Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
201 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

The forecast focus through tonight is on the continued likelihood
of multiple rounds of thunderstorms, including strong to severe
storm potential.

A diffuse front continues to extend across the forecast area,
from just south of the Tulsa metro east- northeastward into
southwest Missouri. South of the boundary, mesoanalysis indicates
MUCAPE values above 2000 J/kg, owing to notable moisture return.
Dew points are running 25 to 30 degrees higher than 24 hours ago
along and south of I-40. Scattered thunderstorm development is
expected from late afternoon into the evening south of the
boundary, most likely in parts of east central Oklahoma and into
west central Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of
both large hail and damaging downburst winds, per forecast
soundings and mesoanalysis parameters. Localized heavy rain may
also occur with this activity, but the more widespread heavy rain
threat will hold off until the later round of thunderstorms. This
activity should transition east of the area mid to late evening.

More widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
evening in response to the approaching stronger cold front. This
activity will start off more scattered before likely forming a
more organized line that will surge southeastward into early
Sunday morning. A large hail and localized damaging wind threat
will exist with this line, as well. Deep layer moisture will
continue to increase overnight in advance of the line, given the
influence of the flow around the upper low in the southwestern
United States. Forecast precipitable water values around 2
standard deviations above normal will support higher rainfall
totals, likely in the 1 to 2 inch range, as well as isolated
totals around 3 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of southeast
Oklahoma daybreak Sunday, with a continued locally heavy rainfall
threat. The severe weather threat, while nonzero, will be lower
than that seen for much of the preceding overnight period. The
front will be slow to clear the Red River during the day Sunday,
with some potential for thunderstorms lingering in far southeast
Oklahoma into the afternoon. Drier air will make a more southward
push by mid to late afternoon, which will bring an end to the
rainfall potential into next weekend.

Focus then turns to the likelihood of a widespread killing freeze
by the middle of the week. A cold and dry airmass will settle into
the region for the early to middle part of the work week. Freeze
headlines will likely be needed Tuesday morning and Wednesday
morning. The forecast lows for both mornings feature a blend of
the NBM 25th percentile and traditional MOS values, much lower
than the lows offered by the deterministic NBM.

With the dry airmass in place, fire weather concerns could
increase early to mid week, depending on how the rainfall tonight
impacts fuels in the short term.

Temperatures will increase late in the week and into the weekend
as weak ridging aloft builds into the area and southerly winds
return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

VFR conditions will prevail for the vast majority of the
region through 00z. Conditions will begin to worsen after
00z as showers and thunderstorms develop and begin to
impact area sites. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
within the thunderstorm areas. The majority of the showers
and storms will be out of the area by mid-morning Sunday
with some lingering lower ceilings across southeast Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  73  43  62 /  70  20   0   0
FSM   63  72  49  66 /  80  70   0   0
MLC   63  70  48  64 /  90  80  10   0
BVO   51  73  39  61 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   57  70  39  60 /  80  40   0   0
BYV   56  70  41  59 /  70  20   0   0
MKO   60  72  44  62 /  80  40   0   0
MIO   52  72  38  57 /  60  10   0   0
F10   59  71  45  63 /  80  40   0   0
HHW   65  70  54  66 /  80 100  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
515 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...A Few Severe Thunderstorms Expected...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Now... ending from northwest to southeast
            later tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the middle of
eastern Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas. A few of these
storms will be severe through the evening hours with hail
up to 2 inches and wind gusts near 70 mph associated with
the strongest storms.  These storm will shift east
into the body of Arkansas this evening.  However, additional
storms will develop this evening from northwest Arkansas into
northern Oklahoma.  These storms will merge into a complex
and travel southeast across the region during the night.
After Midnight the threat will be for quarter size hail
and some wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph.  The storm complex will
start to exit southeast Oklahoma toward morning.

Locally heavy rain will occur in some locations.  Amounts
near 3 inches will occur near where strongest storms occur,
and / or  where multiple storm cross the same areas. Many
locations will see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The remaining rain and thunderstorms will push out of
southeast Oklahoma tomorrow morning.

A colder and dry airmass will settle into the region
for the first half of next week.  Warmer conditions are
expected the later half of the week.  A freeze will have
occurred in most parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas by Wednesday.  This will encourage grasses to
become dormant and be more receptive to drying when
the warmer weather returns next Thursday and Friday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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