Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will be present each afternoon
and evening this week across southeast Arizona with plenty of
moisture in place. High temperatures will remain near to slightly
below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures are 5-9 degrees cooler than
this time yesterday thanks to this morning's cloud cover. As a
result there are currently only isolated storms mainly over the
mountains in central and western Pima County, along the
international border, and the Chiricahuas. Clouds have cleared out
of these areas allowing insolation to de-stabilize the
atmosphere. Expect this activity to continue with storm coverage
isolated to scattered. Storms in the lower desert may struggle
because of the lack of heating. Activity in Cochise County will
be helped by an approaching weak vort max from west Texas and
outflows from convection in northern Sonora. PWAT values are well
above normal for this time of year with storm motion only around 5
knots, so localized heavy rain and flooding will be a risk. Even
with the extra moisture DCAPE values are between 500-1000 J/kg,
which will lead to a threat for strong downdrafts/outflows. Hi-res
models keep showers going overnight mainly in Cochise, Graham,
and Greenlee Counties.

Monday lingering cloud cover from overnight showers could again
hinder/delay convection. Upper level flow will be out of the south
to southeast as high pressure begins to center over the Great
Basin and Four Corners. Moisture will again be in great supply
with hi-res guidance showing isolated to scattered convection. But
again this will depend on how long the cloud cover sticks around.

Southeast Arizona will remain in mostly south to easterly flow
which will keep PWAT values seasonally high. Expect daily
afternoon/evening isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity into next weekend. Forecast soundings show most of the
moisture being contained above 700 mb with an inverted V profile
below 700 mb. Strong downdrafts/downbursts will continue to be a
threat along with locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will be
around normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.
SCT -SHRA remains primarily northeast of Tucson early this afternoon
with cigs down to 7k-10k ft AGL. SCT TSRA will develop primarily
south and west of KTUS and KOLS this afternoon with better chances
at activity impacting the terminals between 00z-09z tonight. Heavier
showers and storms could drop cigs to 7k-9k ft, produce strong wind
gusts in excess of 35kts, and briefly lower visibilities. Outside of
showers and storms, winds will remain less than 12 kts with SCT-BKN
clouds at 9k-12k ft AGL. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the next
several days keeping RH values above critical thresholds. Showers
and storms will be possible each afternoon across differing portions
of southeast Arizona each day, potentially lingering into the late
night hours some nights. Coverage will be isolated to scattered.
Any storms will carry the threats of lightning, strong winds
gusts, and localized flooding.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
213 PM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

AZZ508-512-262145-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
213 PM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cochise
County through 245 PM MST...

At 212 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chiricahua National Monument, or 21 miles northwest of Rodeo, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chiricahua National Monument.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 181 between mile markers 60 and 64.
 Route 186 between mile markers 357 and 359.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 10929 3197 10945 3219 10950 3217 10918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 185DEG 7KT 3201 10936

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KRG