Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
127 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Overachieving convection that has lingered from the morning hours
continues to the west of Tulsa. Convection is advancing east with
its outflow, given lack of flow aloft. None of the 12Z CAMs have
modeled this well, and its taken till the 17Z run of the HRRR to
finally start catching up. Basically a weakly capped and
moderately unstable airmass in place over the region, and the 17Z
HRRR gradually increases coverage across NE OK and NW AR thru this
evening. An axis of 2+" PWATs are lying across NE OK into SE
KS/SW MO where the bulk of the convection is currently. Current
thinking is that one or more small clusters of storms will slide
east and south across NE OK/NW AR thru evening with a damaging
wind and locally heavy rainfall threat. Some indication in the 12Z
CAMs that another round of convection developing near/along
advancing cold front across KS will drop south into NE OK/NW AR
late tonight as well.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

A frontal boundary will advance south across the region Tuesday,
in response to a strong shortwave trough sliding across the
Midwest and Great Lakes. While the meteorological term for this
boundary is a cold front technically, it will not feel "cold"
behind this boundary. We will notice the much drier air, at least.
Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible, mainly I-40
south. The much drier deep layer airmass behind the front will
bring hot and tranquil weather from Tuesday evening thru the end
of the week. Rain/storm chances will return by the latter part of
the weekend, especially in the terrain, as moisture returns to the
region from the southeast.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Early in the period, convection will be focused primarily across
parts of NE OK, with coverage remaining scattered through the
afternoon. Will include VCTS and tempo groups KBVO. Will include VCTS
for now at KTUL/KRVS sites through 00z. Elsewhere, Isolated
convection will be possible across SE OK and NW AR, though
coverage will likely remain too limited to include a TAF mention.
Outside of TSRA, VFR elements will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  93  63  94 /  40  20   0   0
FSM   74  95  70  95 /  30  20   0   0
MLC   72  93  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   68  93  59  93 /  40  20   0   0
FYV   68  90  60  89 /  40  20   0   0
BYV   70  89  60  89 /  50  20   0   0
MKO   71  91  64  92 /  30  20   0   0
MIO   69  90  58  91 /  40  20   0   0
F10   70  93  63  93 /  30  20   0   0
HHW   72  90  72  93 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms remain ongoing this afternoon across parts
of northeast Oklahoma, with some additional development likely to
the south and east as the afternoon progresses. The strongest storms
his afternoon will be capable of producing damaging downburst winds
and marginally severe hail. The greatest coverage of storms will
likely be between Highway 412 and the Oklahoma Kansas border this
afternoon. Slow storm motions will also result in locally heavy
rainfall, which may lead to localized flooding issues.

Hot and humid weather is expected again today, with afternoon heat
index values between 100 and 105 degrees.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will linger into Tuesday as a weak cold front
sags south across the area. Afternoon heat index values of 100 to
105 degrees will again be possible Tuesday afternoon to the south
of the frontal boundary.

Low thunderstorm chances will return late next weekend as deep
layer moisture increases.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

OKZ054-059-064-291830-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
101 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Osage,
northwestern Creek and southeastern Pawnee Counties through 130 PM
CDT...

At 100 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a line of strong
thunderstorms from near Quay to Skedee, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Oilton...                         Jennings...
Osage...                          Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Terlton...
Maramec...                        Skedee...
Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3645 9675 3639 9629 3604 9637 3604 9662
      3616 9662 3616 9682 3624 9682 3625 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 249DEG 12KT 3619 9673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
124 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

OKZ054-291900-
Osage OK-
124 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
northeastern Osage County through 200 PM CDT...

At 124 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Pawhuska, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Barnsdall...
Wynona...                         Bigheart...
Osage Hills State Park...         Pearsonia...
Okesa...                          Sunset Lake...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Tallant...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9653 3679 9654 3695 9621 3657 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 238DEG 10KT 3668 9637

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
134 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

OKZ054-059-060-064-291900-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
134 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southeastern Osage, northwestern Creek, southeastern Pawnee and west
central Tulsa Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from Terlton to Hominy, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sand Springs...                   Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Oilton...                         Jennings...
Westport...                       Osage...
Hallett...                        Blackburn...
Terlton...                        Skedee...
Keystone State Park...            Walnut Creek State Park...
Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 9672 3655 9618 3614 9607 3606 9662
      3616 9662 3616 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 234DEG 9KT 3621 9648

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH