Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
844 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 838 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across roughly the northern
two-thirds of the forecast area, largely focused near the surface
boundary stretched along I-40. More isolated activity can be found
north of there along the I-44 corridor. Expect the surface
boundary to continue to be a focus this evening, with coverage
expanding across parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas mainly after midnight as mid level warm advection
increases and focuses in these areas. The ongoing localized
damaging wind threat should diminish some toward late evening,
with a heavy rainfall threat increasing with the early Friday
morning activity. The main forecast updates this evening - which
are already out - were to POPs to adjust according to current
trends and the latest short-range model data.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Tomorrow will see more of a repeat of today, with morning showers
and storms likely north of the boundary across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. A zone of enhanced mid level flow could
increase storm coverage during the morning hours across northeast
Oklahoma before shifting off to the east by the afternoon. THe
boundary should make slow progression to the south during the day
tomorrow, focusing any afternoon/evening shower and storm
activity a little further south than today.

A stronger impulse is forecast to move across northern portions
of the forecast area on Saturday, bringing more widespread chances
of showers and storms and a heavy rain threat to northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Scattered thunderstorms will also
be possible across far southeast Oklahoma again near the boundary
Saturday afternoon during the peak heating. Upper ridging begins
to build back into the area on Sunday, causing rain chances to
wane throughout the day Sunday with low end chances continuing
into Monday morning before exiting. Early next week will see a
return to warmer temperatures, with temps near 100 again expected
by Tuesday and Wednesday. Kept temps a little lower than most
guidance due to expected rainfall this weekend limiting the warmup
potential. The center of the upper ridge looks to shift a little
north and east heading into the latter part of next week, which
could bring some more slight chances for scattered thunderstorms
areawide.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Latest surface analyses indicate the frontal boundary extends across
east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Indications continue
that convection will increase in coverage this evening near this
boundary where strong instability and persistent low level moisture
convergence exists. Carried TEMPO groups FSM/MLC in the short term.
Convection expands a bit further northward overnight and looks to
impact other sites late tonight through Friday morning. Conditions
will be VFR outside of TSRA, which will bring VSBY down to MVFR.
There is a signal for MVFR ceilings BVO and nwrn AR sites late
tonight into Friday morning. Conditions become VFR by Friday
afternoon all sites, with another round of scattered TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  85  71  85 /  60  60  70  70
FSM   75  90  74  88 /  60  60  50  70
MLC   74  91  72  91 /  40  60  40  60
BVO   71  83  67  83 /  60  50  70  70
FYV   69  83  69  83 /  80  70  70  80
BYV   71  81  69  80 /  80  70  70  80
MKO   72  87  71  85 /  70  60  60  70
MIO   70  81  68  80 /  60  50  70  80
F10   72  88  71  88 /  60  50  50  60
HHW   77  95  74  94 /  10  60  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
902 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
902 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with the greatest coverage
focused along Interstate 40. These storms will continue to pose a
localized damaging wind threat, although the potential will
decrease toward midnight. Additional storms will continue to
develop into early Friday morning, primarily across parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, where locally heavy
rainfall may occur.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
Friday into the weekend, with northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas seeing the greatest coverage of storms. Locally heavy
rainfall will remain possible.

Storm chances will end by early next week, with hot and humid
weather returning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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