Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Tucson, AZ

999 
WGUS75 KTWC 290008
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
508 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

AZC023-290018-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0047.000000T0000Z-220729T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Cruz AZ-
508 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Friday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3133 11095 3136 11093 3138 11094 3141 11096
      3144 11097 3145 11096 3143 11095 3141 11095
      3138 11093 3136 11092 3133 11093

$$

KRG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
146 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect continued daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms with the main threat being heavy rainfall that could
lead to nuisance flooding and flash flooding. Temperatures will
continue to be cooler than normal over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor shows a small upper level low spinning
over east central Arizona. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
have been ongoing since this morning. Some small isolated areas
have received 3"-4" of rain with most storms producing between
1"-2". Successive WoFs runs have kept this activity going through
the afternoon with coverage expanding more eastward as the low
moves further north. New storm development will likely favor areas
not covered by anvil clouds. Heavy rainfall will continue to be
the main threat with flash flooding possible especially over areas
that are already saturated from past rains. Storms will likely
dissipate by about midnight with perhaps a few lingering showers.

The upper level low meanders around central Arizona tomorrow with
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. A
couple hi-res models initiate storms in western Pima County early
in the morning with coverage expanding eastward by afternoon as
daytime heating destabilizes things. PWAT values will still be
high leading to a continued heavy rainfall threat.

Over the weekend high pressure begins to center over Nevada with a
trough slowly moving into the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles
slightly reduce PWAT values by around a quarter of an inch, but
there will still be more than enough moisture around for daily
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Next week the trough helps push the high over the Four Corners
region putting us in a more typical monsoon pattern. Expect normal
to slightly above normal monsoon activity for this time of year.
Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat for most storms along
with gusty winds. Deterministic models hint at another weak trough
moving through during the middle of the week which could enhance
storm activity.

Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below normal over
the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA with isolated +TSRA this afternoon into the
evening hours. Friday expect some early morning showers then
scattered SHRA/TSRA late morning through the afternoon. Lower
cigs between 4-7k ft AGL can be expected around precipitation,
including gusty winds in excess of 30 kts. Otherwise, cloud bases
range 8-12k ft AGL with SCT-BKN coverage. Outside of storm
outflows, sfc winds will follow normal diurnal trends with speeds
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect continued scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next week. Rain could be heavy at
times with many locations seeing areal averages greater than one
half inch. Strong and erratic outflow winds accompany the stronger
storms, with otherwise diurnal wind trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ502>515.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1232 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

AZZ509-510-282015-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
1232 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Graham
County through 115 PM MST...

At 1231 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 25
miles east of San Carlos, or 39 miles northwest of Safford, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of northwestern
Graham County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 10987 3322 11001 3337 11032 3344 11026
      3344 11020 3345 11019 3345 11018 3346 11017
      3346 11001 3348 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 128DEG 10KT 3335 11001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CSC