Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS Tucson, AZ

142 
WGUS75 KTWC 152105
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

AZC023-152345-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0094.000000T0000Z-220815T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
205 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 205 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Patagonia, Sonoita, Elgin, Patagonia Lake State Park and Kino 
  Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 11080 3150 11086 3172 11067 3172 11057
      3169 11055 3153 11068 3135 11069

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

GLZ

490 
WGUS75 KTWC 152341
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
441 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

AZC023-152351-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0094.000000T0000Z-220815T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
441 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3135 11080 3150 11086 3172 11067 3172 11057
      3169 11055 3153 11068 3135 11069

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1002 AM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day this week. A
slight downward trend in storm activity will occur by Tuesday or
Wednesday before ramping back up the second half of the week into
the weekend. Temperatures remain near seasonal averages through
midweek before gradually cooling through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We continue to see a weak flow regime with seasonably deep
moisture in place. Pulse storms with initial development near sky
islands again today. Most locations have seen earlier clearing
with temperatures trends up 1 to 4 degrees compared to 24 hrs ago,
so a little earlier than yesterday. Expect average to a little
below average storm coverage the first half of the week before
things get very interesting in the Wed-Sun period. Current
forecast looking good; no updates this morning. Please see the
previous discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA expected between 15/19Z to 16/06Z,
with the greatest coverage likely south of KTUS. Cloud decks briefly
lower to 4k-7k ft AGL around precipitation, otherwise SCT-BKN clouds
above 15k ft AGL. SFC wind generally less than 10 kts and variable
in direction. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monsoonal thunderstorm activity continues through the forecast
period, with the primary threats being strong gusty winds and
heavy rainfall/flash flooding. Outside of thunderstorm outflows,
wind trends remain light and follow typical diurnal patterns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 158 AM MST Mon Aug 15 2022/
The dust continues to create hazy conditions across portions of
the area with visibilities still down to 4-7 miles in some
locations. Today should be another slightly below average day in
terms of convection. Storms will likely favor the higher
elevations with slow storm movement. Activity is expected to
dwindle after sunset this evening with the removal of daytime
heating. HREF continues to show most favorable areas for stronger
storms south of the border but an isolated strong to severe storm
can't be completely ruled out over southeast Arizona. A mild
drying trend will begin tonight into Tuesday as PWATs drop to
roughly an inch or less near the AZ/NM border to 1.6" across
western Pima County. Instability will be focused west of Tucson as
a result but storms will carry a higher wind threat, especially
with development from Tucson eastward. Overall, Tuesday is
expected to be another average to below average monsoon day.

Focus changes heading into the middle of the week as the ridge
consolidates over the Great Basin and an easterly wave comes into
the picture. This trough is currently over southwest TX and will
continue on an westward path across northern Mexico towards
Sonora and southern AZ in the coming days. This wave will lead to
an uptick in activity mid to late this week as ingredients come
together for more widespread storm activity. The trough will
provide extra lift, shear, and additional moisture as it passes.
The track of this feature still remains a bit uncertain as a more
southerly path would pull those ingredients further from the area.
WPC has added far southern Arizona into a "Slight" risk for
excessive rainfall Wednesday through Friday to account for this
feature. The ECMWF EFI continues to highlight Thursday through
Sunday for a low chance of a high end rain event. This will
definitely be the time period to keep an eye on. Near normal temps
through Wednesday will begin a downward trend as heights lower
and moisture seeps back in.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Meyer/Guillet/Howlett

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1230 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

AZZ503-507-513-152015-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
1230 PM MST Mon Aug 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cochise
and southeastern Santa Cruz Counties through 115 PM MST...

At 1229 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parker Canyon Lake, or 13 miles west of Sierra Vista, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elgin, Fort Huachuca, Parker Canyon Lake, Ramsey Canyon Preserve and
Canelo.

This includes Route 83 between mile markers 3 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 11027 3134 11051 3143 11060 3160 11066
      3164 11042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 138DEG 7KT 3148 11045

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GLZ