK41 PAFC 101400
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

AKZ125-101800-
/O.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230410T1800Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
600 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING
FOR WHITTIER...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Visibility reduced to near zero at 
  times. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. West 
  wind gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Whittier.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM AKDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and blowing snow will continue until
  winds rapidly diminish around mid-morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you.If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

565 
WWAK41 PAFC 101807
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1007 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

AKZ125-101915-
/O.EXP.PAFC.BZ.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230410T1800Z/
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, 
and Moose Pass
1007 AM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2023

...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WHITTIER...

Winds have lightened up in Whittier, bringing an end to blizzard
conditions. Snow showers will continue to move in from Prince
William Sound through the afternoon hours, leading to occasional
reductions in visibility.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2023

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

At upper levels, a large low remains anchored near Point Hope
while it extends a shortwave southward across the center of the
entire Mainland. The associated trough axis is located over Kodiak
Island. Out west, a ridge of high pressure continues to build
eastward across the Bering and Aleutians.

At the surface, a low complex sits over the eastern Gulf and is
extending an inverted trough northward into the Southcentral
coast. As of early this morning, the core of strongest snow is
located over the eastern Prince William Sound. To the west, very
cold temperatures and generally clearer skies are the name of the
game for Southwest Alaska as high pressure lingers near the
surface and a polar airmass moves south behind the digging
shortwave. Strong, cold northwesterly winds continue across the
Barren Islands, Alaska Peninsula, and eastern Aleutians. The gusty
winds are resuspending ash from the Katmai volcano, as seen on
satellite. Further west, a Kamchatka low extends a front across
the central Bering and eastern Aleutians. Elevated winds and rain
accompany the low as it pushes east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

With respect to the inverted trough reaching eastern Prince
William Sound this morning, the GFS solution seems to have
initialized the best. The GFS continues to be the quickest
solution overall with this system and the NAM is still the
slowest. Models continue to struggle with the track of the
associated low as it moves from the eastern Gulf toward
Southcentral. The current 06z runs already show low placement
discrepancies by around 21z today. For instance, by this time the
GFS brings the low center over Middleton Island while the other
models keep it roughly 120 nm to the southeast. As the low tracks
closer to the Southcentral coast by tonight, the GFS is the
westernmost solution brining the low to the eastern Kenai
Peninsula coast, the NAM and the Canadian are the more eastern
solutions bringing the low near eastern Prince William Sound, and
the EC is the in-between solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to drop down to as low as IFR
later this morning with the arrival of some heavier snowfall. The
snow is anticipated to continue into the afternoon before
tapering off by this evening. Ceilings and visibility will
gradually increase with the lightening of the snow. Gusty
northerly winds should start to diminish by this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A complex storm remains on track to bring more spring snowfall to
Southcentral through early Monday morning. Today's system is
driven by a deep upper low and unseasonably cold airmass centered
over northwest Alaska, and a series of shortwaves moving north-
northwest along the Panhandle and into the Gulf Coast. The core of
the snow as of 4am is over the eastern Prince William Sound to
the north side of an elongated surface low. This should be fairly
short-lived for this area as the front pivots quickly into the
Western Sound, overspreading into the Anchorage area and Mat-Su
Valleys this morning. Northwesterly flow in the low-to mid-levels
of the atmosphere, driven by cold air advection driving through
the gaps of the Alaska Range as well as forcing from the low in
the Gulf, will provide upslope enhancement to the western facing
slopes of the Chugach Front Range. As such, snowfall totals will
be higher the closer you get to the mountains.

The wind forecast over the marine areas is perhaps the most
complex aspect to this forecast due to the interaction of the
surface low with the abundance of arctic air streaming from
western Alaska through the gaps and passes of Southcentral into
the Gulf. Some forecast guidance indicates a solution that places
the low in the Prince William Sound by late tonight; however, the
upper level low and area of high baroclinicity is expected to be
south of the Kenai Peninsula, so the favored low location should
be in this area. As such, precipitation should come to an end over
the population centers around sundown tonight as the main energy
from the system drifts south. Should the low track more into the
Sound, snow will likely linger longer into Monday.

Influence from this system will wane quickly on Monday, leaving
behind some coastal snow showers. There is a possibility that snow
will linger for the Anchorage area and Mat-Su Valleys through
Tuesday morning due to deformation aloft, though accumulation will
be minimal. By late Tuesday afternoon, yet another system will
move in from the southwest, bringing another chance for snow to
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

The main weather feature continues to be a deep upper-level low
that will remain anchored by a cold, Arctic air mass over
northwest Alaska through Tuesday. This feature, in combination
with a weak surface high pressure over the eastern Bering, will
bring colder air to Southwest Alaska with northwesterly flow
through Monday. A weak shortwave will bring a chance of snow
to the Kuskokwim Delta through the evening today. Another cold and
mostly clear night is expected tonight as the aforementioned shortwave
weakens and precipitation chances decrease. Temperatures continue
to moderate for Monday as an incoming ridge starts to push the
cold air mass out of the forecast area. By Monday evening, a
front extending off a Kamchatka low pushes into the Southwest
coast, bringing roughly 2 to 4 inches of snow Monday night into
Tuesday. Highest amounts seem to be confined to the Kuskokwim
Delta region with lesser amounts further inland. Blowing snow
will be possible with this front, but there is uncertainty in the
extent and severity of the threat. Be sure to check back with the
forecast as the finer detail's of this feature become more
resolved.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A Kamchatka low will gradually replace northwesterly flow and
cold air with southwesterly flow and warmer air as it pushes a
series of fronts into the Bering. Several weak meso-scale lows
will track through the central and eastern Bering throughout
today, promoting periods of light snow showers for the Pribilof
Islands, eastern Aleutians, and the Alaska Peninsula for the
remainder of the weekend. A warm front will reach the central and
eastern Bering by Monday, bringing a band of light snow and rain
to the islands. However, a stronger front will traverse into the
western Bering/Aleutians tonight. The aforementioned front will
have gale force winds accompany it along with a swath of precipitation
as it tracks towards the Southwest for Monday night. The
southerly winds with this front will aide in bringing warmer air
to the region and will result in the main precipitation type with
this front to be all rain for the Aleutian Chain and Pribilof
Islands. By Wednesday, a more zonal/progressive pattern will move
into the Bering with widespread snow showers and small craft
westerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Overall synoptic flow appears to be in relatively good agreement
for the long term, but consensus begins to breakdown toward the
weekend. Zonal flow appears favorable across southern Alaska as a
polar low continues to flattened a ridge near the mainland. A
western Bering low will propagate shortwaves along this flow,
helping to break down any amplification of the upper level
pattern. This paves the way for embedded troughs to travel a more
southerly track across the Gulf of Alaska. While the prevailing
pattern appears to be unsettled overall, the bulk of the moisture
plumes is nudging more toward Southeast Alaska.

The Bering low and the polar low appear to have some interaction
for Thursday that will help to destabilize the cooler airmass over
the western and northern portions of the state as the bulk of the
Bering low energy attempts to shift into the Gulf of Alaska.
There is a high probability for the odds to favor colder than
normal temperatures across southern Alaska. Northerly and offshore
flow is possible as the low nudges southward and the cold airmass
points toward Southwest. Winds with cold air advection for the
last half of the week could lead to accelerated outflow winds for
the Alaska Peninsula and as far west as the Pribilofs and the
eastern Aleutians. The exact location and timing of the polar low
movement, along with interacting troughs from the west, increases
forecast uncertainty.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
LONG TERM...VR