Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

041 
WGUS75 KTWC 262105
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

AZC019-262230-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220626T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
205 PM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 205 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area which includes the Contreras Burn Scar. 
Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow 
moving downstream. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, 
vegetation and other loose materials. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Kitt Peak and Pan Tak, Contreras Burn Scar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of 
creeks, roads and normally dry washes is likely. The heavy rains 
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep 
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 11168 3201 11163 3202 11154 3191 11154
      3191 11165

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

KRG

767 
WGUS75 KTWC 262221
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
321 PM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

AZC019-262231-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220626T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-
321 PM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3197 11168 3201 11163 3202 11154 3191 11154
      3191 11165

$$

JTD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
913 AM MST Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will be present each afternoon
and evening across southeast Arizona with plenty of moisture in
place. The best coverage of storms will occur today and Monday,
becoming a more typical coverage of storms Tuesday. High
temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar is currently showing an area of light showers
extending from Tucson to the AZ/NM border slowly moving
northward. There is also a weak MCV moving into Santa Cruz and
southwest Cochise County that can be seen on visible satellite.
Earlier in the morning there were a couple lightning strikes
within the showers but nothing in the past 2 hours. Expect this
activity to continue through the morning and continue slowly
northward. Areas west of Tucson are starting to clear and this is
where Hi-res models and ensembles initiate convection this
afternoon. Areas that see solar insolation will be the first to
destabilize and have storms form similar to yesterday. Cloud cover
over the eastern portion of the CWA will likely result in a later
start for thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance shows storms forming by
late afternoon and early evening and sticking around into the
overnight hours. PWAT values are much above normal, so locally
heavy rainfall will be a threat with some flooding issues
possible. The lower levels are still somewhat dry with DCAPE
values between 500-1000 J/kg, so strong outflow winds will be
possible along with blowing dust. PLease see the previous
discussion for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/18z.
Expect ISOLD to SCT -SHRA east of Tucson this morning with cigs
7-9k ft AGL. Otherwise, generally mostly cloudy skies with
variable SFC winds less than 15 kts thru noon. Thereafter, expect
SCT TSRA with cigs 6-9k ft AGL during the afternoon and evening.
Erratic SFC wind gusts in excess of 40 kts possible with TSRA and
outflows during the afternoon and evening hours, especially
west/northwest of Tucson. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the next
several days keeping RH values above critical thresholds. Showers
and storms will be possible each afternoon across differing portions
of southeast Arizona each day, potentially lingering into the late
night hours some nights. Today and Monday look to have slightly
higher coverage of storms which will come back down closer to normal
by mid-week. Any storms will carry the threats of lightning, strong
winds gusts, and localized flooding.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 AM MST Sun Jun 26 2022/
The upper pattern this morning is defined by a trough of low
pressure extending along the NV/CA border into SW AZ, a large and
broad area of high pressure centered over the Southeastern states,
and a resulting southerly flow in between these two features
pushing into Southeast Arizona. Weak mid-level disturbance
embedded in this southerly flow is currently situated across the
eastern half of the forecast area early this morning, bringing
with it light showers across SE Pima, N Cochise and Graham county.
This feature will weaken and slowly eject NNE the first half of
the day today, which will likely inhibit storm development east of
Tucson until late this afternoon as it will reside in the
subsident field in its wake.

The upper trough is expected to slowly track east today, helping
convection initially develop across south-central and southwest
Arizona early this afternoon. Diffluent area along the eastern
periphery of this trough will help storms develop later this
afternoon and into the evening across areas east/northeast of
Tucson. Modest amount of moisture around today will result in only
localized heavy rainfall. Drier air aloft to the west will increase
the hazard for strong downdrafts/outflows across central and western
Pima county...with the potential for blowing dust near thunderstorms
across the Lower Deserts.

Otherwise, a lobe of high pressure will break off from western New
Mexico and makes its way SW into northern Sonora Mexico over the
next 24 hours. As this high repositions itself, it will lead to
strong thunderstorms tracking west through northern Sonora this
evening and during the overnight hours. Weakness in the flow over
Southeast Arizona as this high moves will result in weak
instability/light showers for our neck of the woods into the early
morning hours Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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