Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Tucson, AZ

817 
WGUS75 KTWC 200421
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
921 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZC003-023-200500-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-220720T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
921 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ 
COUNTIES...

At 921 PM MST, The heaviest rainfall had ended, but gauge reports 
indicated that between 2 and 3 inches of rain fell in the warned 
area. Flash flooding was likely ongoing with elevated flows in area 
washes and small streams expected to continue for a while longer.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

SOURCE...Gauges reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Parker Canyon Lake, Ash Canyon, Hunter Canyon and Ramsey Canyon 
  near Sierra Vista.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3133 11046 3135 11047 3154 11047 3156 11011
      3156 11010 3142 11010 3133 11016 3133 11022
      3133 11025 3133 11044

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

JTD

643 
WGUS75 KTWC 200456
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
956 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZC003-023-200506-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-220720T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cochise AZ-Santa Cruz AZ-
956 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3133 11046 3135 11047 3154 11047 3156 11011
      3156 11010 3142 11010 3133 11016 3133 11022
      3133 11025 3133 11044

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
231 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Above average heat will continue this week with a
daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
mainly south and east of Tucson. An uptick in monsoon activity is
possible beginning early this weekend with temperatures returning
closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows thunderstorm
activity across northern Graham/Greenlee Counties, as well as just
starting to develop over the mountains of Cochise County. Models
depict a moist environment that is quite unstable along the
International Border extending up into Cochise. HREF surface
based CAPE is highest toward Nogales, where model values indicate
~2000 J/kg with a touch of CIN to break through. Forecast
effective bulk shear values this afternoon reach 30-35 kts, which
should keep storms well ventilated. This means a good chance for
strong/severe thunderstorms in those areas. Anvils will shear off
toward the northwest, which likely makes for a cloudy late
afternoon/early evening in the Tucson metro thus reducing storm
chances. Converging outflows could change that however, and there
should be a healthy amount of elevated CAPE to tap into assuming
enough of a low-level kick.

Tomorrow appears like a similar day that favors areas east and
south of Tucson, although 500mb flow starts to shift a bit more
northeasterly as the high repositions. This could help propagate
of the higher terrain and sustain later into the evening hours. As
we transition toward the weekend, the ridge weakens and shifts to
our east allowing temperatures to trend back down. For Sunday and
beyond, high temps should dip below normal. Deep moisture
overspreads the region and afternoon dew points are forecast to
remain in the lower 60s for many locales. This likely moves us
into a regime more focus on flash flooding/wet microburst hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z.
Two rounds of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible today
with best chances south and east of KTUS. First round will be
between roughly 19/21z-20/02z with the second overnight between
20/05z-20/09z. Storms will be more likely during the first round,
especially at KOLS where a TEMPO has been included for lower cigs
between 6k-8k ft and erratic, gusty winds up to 35-40 kts.
Otherwise, clouds will remain at or above 10k ft with diurnal sfc
winds generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain several degrees above
average the next few days with daily thunderstorm chances. Strong
and erratic outflow winds from the stronger storms are expected.
Afternoon Min RH will stay above 15% with good to excellent
recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Howlett
Aviation...Guillet
Fire Weather....Guillet

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
458 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ508-512-200045-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
458 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Cochise
County through 545 PM MST...

At 457 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Rodeo, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of east central
Cochise County.

This includes Route 80 between mile markers 393 and 415.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 10927 3184 10933 3183 10905 3163 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 083DEG 9KT 3174 10911

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
515 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ508-512-200100-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
515 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cochise
County through 600 PM MST...

At 514 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Bowie, or 17 miles east of Willcox, moving southwest
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Willcox, Chiricahua National Monument, Cochise and Kansas Settlement.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 333 and 341, between mile markers
343 and 354, and mile marker 358 and near mile marker 364.
 Route 181 between mile markers 55 and 64.
 Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 359.
 Route 191 between mile markers 58 and 88.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3238 10972 3224 10919 3189 10934 3210 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 028DEG 15KT 3222 10953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
550 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ508-512-200130-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
550 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Cochise
County through 630 PM MST...

At 550 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles west of Cloverdale, or 22 miles northeast of Douglas, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of southeastern
Cochise County.

This includes Route 80 between mile markers 381 and 413.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3140 10905 3142 10946 3181 10922 3179 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 039DEG 13KT 3153 10921

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
638 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ503-513-200215-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
638 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Santa
Cruz County through 715 PM MST...

At 637 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Nogales International Airport, or 15 miles east of
Nogales. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kino Springs and Lochiel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 11081 3141 11059 3133 11059 3133 11084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 097DEG 3KT 3135 11068

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KGD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
727 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

AZZ503-507-508-513-200315-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet
including Douglas/Willcox-
727 PM MST Tue Jul 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cochise
and eastern Santa Cruz Counties through 815 PM MST...

At 727 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sierra Vista, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Bisbee, Hereford, Whetstone, Huachuca City, Naco,
Elgin, Fort Huachuca, Parker Canyon Lake, Palominas, Charleston,
Canelo, Coronado National Memorial and Ramsey Canyon Preserve.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 320 and 342.
 Route 82 between mile markers 49 and 53.
 Route 83 between mile markers 3 and 23.
 Route 90 between mile markers 309 and 336.
 Route 92 between mile markers 322 and 354.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 11059 3170 10988 3134 10991 3134 11056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 098DEG 14KT 3143 11027

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
735 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW PIRTLEVILLE       31.45N 109.60W
07/19/2022                   COCHISE            AZ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWNED NEAR BISBEE DOUGLAS
            AIRPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KD