Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 31, 2022Pima County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 31, 2022, 3:31 PM MST for Pima County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2022, 3:31 PM MST (22:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2022, 4:15 PM MST
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pima County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1643 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -18 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

012 
WUUS55 KTWC 312231
SVRTWC
AZC019-023-312315-
/O.NEW.KTWC.SV.W.0085.220731T2231Z-220731T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
331 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Pima County in southeastern Arizona...
  North central Santa Cruz County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 415 PM MST.

* At 331 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tubac, moving
  northwest at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Green Valley, Tubac, Amado and Arivaca Junction. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 11098 3163 11106 3181 11129 3191 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 151DEG 14KT 3170 11106 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JRM

3 follow-up statements

924 
WWUS55 KTWC 312235
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
335 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

AZC019-023-312315-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220731T2315Z/
Pima-Santa Cruz-
335 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 334 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tubac, moving
northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Green Valley, Amado and Arivaca Junction. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3168 11099 3165 11105 3181 11129 3191 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 151DEG 14KT 3171 11107 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

JRM

102 
WWUS55 KTWC 312254
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
354 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

AZC023-312304-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220731T2315Z/
Santa Cruz-
354 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3177 11102 3174 11110 3181 11129 3191 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 166DEG 14KT 3179 11107 

$$

AZC019-312315-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220731T2315Z/
Pima-
354 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 354 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Green Valley,
moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Green Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 11102 3174 11110 3181 11129 3191 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 166DEG 14KT 3179 11107 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JRM

888 
WWUS55 KTWC 312310
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
410 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

AZC019-312320-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220731T2315Z/
Pima-
410 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 415 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tucson.

LAT...LON 3177 11102 3174 11110 3181 11129 3191 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 151DEG 14KT 3184 11110 

$$

JRM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 31, 2:26 PM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 2:26 PM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
226 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this week with afternoon temperatures remaining close to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.
A cluster of strong storms has already begun to develop early this
afternoon across western Pima County ahead of an easterly wave
over Sonora and southern Arizona. The remainder of the area has
had sufficient daytime heating to start triggering a cumulus
field and initial convection over the higher elevations. The 18z
sounding is showing some drier air filtering into the mid-levels
along with 20-25 kts of deep layer shear and increasing
instability. PWATs stretch from 1" at the AZ/NM border to 2" at
the far western Pima County border. Scattered storms will continue
to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and into this
evening in the form of multicell clusters. Strong winds and
resultant dust issues remain a concern with drier mid-levels and
additional shear. Storms should be moving along to the northwest
today but any training storms or downpours over trouble spots will
create localized flooding problems. Shower and isolated storm
activity is possible overnight with the additional upper level
support.

Looking towards the upcoming week, southeast Arizona will remain
in an active pattern with scattered showers and storms each day.
The ridge will shift westward towards Arizona and the Four
Corners region through midweek. Plenty of moisture will remain in
place under the ridge with activity most likely becoming more
focused over the higher elevations. With the ridge over the
region, chances for rain will come down a smidge early on in the
week. By the second half of the week, we could see another uptick
on monsoonal activity as the ridge shifts back eastward over the
Plains states and open up the door to moisture surging in from the
south/southeast. Wave activity rotating around the ridge will
lead to rounds of more widespread convection and potential for
storms to last into the overnight hours. Temps will remain fairly
consistent this week, remaining right around normal for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 02/00z.
SCT SHRA/TSRA with cloud bases at 7k-12k ft AGL into this evening
with greatest coverage from KTUS-KOLS westward. Storm coverage
should decrease aft 01/04Z becoming more ISOLD in nature thru 01/10Z
with some renewed development again aft 01/18Z. CIGS can lower to 4k-
7k ft AGL with any precipitation, including gusty winds in excess of
40 kts. Otherwise, winds will follow diurnal trends and remain near
or below 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expect continued scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this
week with a bit of a down trend to a more normal monsoon pattern
for the first half of the week. Strong and erratic outflow winds
will accompany the stronger storms, with otherwise diurnal wind
trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Guillet
Aviation...Lader
Fire Weather....Guillet

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 12:13 PM MST, 3 hours 18 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1213 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

AZZ501-502-312000-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Western Pima County Including
Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument-
1213 PM MST Sun Jul 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pima
County through 100 PM MST...

At 1213 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, or 18 miles
south of Ajo, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, Why, Charco 27, Gunsight
and Kuakatch.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 85 between mile markers 41 and 68.
 Route 86 between mile markers 53 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 11254 3203 11291 3239 11292 3240 11264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 171DEG 9KT 3213 11275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEL

Local storm report, Jul 31, 12:58 PM MST, 2 hours 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1258 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 SE AJO               32.24N 112.75W
07/31/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODING ON SR-85NEAR SOUTH PUERTO BLANCO
            DR, MILE POST 55.

&&

KJS

Local storm report, Jul 31, 1:56 PM MST, 1 hour 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
156 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N TUCSON              32.28N 110.90W
07/30/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            RIVER ROAD FROM PONTATOC ROAD TO SWAN ROAD
            WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KJS

Local storm report, Jul 31, 2:03 PM MST, 1 hour 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
203 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 N TUCSON              32.29N 110.90W
07/30/2022                   PIMA               AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THE INTERSECTION OF NORTH FLECHA DRIVE AND
            EAST CALLE BARRIL TO NORTH CAIDA PLACE WAS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 30, 6:24 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 30, 8:10 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 30, 8:51 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise, Graham	114 min
Jul 30, 10:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	42 min
Jul 30, 10:41 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	34 min
Jul 30, 10:54 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise, Pima, Santa Cruz	2 hr
Jul 30, 11:11 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	34 min
Jul 30, 11:44 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		31 min
Jul 31, 1:03 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 31, 12:13 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		47 min
Jul 31, 12:31 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 31, 12:54 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	36 min
Jul 31, 1:10 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 31, 1:26 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 31, 1:47 PM MST	Dust Storm Advisory	TWC	Pinal	58 min
Jul 31, 2:45 PM MST	Dust Storm Advisory	TWC	Pinal	60 min
Jul 31, 3:45 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	45 min
Jul 31, 3:46 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	44 min
Jul 31, 3:55 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	50 min
Jul 31, 4:11 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	2 hr
Jul 31, 4:31 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	44 min
Jul 31, 4:37 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	38 min
Jul 31, 4:52 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2022 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.