Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
545 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

The active pattern will continue through mid next week with showers
and storms favoring northern and eastern New Mexico through
Saturday. Shower and storm chances will gradually expand south and
west on Sunday and Monday, thanks to better moisture behind a
backdoor cold front. Shower and storm coverage looks to be
widespread areawide on Tuesday ahead of a storm system over southern
California. Drier air starts to filter in from the southwest
beginning Wednesday, slowly oozing north and east by late week,
reducing shower and storm chances with it. With the cloud cover
associated with the showers and storms, temperatures will be 5 to 15
degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Radar shows scattered strong to severe storms across central and
eastern NM generally north of I-40. The severe threat will generally
be confined to discrete cells in east-central NM this afternoon.
With bulk shear of 40-50 knots and SB CAPE around 3000 J/kg across
the eastern plains, large hail will be the predominant severe threat
although damaging winds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Later this evening, flash flooding will become the greater concern
as cells cluster together over locations that have received 1-5
inches of rainfall over the past 7 days. A Flash Flood Warning is
already in effect for portions of Roosevelt, Curry, and Quay
counties where training storms generated heavy rainfall earlier this
morning. Those locations will be particularly sensitive to any more
precipitation that falls this evening. Low ceilings and
intermittent fog are possible again tonight just east of the
northern mountains and in the far southeast after storms end, but
did not have enough confidence to put it in the forecast.

Scattered showers and storms are expected once again tomorrow. Some
moisture will sneak into western NM tomorrow morning, allowing for a
few gusty cells to develop during the afternoon when a northwesterly
shortwave comes through. Once again, there is a slight risk for
severe storms in the far southeast plains near the TX border thanks
to ample shear and instability. The NAM shows the LIs up to -12C
making it east into central Chaves and De Baca counties while the
GFS shows just a sliver of this very unstable air in Roosevelt
county. The Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended tomorrow in
the east-central plains where locally heavy rainfall is likely once
again tomorrow. Storms should exit to the east as the shortwave
moves off into the TX/OK panhandles tomorrow evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

On Saturday, the broad upper low/trough will still be over the
central Rockies with subtle shortwave along the southern periphery.
Shower and storm chances will favor areas along and north of I-40,
where the better mid and low level moisture will reside. Storms will
initiate off the high terrain, spreading east with the westerly
upper level flow. Flash flooding will be a concern over recent burn
scars and areas in eastern NM where soils are extremely saturated
from recent rainfall. Convective outflow from storms in Colorado and
West Texas will help shove higher moisture in the form of 0.60 in.
to near an inch PWATS west to the central mountain chain. This will
result in better shower and storm chances, with storms once again
firing up over the central mountain chain, growing upscale and
spreading east into the eastern plains. By Monday, upper level
ridging will be better established over the desert southwest in
response to an upper level low pushing east into southern
California. PWATS of around 0.50 inches across western areas,
increasing to just above one inch across eastern areas will help
promote development of showers and storms over the central mountain
chain come midday spreading east with the upper level flow. A storm
across the northeast may become strong to severe thanks to northwest
flow on the periphery of the weak upper ridge.

Showers and storms are favored areawide on Tuesday as moisture
increases, along with better upper level divergence ahead of upper
low over southern CA. PWATS will further increase to around 0.60
inches across western areas to as high as 1.30 inches along the
NM/TX border. The forecasted PWAT at ABQ will be around 0.90, and
based on sounding climatology this would be around the 90% to near
record values for early June. The threat for burn scar flash
flooding, along with flash flooding across northeast and east
central NM will be highest on Tuesday with the added moisture. One
question will be if the extra cloud cover will result in more shower
rather than convective development.

Drier air still looks to eventually enter southwest NM beginning
Wednesday, slowly spreading east by late week as the upper low
weakens and opens up over the Great Basin. How far this drier air
spreads into eastern NM come late week is uncertain at this time,
due to upper level differences between the global models. The GFS
weakens the low into a trough along the Pacific coast, with
downstream ridging over NM along with much drier air. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF and Canadian keep some higher moisture along with shower and
storm chances over eastern NM due to these solutions keeping a
closed upper low somewhere over California.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

Isolated convection is ongoing this evening across parts of east-
central and northeastern NM. KTCC in particular may see outflow
gusts from a cell currently near Santa Rosa later this evening,
but indications are that this cell could dissipate before reaching
near KTCC. Wind directions will be the initial challenge for
terminals through the evening before outflow gusts lose their
momentum closer to midnight. KSAF and KABQ in particular may need
a few amds for wind dir changes given outflows are again
erratically funneling through the gaps of the central mtn chain.
IFR and MVFR cigs will be possible again tonight for areas along
the Sangre de Cristo Mtns and highlands, KLVS in particular. Skies
clear out by mid-morning in time for another round of afternoon
tstms favoring the east-central plains. Storm motions will be to
the NE with cells progressing into TX near the end of the TAF
period. Meanwhile, scattered virga shras will be present across
western NM capable of producing a few erratic gusts for central
and western terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

