Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this week with afternoon temperatures remaining close to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.
A cluster of strong storms has already begun to develop early this
afternoon across western Pima County ahead of an easterly wave
over Sonora and southern Arizona. The remainder of the area has
had sufficient daytime heating to start triggering a cumulus
field and initial convection over the higher elevations. The 18z
sounding is showing some drier air filtering into the mid-levels
along with 20-25 kts of deep layer shear and increasing
instability. PWATs stretch from 1" at the AZ/NM border to 2" at
the far western Pima County border. Scattered storms will continue
to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and into this
evening in the form of multicell clusters. Strong winds and
resultant dust issues remain a concern with drier mid-levels and
additional shear. Storms should be moving along to the northwest
today but any training storms or downpours over trouble spots will
create localized flooding problems. Shower and isolated storm
activity is possible overnight with the additional upper level
support.

Looking towards the upcoming week, southeast Arizona will remain
in an active pattern with scattered showers and storms each day.
The ridge will shift westward towards Arizona and the Four
Corners region through midweek. Plenty of moisture will remain in
place under the ridge with activity most likely becoming more
focused over the higher elevations. With the ridge over the
region, chances for rain will come down a smidge early on in the
week. By the second half of the week, we could see another uptick
on monsoonal activity as the ridge shifts back eastward over the
Plains states and open up the door to moisture surging in from the
south/southeast. Wave activity rotating around the ridge will
lead to rounds of more widespread convection and potential for
storms to last into the overnight hours. Temps will remain fairly
consistent this week, remaining right around normal for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA with cloud bases at 7k-12k ft AGL into this evening
with greatest coverage from KTUS-KOLS westward. Storm coverage
should decrease aft 01/04Z becoming more ISOLD in nature thru 01/10Z
with some renewed development again aft 01/18Z. CIGS can lower to 4k-
7k ft AGL with any precipitation, including gusty winds in excess of
40 kts. Otherwise, winds will follow diurnal trends and remain near
or below 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect continued scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this
week with a bit of a down trend to a more normal monsoon pattern
for the first half of the week. Strong and erratic outflow winds
will accompany the stronger storms, with otherwise diurnal wind
trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Guillet
Aviation...Lader
Fire Weather....Guillet

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1213 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

AZZ501-502-312000-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Western Pima County Including
Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument-
1213 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pima
County through 100 PM MST...

At 1213 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, or 18 miles
south of Ajo, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, Why, Charco 27, Gunsight
and Kuakatch.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 85 between mile markers 41 and 68.
 Route 86 between mile markers 53 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 11254 3203 11291 3239 11292 3240 11264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 171DEG 9KT 3213 11275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1258 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 SE AJO               32.24N 112.75W
07/31/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODING ON SR-85NEAR SOUTH PUERTO BLANCO
            DR, MILE POST 55.

&&

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
156 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N TUCSON              32.28N 110.90W
07/30/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RIVER ROAD FROM PONTATOC ROAD TO SWAN ROAD
            WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
203 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 N TUCSON              32.29N 110.90W
07/30/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH FLECHA DRIVE AND
            EAST CALLE BARRIL TO NORTH CAIDA PLACE WAS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

AZZ503-504-312330-
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales-Tucson
Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
345 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
County through 430 PM MST...

At 345 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
East Sahuarita, or near Sahuarita, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sahuarita, Green Valley, East Sahuarita and Summit.

This includes Interstate 19 between mile markers 41 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3188 11085 3184 11095 3198 11115 3209 11091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 149DEG 10KT 3190 11092

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM