Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
201 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

The forecast focus through tonight is on the continued likelihood
of multiple rounds of thunderstorms, including strong to severe
storm potential.

A diffuse front continues to extend across the forecast area,
from just south of the Tulsa metro east- northeastward into
southwest Missouri. South of the boundary, mesoanalysis indicates
MUCAPE values above 2000 J/kg, owing to notable moisture return.
Dew points are running 25 to 30 degrees higher than 24 hours ago
along and south of I-40. Scattered thunderstorm development is
expected from late afternoon into the evening south of the
boundary, most likely in parts of east central Oklahoma and into
west central Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of
both large hail and damaging downburst winds, per forecast
soundings and mesoanalysis parameters. Localized heavy rain may
also occur with this activity, but the more widespread heavy rain
threat will hold off until the later round of thunderstorms. This
activity should transition east of the area mid to late evening.

More widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
evening in response to the approaching stronger cold front. This
activity will start off more scattered before likely forming a
more organized line that will surge southeastward into early
Sunday morning. A large hail and localized damaging wind threat
will exist with this line, as well. Deep layer moisture will
continue to increase overnight in advance of the line, given the
influence of the flow around the upper low in the southwestern
United States. Forecast precipitable water values around 2
standard deviations above normal will support higher rainfall
totals, likely in the 1 to 2 inch range, as well as isolated
totals around 3 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of southeast
Oklahoma daybreak Sunday, with a continued locally heavy rainfall
threat. The severe weather threat, while nonzero, will be lower
than that seen for much of the preceding overnight period. The
front will be slow to clear the Red River during the day Sunday,
with some potential for thunderstorms lingering in far southeast
Oklahoma into the afternoon. Drier air will make a more southward
push by mid to late afternoon, which will bring an end to the
rainfall potential into next weekend.

Focus then turns to the likelihood of a widespread killing freeze
by the middle of the week. A cold and dry airmass will settle into
the region for the early to middle part of the work week. Freeze
headlines will likely be needed Tuesday morning and Wednesday
morning. The forecast lows for both mornings feature a blend of
the NBM 25th percentile and traditional MOS values, much lower
than the lows offered by the deterministic NBM.

With the dry airmass in place, fire weather concerns could
increase early to mid week, depending on how the rainfall tonight
impacts fuels in the short term.

Temperatures will increase late in the week and into the weekend
as weak ridging aloft builds into the area and southerly winds
return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

VFR conditions will prevail for the vast majority of the
region through 00z. Conditions will begin to worsen after
00z as showers and thunderstorms develop and begin to
impact area sites. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
within the thunderstorm areas. The majority of the showers
and storms will be out of the area by mid-morning Sunday
with some lingering lower ceilings across southeast Oklahoma
and west-central Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  73  43  62 /  70  20   0   0
FSM   63  72  49  66 /  80  70   0   0
MLC   63  70  48  64 /  90  80  10   0
BVO   51  73  39  61 /  50  10   0   0
FYV   57  70  39  60 /  80  40   0   0
BYV   56  70  41  59 /  70  20   0   0
MKO   60  72  44  62 /  80  40   0   0
MIO   52  72  38  57 /  60  10   0   0
F10   59  71  45  63 /  80  40   0   0
HHW   65  70  54  66 /  80 100  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
417 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

ARZ029-OKZ076-152145-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
417 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Sebastian and northeastern Le Flore Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Panama, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Poteau...
Pocola...                         Panama...
Hackett...                        Bonanza...
Midland...                        Cameron...
Shady Point...                    Rock Island...
Rye Hill...                       Jenson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9470 3521 9469 3530 9433 3503 9431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 265DEG 17KT 3515 9462

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MAB