Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 19, 2022Cochise County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2022, 7:52 PM MST for Cochise County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2022, 7:52 PM MST (02:52 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2022, 8:45 PM MST
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cochise County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 24 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 816 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -88 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3092 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

929 
WUUS55 KTWC 200252
SVRTWC
AZC003-023-200345-
/O.NEW.KTWC.SV.W.0052.220720T0252Z-220720T0345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
752 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

The National Weather Service in Tucson has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Cochise County in southeastern Arizona...
  Southeastern Santa Cruz County in southeastern Arizona...

* Until 845 PM MST.

* At 752 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hereford, or
  near Sierra Vista, moving west at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sierra Vista, Hereford, Fort Huachuca, Parker Canyon Lake,
  Palominas, Coronado National Memorial and Ramsey Canyon Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 11009 3133 11009 3133 11048 3160 11049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 086DEG 17KT 3144 11021 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

AWH

2 follow-up statements

142 
WWUS55 KTWC 200318
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
818 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZC003-023-200345-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-220720T0345Z/
Cochise-Santa Cruz-
818 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 816 PM MST, cluster of severe thunderstorms was located from 
Sierra Vista to Parker Canyon Lake, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Hereford, Fort Huachuca, Parker Canyon Lake, Palominas,
Coronado National Memorial and Ramsey Canyon Preserve.

Dime size hail and torrential rainfall reducing visibilities have 
been reported with these storms. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 11009 3133 11009 3133 11048 3160 11049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 094DEG 18KT 3145 11038 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KGD

865 
WWUS55 KTWC 200344
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
844 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZC003-023-200354-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-220720T0345Z/
Cochise-Santa Cruz-
844 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM MST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However flash 
flooding from heavy rain that has already fallen is still possible.

LAT...LON 3160 11009 3133 11009 3133 11048 3160 11049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 086DEG 17KT 3146 11039 

$$

KGD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 2:31 PM MST, 5 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 2:31 PM MST, 5 hours 21 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
231 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Above average heat will continue this week with a
daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of Tucson. An uptick in monsoon activity is
possible beginning early this weekend with temperatures returning
closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows thunderstorm
activity across northern Graham/Greenlee Counties, as well as just
starting to develop over the mountains of Cochise County. Models
depict a moist environment that is quite unstable along the
International Border extending up into Cochise. HREF surface
based CAPE is highest toward Nogales, where model values indicate
~2000 J/kg with a touch of CIN to break through. Forecast
effective bulk shear values this afternoon reach 30-35 kts, which
should keep storms well ventilated. This means a good chance for
strong/severe thunderstorms in those areas. Anvils will shear off
toward the northwest, which likely makes for a cloudy late
afternoon/early evening in the Tucson metro thus reducing storm
chances. Converging outflows could change that however, and there
should be a healthy amount of elevated CAPE to tap into assuming
enough of a low-level kick.

Tomorrow appears like a similar day that favors areas east and
south of Tucson, although 500mb flow starts to shift a bit more
northeasterly as the high repositions. This could help propagate
of the higher terrain and sustain later into the evening hours. As
we transition toward the weekend, the ridge weakens and shifts to
our east allowing temperatures to trend back down. For Sunday and
beyond, high temps should dip below normal. Deep moisture
overspreads the region and afternoon dew points are forecast to
remain in the lower 60s for many locales. This likely moves us
into a regime more focus on flash flooding/wet microburst hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
Two rounds of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible today
with best chances south and east of KTUS. First round will be
between roughly 19/21z-20/02z with the second overnight between
20/05z-20/09z. Storms will be more likely during the first round,
especially at KOLS where a TEMPO has been included for lower cigs
between 6k-8k ft and erratic, gusty winds up to 35-40 kts.
Otherwise, clouds will remain at or above 10k ft with diurnal sfc
winds generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain several degrees above
average the next few days with daily thunderstorm chances. Strong
and erratic outflow winds from the stronger storms are expected.
Afternoon Min RH will stay above 15% with good to excellent
recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Howlett
Aviation...Guillet
Fire Weather....Guillet

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:58 PM MST, 2 hours 54 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
458 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ508-512-200045-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
458 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Cochise
County through 545 PM MST...

At 457 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Rodeo, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of east central
Cochise County.

This includes Route 80 between mile markers 393 and 415.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 10927 3184 10933 3183 10905 3163 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 083DEG 9KT 3174 10911

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AWH

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:15 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
515 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ508-512-200100-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
515 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cochise
County through 600 PM MST...

At 514 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Bowie, or 17 miles east of Willcox, moving southwest
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Willcox, Chiricahua National Monument, Cochise and Kansas Settlement.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 333 and 341, between mile markers
343 and 354, and mile marker 358 and near mile marker 364.
 Route 181 between mile markers 55 and 64.
 Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 359.
 Route 191 between mile markers 58 and 88.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 10972 3224 10919 3189 10934 3210 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 028DEG 15KT 3222 10953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AWH

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:50 PM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
550 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ508-512-200130-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
550 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Cochise
County through 630 PM MST...

At 550 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles west of Cloverdale, or 22 miles northeast of Douglas, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of southeastern
Cochise County.

This includes Route 80 between mile markers 381 and 413.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 10905 3142 10946 3181 10922 3179 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 039DEG 13KT 3153 10921

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AWH

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 6:38 PM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
638 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ503-513-200215-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
638 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Santa
Cruz County through 715 PM MST...

At 637 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Nogales International Airport, or 15 miles east of
Nogales. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kino Springs and Lochiel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 11081 3141 11059 3133 11059 3133 11084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 097DEG 3KT 3135 11068

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KGD

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 7:27 PM MST, 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
727 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ503-507-508-513-200315-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet
including Douglas/Willcox-
727 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cochise
and eastern Santa Cruz Counties through 815 PM MST...

At 727 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sierra Vista, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Bisbee, Hereford, Whetstone, Huachuca City, Naco,
Elgin, Fort Huachuca, Parker Canyon Lake, Palominas, Charleston,
Canelo, Coronado National Memorial and Ramsey Canyon Preserve.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 320 and 342.
 Route 82 between mile markers 49 and 53.
 Route 83 between mile markers 3 and 23.
 Route 90 between mile markers 309 and 336.
 Route 92 between mile markers 322 and 354.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 11059 3170 10988 3134 10991 3134 11056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 098DEG 14KT 3143 11027

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH

Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:35 PM MST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
735 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW PIRTLEVILLE       31.45N 109.60W
07/19/2022                   COCHISE            AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWNED NEAR BISBEE DOUGLAS
            AIRPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 5:15 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	45 min
Jul 19, 5:20 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	40 min
Jul 19, 5:34 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	41 min
Jul 19, 5:50 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		40 min
Jul 19, 6:30 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	45 min
Jul 19, 6:38 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	37 min
Jul 19, 6:53 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	52 min
Jul 19, 7:27 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		48 min
Jul 19, 8:04 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	TWC	Cochise, Santa Cruz	116 min
Jul 19, 8:47 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	43 min
Jul 19, 8:58 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	32 min
Jul 20, 12:51 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Greenlee	39 min
Jul 20, 1:31 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Greenlee	44 min
Jul 20, 1:54 PM MST	Excessive Heat Warning	TWC	Graham, Greenlee, Pima, Pinal	54 hr
Jul 20, 2:15 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Graham, Greenlee	45 min
Jul 20, 2:59 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Graham	46 min
Jul 20, 3:44 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Greenlee	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2022 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.