No critical fire weather conditions are expected over the next
several days. Moisture will remain in place over eastern New Mexico
with scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday becoming more
numerous Sunday into the early work week. Moisture will also be
increasing over central and western NM with relative humidity
recoveries improving each night through early next week as well.
Generally light winds will prevail each afternoon through Sunday
with locally breezy winds becoming more common early to mid-next
week over western NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  77  47  80 /   5  20  10  10
Dulce...........................  35  69  37  73 /  20  40  20  50
Cuba............................  42  69  43  74 /   5  40  10  30
Gallup..........................  40  72  40  76 /   5  40  20  20
El Morro........................  41  69  41  73 /   0  30  10  20
Grants..........................  40  71  39  77 /   0  40  10  30
Quemado.........................  43  73  43  76 /   0  10  10  30
Magdalena.......................  50  74  49  76 /   5  20   5  30
Datil...........................  45  71  45  73 /   0  20  10  30
Reserve.........................  38  78  38  80 /   0   5   5  20
Glenwood........................  49  82  50  85 /   0   5   0  20
Chama...........................  35  63  36  65 /  20  50  20  70
Los Alamos......................  49  67  49  70 /  10  40  10  40
Pecos...........................  46  68  45  72 /  20  30   5  40
Cerro/Questa....................  40  63  41  64 /  30  40  10  80
Red River.......................  35  58  36  58 /  30  40  20  80
Angel Fire......................  33  61  34  62 /  30  40  10  70
Taos............................  38  69  38  71 /  20  30  10  60
Mora............................  42  66  42  67 /  30  40  10  70
Espanola........................  47  75  46  78 /  10  30  10  30
Santa Fe........................  49  71  48  73 /  10  30   5  40
Santa Fe Airport................  45  73  45  76 /  10  20   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  77  55  80 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  78  54  81 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  81  52  84 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  78  53  82 /   0  10   0  10
Belen...........................  52  82  50  85 /   0  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  53  79  52  83 /   0  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  50  82  49  85 /   0  10   0  10
Corrales........................  53  79  52  83 /   0  10   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  50  81  50  85 /   0  10   0  10
Placitas........................  53  75  52  79 /   0  10   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  54  77  53  82 /   0  10   5  10
Socorro.........................  56  84  53  86 /   0  10   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  70  48  74 /   0  20   5  20
Tijeras.........................  50  73  49  76 /   0  20   5  20
Edgewood........................  47  72  46  75 /   0  20   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  74  41  76 /   0  20   5  20
Clines Corners..................  45  70  44  72 /   5  10   5  20
Mountainair.....................  48  74  47  77 /   0  10   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  49  75  47  78 /   0  10   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  56  81  53  83 /   0   5   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  49  73  47  75 /   0  10   0  10
Capulin.........................  46  69  44  67 /  40  20  10  60
Raton...........................  46  72  43  72 /  50  30   5  60
Springer........................  48  73  44  74 /  30  30   5  40
Las Vegas.......................  45  70  43  71 /  30  30   5  50
Clayton.........................  54  76  51  74 /  30  10  10  40
Roy.............................  50  71  47  72 /  30  20   5  40
Conchas.........................  53  79  51  80 /  20  20   5  30
Santa Rosa......................  52  77  50  79 /  10  20   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  53  78  50  79 /  10  30  10  20
Clovis..........................  55  77  52  79 /   5  50  20  20
Portales........................  56  79  52  81 /   5  50  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  54  81  52  82 /  10  30   5  20
Roswell.........................  62  90  57  90 /   5  20   0  10
Picacho.........................  55  82  51  82 /   0  10   0  10
Elk.............................  51  80  48  80 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-227>237.

&&

SHORT TERM...16/44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
436 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Hail             Pastura                 34.79N 104.94W
06/01/2023  E1.50 inch       Guadalupe          NM   Storm Chaser

            Hail lasted 10 minutes.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
511 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Hail             3 ENE Pastura           34.80N 104.90W
06/01/2023  E1.75 inch       Guadalupe          NM   Storm Chaser

            Hail covering highway 54, hail lasted 15
            minutes. Biggest hailstone 1.75 inch, mostly
            1-1.5 inches.

&&

MAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
512 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             5 ESE Puerto De Luna    34.82N 104.54W
06/01/2023  E1.75 inch       Guadalupe          NM   Storm Chaser

            1.5 inch hail falling now.

&&

MAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
514 PM MDT Thu Jun 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     Hail             5 ESE Puerto De Luna    34.81N 104.53W
06/01/2023  E2.00 inch       Guadalupe          NM   Storm Chaser

            2 inch hail falling now at this location.

&&

MAA

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