High Wind Watch 3, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1037 AM PDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Today will be the warmest day of the week for much of
the region. Breezy southwesterly winds will pick up later this
afternoon, with even stronger wind gusts on Saturday and then again
on Sunday as a broad trough digs into the region. Temperatures will
cool a few degrees each day with below average temperatures forecast
for early next week.
&&

.UPDATE...A quiet morning so far with the only weather so far today
of note being few gusts to around 30 MPH reported in San Bernardino
County. Looking ahead, not much change to the forecast for this
afternoon and evening however there are a few areas to watch for
potential wind impacts this afternoon and evening. There is a low
chance for higher winds to around 40 MPH in the Mojave Desert late
this afternoon and this evening as some of the hi-res wind models
show an uptick in the already breezy winds around 00Z. Currently
have low confidence for stronger winds and wind impacts as the winds
would be short lived and mainly in the higher terrain. We are also
watching the chance for downslope winds this afternoon in the Owens
Valley. A few pockets of crosswinds up to 40 MPH are possible but
the downslope signature on model cross-sections isn't impressive and
for the most part any higher winds remain in the higher to mid
slopes. There is some downslope cloud signatures noted on this
morning's satellite imagery between Big Pine to Olancha, so will
watch trends in short term guidance as well as reports through the
afternoon for this region. Otherwise, expecting typical afternoon
breezes with widespread gusts 25 to 35 MPH and no significant wind
impacts for today. High temperatures this afternoon will be well
above normal, with many locations seeing the warmest temperatures
so far this season.

--Nickerson--
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...337 AM PDT Fri May 6 2022
.SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures this afternoon will be the warmest temperatures of the
week, and for some locations the warmest temperatures so far this
year. After today, temperatures will gradually fall a couple of
degrees each day over the weekend as a broad low-pressure trough
pushes into the area, eroding at the ridge that allowed for the
above average temperatures. As this trough continues to slowly
drop south, we will see west/southwesterly winds ramp up each day.
For the most part, wind gusts this afternoon will remain below
Wind Advisory criteria. However, we cannot rule out a few isolated
gusts in excess of 40 mph, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Wind gusts will continue to ramp up on Saturday with widespread
west/southwesterly gusts in excess of 40 mph expected in western
Inyo, northern San Bernardino, southern Clark, and Mohave
Counties. As such, Wind Advisories have been issued for the
affected areas on Saturday. Wind gusts will begin to increase
around noon on Saturday morning and are expected to drop off after
sunset for most of the impacted areas. However, northern San
Bernardino County will be the exception, as gusts are expected to
continue into the overnight/early morning hours.

West/southwesterly winds will further increase on Sunday as the
aforementioned trough continues to slowly dig south. In addition to
winds being stronger, they will also be more widespread as a belt
of strong southwesterly gusts sets up in the southern portions of
the forecast area, with strong westerly winds in our western
zones. 45+ mph gusts are expected with gusts in excess of 58 mph
possible in areas of higher terrain. Currently, confidence in
these 58+ mph gusts being widespread enough to warrant issuing a
High Wind Watch for Sunday is relatively low. Should confidence
improve over the next 24-hours a High Wind Watch will be issued
for affected areas on Sunday. However, based on the current
forecast, the most likely scenario will be the issuance of a Wind
Advisory within the next 24-36 hours for a large portion of the
forecast area on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Anomalously deep longwave trough will lie across the western states
most of next week. Run-to-run timing differences continue with
latest WPC Cluster Analysis suggesting a slower evolution with
trough deepening to our west over California Tuesday. Axis may shift
east into the Great Basin Wednesday. After that, quite a bit more
uncertainty late next week with potential solutions being trough
axis shifting to our east or potentially a slower exit.

With the slower evolution, I'd count on windy conditions lasting
into Monday. With that said, don't believe winds would be at the
magnitude of Sunday. Otherwise, breezy periods likely persist
Tuesday-Thursday. Well below normal temperatures Monday-Wednesday
with values moderating late week.

As for precipitation. NBM guidance still not overly excited with
only a slight chance shown for parts of Inyo and Esmeralda Counties
primarily Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire weather conditions are expected over
the weekend. On Saturday, temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal,
single digit relative humidity values, and widespread 35-45+ mph
southwesterly wind gusts will result in critical fire weather
conditions for Mohave, San Bernardino, Clark, and southwestern
Lincoln counties. Similar temperatures and dew points combined with
widespread 40-50+ mph gusts across the forecast area on Sunday will
result in critical fire weather conditions for all forecast zones.
As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Mohave, San
Bernardino, Clark, and southwestern Lincoln counties on Saturday
with it expanding to cover the entire forecast area on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds can be
expected this morning followed by southwest winds 15-25 knots
developing after 19Z and continuing through this evening and
overnight. SCT-BKN clouds above 20 kft MSL through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds can be expected across most of the region
this morning then south-southwest winds 20-25 knots will develop
this afternoon and persist through tonight. Stronger winds can be
expected across the western Mojave Desert with gusts around 30 knots
at KDAG persisting this morning through today and tonight. KBIH
winds will generally be around 10 knots or less except for a period
of west winds gusting around 25 knots late this afternoon through
this evening. SCT-BKN clouds above 20 kft MSL through the period

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Stessman
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Adair

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