Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
139 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue this
afternoon in association with several weak MCVs that were generated
earlier in the day during the stronger convection. Although spotty,
some beneficial rainfall has occurred across southeast Oklahoma,
currently in extreme (D3) drought. Still the potential for lingering
scattered storms this afternoon, including northeast Oklahoma
where atmosphere has destabilized with the thinner cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

Modest low level jet will develop tonight with scattered storms
possible into Wednesday morning. Main precip area on Wednesday
will begin to focus further south as drier air begins to filter
into the region from the northeast.

Upper high currently over the Four Corners Region will begin to
shift east closer to the area with warm/humid conditions likely
through the weekend. High temperatures will again approach triple
digits early next week with excessive heat becoming more of a
concern. Overall rain chances through the extended periods will
likely remain low, however isolated storms possible Friday afternoon
across far southeast Oklahoma and across northwest Arkansas by
Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

RA/isolated TSRA continue across far ERN OK and NW AR early this
afternoon, so will keep varying mentions of RA/TSRA for the first
few hours of the period across the SE OK/AR sites. VFR elements largely
to prevail for the remainder of the period though additional scattered
development overnight may impact the SE OK and AR sites after 06z
with MVFR vsbys. Will include a few hours of PROB30 groups at
those sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   74  92  74  94 /  50  40  10  20
MLC   72  93  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
BVO   70  93  65  94 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   69  89  65  90 /  40  30  10  10
BYV   70  87  66  90 /  40  30  10  10
MKO   71  89  70  91 /  30  20   0  10
MIO   70  91  64  93 /  20  10   0   0
F10   71  92  69  93 /  30  10   0  10
HHW   72  92  71  92 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorms will continue into the evening in association
with a weak frontal boundary over the region. Stronger cells will
be capable of marginally severe downburst winds and brief heavy
rainfall.

Some parts of eastern Oklahoma, mainly west of highway 75 that
see more sunshine this afternoon could see localized heat indices
between 100 and 105 degrees into the early evening.

Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop again late this evening or after
midnight. Severe weather is not expected, though locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with the stronger cells.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible on Wednesday, mainly
across southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as the frontal
boundary slowly sags south.

Upper ridging builds back in by Thursday and through the weekend,
bringing a return to hot and dry weather. Temperatures will once
again return to above normal with heat headlines possible by late
in the weekend and early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
441 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

OKZ054-092215-
Osage OK-
441 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Osage
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 441 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
east of Ponca City, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Southwestern Kaw Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3669 9702 3668 9694 3673 9691
      3675 9689 3675 9687 3674 9683 3661 9678
      3660 9704 3661 9705 3664 9705 3666 9706
      3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 278DEG 12KT 3672 9697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
513 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

OKZ054-092230-
Osage OK-
513 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Osage County
through 530 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
southeast of Ponca City, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Osage
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3668 9694 3670 9693 3658 9685
      3657 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9703
      3663 9705 3664 9705 3668 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 327DEG 5KT 3663 9701

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH