Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023

A wet weather pattern will persist into next week with chances for
storms favoring northern and eastern New Mexico. A few severe
storms are possible this afternoon near the Texas border south of
Interstate 40, where a Flash Flood Watch is also in effect. The
threat for flash flooding will persist through the weekend for
area burn scars and eastern portions of the area. Chances for
storms will trend up some going into the middle of next week as a
Pacific low approaches slowly from the west. Daytime temperatures
will remain below normal through the next seven days due in part
to cloud cover and rain cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 137 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Low pressure center previously over the Four Corners has swung into
CO overnight. Current water vapor imagery shows a steady influx of
moisture across the Desert Southwest. Yet another upper level low
will waltz across the southern NM border this morning. The placement
of these two upper level features will provide continued forcing for
storms to develop this afternoon. The forecast challenge today is
determining exactly how far westward the dryline will recede which
will play a crucial role in convective initiation. The strongest
activity will once again favor eastern NM -- specifically near the
NM/TX border -- where favorable shear will meet high CAPE and
sufficient moisture. A perfect pairing of these parameters will hug
the eastern border of Roosevelt Co, where CAPE in excess of 2800
J/kg will combine with 0-6km shear around 40 kts. Storms that form
in this area will have all the necessary ingredients to become
severe, sporting the capability for damaging winds, large hail, and
heavy rainfall. Given the antecedent wet soil conditions, did decide
to hoist a Flash Flood Watch for Roosevelt, Quay, and Curry
Counties. Elsewhere, increasing moisture in western NM will brew the
possibility for storms of a drier nature. With PWATs below 0.5in,
virga showers with erratic gusty winds will be the most likely
profile west of the central mts. Activity overall will taper off in
the evening hours, leaving partly cloudy skies.

Another day of unsettled weather is expected Saturday as the low in
CO continues to wobble around the state as shortwave traverses NM.
An increase to atmospheric stretching is expected with this pattern,
allowing for an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the
afternoon. While lift may be enhanced, other ingredients needed to
sustain widespread severe weather are lacking, particularly shear.
Still, another crop of afternoon thunderstorms is on the docket for
eastern NM, with a storm or two being capable of becoming severe.
Temperatures will be below normal areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Convection will persist through Saturday evening, mainly across
the northeast and east central plains where slow storm motion and
sustained southerly low level inflow will bring a continued
threat for heavy rainfall and resulting flash flooding. An upper
level ridge will gradually pump up over the area Sunday into
Tuesday as the next Pacific low moves slowly eastward into SoCal.
This setup will bring increased PWATs further west into central NM
and will correspond with an increase in chances for storms, with
Tuesday likely being the wettest day of the work week. Increasing
southwest flow aloft ahead of the slow moving Pacific low will
bring drier air into far western NM, which will gradually work
east across the area through the end of the work week and focus
storms further east each day. The threat of flash flooding will
exist each day due to slow storm motion and above normal PWATs,
especially over area burn scars and across the already saturated
grounds of eastern NM. High temperatures will be below normal
through the period thanks in part to cloud cover and rain cooling
of the lower boundary layer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023

MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will persist across ern terminals for the next
few hours, diminishing slowly aft sunrise. Shwrs and tstms
expected again this aftn across ern NM. A few storms in the far
sern plains could become severe with large hail and damaging
winds. Storm motions will be nely. Virga shwrs will form in wrn
NM aft 03/18Z where the primary hazards will be cloud to ground
lightning and sudden downburst winds. Convection will taper off in
the early evening with light and variable winds prevailing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Fri Jun 2 2023

No critical fire weather concerns throughout the forecast period.
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue across
eastern New Mexico through next week. The potential will exist for
flash flooding, including flash flooding over recent burn scars. In
western New Mexico, virga showers can be expected today with gusty
and erratic winds. Any storms that develop will have very little
appreciable rainfall. Moisture will increase across western and
central New Mexico, allowing near single digit minimum relative
humidity to improve to above 20 percent values into early next week.
Winds will remain light to locally breezy and given the gentle
magnitudes will be generally terrain influenced.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  46  80  49 /  20  10  10   0
Dulce...........................  69  39  73  39 /  40  20  40  10
Cuba............................  70  42  74  44 /  30  10  20  20
Gallup..........................  72  39  77  41 /  40  10  10  10
El Morro........................  68  40  72  42 /  30  10  20  20
Grants..........................  71  39  76  41 /  40  10  20  20
Quemado.........................  73  42  76  44 /  10  10  20  20
Magdalena.......................  73  49  75  50 /  20   5  30  20
Datil...........................  71  43  73  45 /  20  10  30  20
Reserve.........................  77  39  80  40 /   5   5  20   5
Glenwood........................  81  47  84  51 /   0   0  10   0
Chama...........................  63  37  65  37 /  40  20  60  20
Los Alamos......................  66  49  69  50 /  40  20  40  30
Pecos...........................  68  45  71  46 /  30  10  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  63  38  65  41 /  40  20  70  30
Red River.......................  57  35  59  36 /  40  30  80  30
Angel Fire......................  61  33  62  35 /  40  10  70  30
Taos............................  68  38  71  40 /  30  10  50  20
Mora............................  65  42  66  42 /  40  10  70  30
Espanola........................  74  46  78  48 /  30  10  30  20
Santa Fe........................  70  48  73  49 /  30  10  40  20
Santa Fe Airport................  73  44  76  47 /  20   5  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  56  79  57 /  10   5  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  77  55  80  56 /  10   5  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  52  84  54 /  10   5  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  53  82  56 /  10   5  10  20
Belen...........................  82  51  85  53 /  10   5  10  20
Bernalillo......................  79  52  82  54 /  10   5  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  81  48  84  51 /  10   0  10  20
Corrales........................  79  52  83  54 /  10   5  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  81  48  84  51 /  10   5  10  20
Placitas........................  75  53  79  54 /  10   5  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  76  53  81  55 /  10   5  10  20
Socorro.........................  83  54  85  55 /  10   5  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  48  73  48 /  10   5  20  30
Tijeras.........................  72  49  75  50 /  10   5  20  30
Edgewood........................  71  47  74  47 /  10   5  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  41  75  42 /  10   5  20  20
Clines Corners..................  69  44  72  46 /  10   5  20  20
Mountainair.....................  74  47  77  48 /  10   5  10  30
Gran Quivira....................  75  48  78  48 /  10   0  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  80  53  82  54 /  10   0  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  73  47  74  47 /  10   0  20  10
Capulin.........................  67  44  66  45 /  20  10  70  20
Raton...........................  71  44  72  45 /  30  10  60  20
Springer........................  72  45  74  47 /  30   5  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  70  43  71  44 /  30  10  50  20
Clayton.........................  76  51  74  52 /  10  10  40  40
Roy.............................  70  48  71  49 /  20  20  50  20
Conchas.........................  77  51  79  53 /  20  10  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  75  51  78  52 /  20   5  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  76  50  78  52 /  20  10  20  40
Clovis..........................  75  52  78  54 /  60  10  20  50
Portales........................  76  53  80  55 /  60  10  20  50
Fort Sumner.....................  80  53  82  54 /  20   5  20  20
Roswell.........................  90  58  89  60 /  20   5  10  20
Picacho.........................  81  52  81  52 /  20   5  20  20
Elk.............................  78  49  78  48 /   5   0  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
NMZ234>236.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...12