Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
127 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Overachieving convection that has lingered from the morning hours
continues to the west of Tulsa. Convection is advancing east with
its outflow, given lack of flow aloft. None of the 12Z CAMs have
modeled this well, and its taken till the 17Z run of the HRRR to
finally start catching up. Basically a weakly capped and
moderately unstable airmass in place over the region, and the 17Z
HRRR gradually increases coverage across NE OK and NW AR thru this
evening. An axis of 2+" PWATs are lying across NE OK into SE
KS/SW MO where the bulk of the convection is currently. Current
thinking is that one or more small clusters of storms will slide
east and south across NE OK/NW AR thru evening with a damaging
wind and locally heavy rainfall threat. Some indication in the 12Z
CAMs that another round of convection developing near/along
advancing cold front across KS will drop south into NE OK/NW AR
late tonight as well.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

A frontal boundary will advance south across the region Tuesday,
in response to a strong shortwave trough sliding across the
Midwest and Great Lakes. While the meteorological term for this
boundary is a cold front technically, it will not feel "cold"
behind this boundary. We will notice the much drier air, at least.
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible, mainly I-40
south. The much drier deep layer airmass behind the front will
bring hot and tranquil weather from Tuesday evening thru the end
of the week. Rain/storm chances will return by the latter part of
the weekend, especially in the terrain, as moisture returns to the
region from the southeast.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Early in the period, convection will be focused primarily across
parts of NE OK, with coverage remaining scattered through the
afternoon. Will include VCTS and tempo groups KBVO. Will include VCTS
for now at KTUL/KRVS sites through 00z. Elsewhere, Isolated
convection will be possible across SE OK and NW AR, though
coverage will likely remain too limited to include a TAF mention.
Outside of TSRA, VFR elements will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  93  63  94 /  40  20   0   0
FSM   74  95  70  95 /  30  20   0   0
MLC   72  93  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   68  93  59  93 /  40  20   0   0
FYV   68  90  60  89 /  40  20   0   0
BYV   70  89  60  89 /  50  20   0   0
MKO   71  91  64  92 /  30  20   0   0
MIO   69  90  58  91 /  40  20   0   0
F10   70  93  63  93 /  30  20   0   0
HHW   72  90  72  93 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
507 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Western Arkansas and East Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain ongoing this afternoon
across parts of northeast and east central Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas, with additional development possible farther south into
the evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
marginally severe downburst winds. The greatest coverage of
storms will likely be across northwest Arkansas and along the I-40
corridor into east central Oklahoma. Storm will be slow moving
with high rain rates, thus localized flash flooding will remain a
concern into the evening. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity
will lessen after sunset.

Areas of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas that have
not seen storms yet today will continue to see heat index values
around 100 degrees into the early evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will linger into Tuesday as a weak cold front
sags south across the area. Low thunderstorm chances will return
late next weekend as deep layer moisture increases.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
541 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGDALE              36.19N 94.13W
08/29/2022                   WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COUPLE OF SMALL TREES DOWN NEAR HWY 412 AND
            HWY 71. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

OKZ072-074-076-292315-
Haskell OK-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
544 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Haskell, southeastern Sequoyah and north central Le Flore Counties
through 615 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southwest of Gans, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Muldrow...
Gans...                           Cowlington...
Cottonwood...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 306 and
321.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 9474 3535 9491 3554 9472 3535 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 221DEG 9KT 3534 9477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
545 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-292315-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-
545 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Benton,
northwestern Madison, northwestern Carroll and northeastern
Washington Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 545 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Pea Ridge to Cave Springs to near Drake Field
Airport. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Bella Vista...                    Eureka Springs...
Lowell...                         Pea Ridge...
Elkins...                         Tontitown...
Cave Springs...                   Greenland...
Highfill...                       Garfield...
Gateway...                        Beaver...
Hindsville...                     Hobbs State Park...
Clifty...                         War Eagle...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 59 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9391 3600 9419 3626 9430 3650 9420
      3650 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 268DEG 14KT 3645 9413 3627 9422 3603 9416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>