Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Tucson, AZ

696 
WGUS75 KTWC 282003
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
103 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

AZC009-021-282130-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-220728T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham AZ-Pinal AZ-
103 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR WEST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES...

At 103 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area with between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
recorded. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar estimates over 2.6 inches of rain has fallen in
         the upper Turkey Creek and Sycamore Canyon drainages.
         Heavy rain has ended however high water is still
         expected to be moving down Aravaipa Creek as it
         eventually makes its way to the San Pedro River.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Aravaipa Canyon Wilderness.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Aravaipa Creek, Turkey Creek and Fourmile Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where 
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become 
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or 
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 11046 3279 11049 3282 11052 3285 11053
      3287 11057 3284 11061 3284 11063 3286 11064
      3290 11057 3291 11053 3292 11050 3290 11046
      3290 11043 3289 11040 3287 11038 3286 11035
      3285 11035 3282 11039 3279 11041

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CSC

715 
WGUS75 KTWC 282127
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
227 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

AZC009-021-282137-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0044.000000T0000Z-220728T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham AZ-Pinal AZ-
227 PM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
WEST CENTRAL GRAHAM AND EAST CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES...

The heavy rain ended several hours ago and flooding is not expected 
to pose any further significant threat in the Sycamore Canyon and 
Turkey Creek drainages. Elevated flows remain likely in parts of the 
Aravaipa Creek below these drainages into the evening.  Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 500 AM MST Friday for a 
portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3279 11046 3279 11049 3282 11052 3285 11053
      3287 11057 3284 11061 3284 11063 3286 11064
      3290 11057 3291 11053 3292 11050 3290 11046
      3290 11043 3289 11040 3287 11038 3286 11035
      3285 11035 3282 11039 3279 11041

$$

CSC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
917 AM MST Thu Jul 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Abundant moisture will allow for periods of numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop the next few days which could
result in local flooding and flash flooding across the area.
Cooler than average high temperatures will also be a result of
this pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor shows a small upper level low spinning
over the eastern portion of the CWA. Skies are mostly cloudy with
showers and embedded thunderstorms along the western periphery of
the low. Storms are having no problem dropping a quick half inch
with some areas seeing one inch in about an hour. PWAT values
currently range from 1.4" to 2.0". Expect this activity to
continue through the morning and expand in coverage during the
afternoon. Storms may be somewhat suppressed along the AZ/NM
border since this area is on the backside of the low. But again
today looking at scattered showers and thunderstorms with the main
threat being heavy rainfall leading to possible flash flooding.
Many areas are already saturated from past rains this week, so it
won't take as much rain to cause flooding issues. See the previous
discussion for longer term details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 29/18Z.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA this morning. Scattered TSRA with isolated
+TSRA likely to develop this afternoon into the evening hours.
Lower cigs between 4-7k ft AGL can be expected around
precipitation, including gusty winds in excess of 30 kts.
Otherwise, cloud bases range 8-12k ft AGL with SCT-BKN coverage.
Outside of storm outflows, sfc winds will follow normal diurnal
trends with speeds less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Deeper moisture in place will bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms, providing a greater potential for heavy
rainfall. Most locations should see at least a wetting rain into next
week, with many locations seeing areal averages greater than one
half inch. Strong and erratic outflow winds accompany the stronger
storms, with otherwise diurnal wind trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 AM MST Thu Jul 28 2022/
As is often the case when the atmosphere is this moist, we
continue to work through isolated showers with a stray lightning
strike or two this morning. Current trends and latest HRRR
pointing toward overall coverage continuing to diminish with
partial clearing later this morning. Surface dewpoints remain in
the middle to upper 60s with precipitable water values ranging
from 1.3 inches near the New Mexico border to 1.9 inches west of
Tucson.

Our overall flow has weakened considerably over the past 48 hours
with storm motion and shear down from earlier in the week. With
above average moisture, that makes for less storm organization and
less vigorous outflow propagation. However, where storms to form
they can dump a quick inch in less than 1/2 hour.

For today, the weak easterly impulse we've been watching has moved
from northern Chihuahua into southwest NM / southeast AZ. As a
result, coverage should increase a bit today with some of the
storms generating wet microbursts (compared to recent mainly
bottom loaded heavy rainers). In spite of areas of heavy rain over
much of SE AZ the past several days, Significant portions of Tucson
Metro haven't seen as much. Most GEFS, ECMWF and meso based
output think that will change in the next 36 hours, which means
the NBM does too. We'll see if we can squeeze a more active
widespread Tucson Metro day in before the end of the month. Such
is the nature of the Monsoon.

Otherwise, still looking like a new high center is consolidating
over Northern California and Nevada the next 72 hours. Ultimately
this partial flow reversal would end up being a bad spot to keep
moisture going to fuel storms, but ensemble 5 day height anomalies
still suggest a shift back into Colorado and New Mexico by early
next week. Not enough time to dry out with even a northerly to
northeasterly flow remaining on the wet side in the short term.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ502>515.

&&

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