Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Tucson, AZ

976 
WWUS55 KTWC 152004
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
104 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

AZC003-023-152015-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-220815T2015Z/
Cochise-Santa Cruz-
104 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM MST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

At 103 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Parker Canyon
Lake, or 18 miles west of Sierra Vista, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Parker Canyon Lake. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 11031 3133 11048 3140 11060 3157 11068
      3166 11044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 105DEG 6KT 3144 11053 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

GLZ

694 
WWUS55 KTWC 152015
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
115 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

AZC003-023-152025-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-220815T2015Z/
Cochise-Santa Cruz-
115 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3138 11031 3133 11048 3140 11060 3157 11068
      3166 11044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 138DEG 7KT 3145 11054 

$$

GLZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1002 AM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day this week. A
slight downward trend in storm activity will occur by Tuesday or
Wednesday before ramping back up the second half of the week into
the weekend. Temperatures remain near seasonal averages through
midweek before gradually cooling through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We continue to see a weak flow regime with seasonably deep
moisture in place. Pulse storms with initial development near sky
islands again today. Most locations have seen earlier clearing
with temperatures trends up 1 to 4 degrees compared to 24 hrs ago,
so a little earlier than yesterday. Expect average to a little
below average storm coverage the first half of the week before
things get very interesting in the Wed-Sun period. Current
forecast looking good; no updates this morning. Please see the
previous discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA expected between 15/19Z to 16/06Z,
with the greatest coverage likely south of KTUS. Cloud decks briefly
lower to 4k-7k ft AGL around precipitation, otherwise SCT-BKN clouds
above 15k ft AGL. SFC wind generally less than 10 kts and variable
in direction. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoonal thunderstorm activity continues through the forecast
period, with the primary threats being strong gusty winds and
heavy rainfall/flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm outflows,
wind trends remain light and follow typical diurnal patterns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 158 AM MST Mon Aug 15 2022/
The dust continues to create hazy conditions across portions of
the area with visibilities still down to 4-7 miles in some
locations. Today should be another slightly below average day in
terms of convection. Storms will likely favor the higher
elevations with slow storm movement. Activity is expected to
dwindle after sunset this evening with the removal of daytime
heating. HREF continues to show most favorable areas for stronger
storms south of the border but an isolated strong to severe storm
can't be completely ruled out over southeast Arizona. A mild
drying trend will begin tonight into Tuesday as PWATs drop to
roughly an inch or less near the AZ/NM border to 1.6" across
western Pima County. Instability will be focused west of Tucson as
a result but storms will carry a higher wind threat, especially
with development from Tucson eastward. Overall, Tuesday is
expected to be another average to below average monsoon day.

Focus changes heading into the middle of the week as the ridge
consolidates over the Great Basin and an easterly wave comes into
the picture. This trough is currently over southwest TX and will
continue on an westward path across northern Mexico towards
Sonora and southern AZ in the coming days. This wave will lead to
an uptick in activity mid to late this week as ingredients come
together for more widespread storm activity. The trough will
provide extra lift, shear, and additional moisture as it passes.
The track of this feature still remains a bit uncertain as a more
southerly path would pull those ingredients further from the area.
WPC has added far southern Arizona into a "Slight" risk for
excessive rainfall Wednesday through Friday to account for this
feature. The ECMWF EFI continues to highlight Thursday through
Sunday for a low chance of a high end rain event. This will
definitely be the time period to keep an eye on. Near normal temps
through Wednesday will begin a downward trend as heights lower
and moisture seeps back in.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Meyer/Guillet/Howlett

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1230 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

AZZ503-507-513-152015-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
1230 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cochise
and southeastern Santa Cruz Counties through 115 PM MST...

At 1229 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parker Canyon Lake, or 13 miles west of Sierra Vista, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elgin, Fort Huachuca, Parker Canyon Lake, Ramsey Canyon Preserve and
Canelo.

This includes Route 83 between mile markers 3 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 11027 3134 11051 3143 11060 3160 11066
      3164 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 138DEG 7KT 3148 11045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GLZ