Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
844 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 838 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across roughly the northern
two-thirds of the forecast area, largely focused near the surface
boundary stretched along I-40. More isolated activity can be found
north of there along the I-44 corridor. Expect the surface
boundary to continue to be a focus this evening, with coverage
expanding across parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas mainly after midnight as mid level warm advection
increases and focuses in these areas. The ongoing localized
damaging wind threat should diminish some toward late evening,
with a heavy rainfall threat increasing with the early Friday
morning activity. The main forecast updates this evening - which
are already out - were to POPs to adjust according to current
trends and the latest short-range model data.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Tomorrow will see more of a repeat of today, with morning showers
and storms likely north of the boundary across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas. A zone of enhanced mid level flow could
increase storm coverage during the morning hours across northeast
Oklahoma before shifting off to the east by the afternoon. THe
boundary should make slow progression to the south during the day
tomorrow, focusing any afternoon/evening shower and storm
activity a little further south than today.

A stronger impulse is forecast to move across northern portions
of the forecast area on Saturday, bringing more widespread chances
of showers and storms and a heavy rain threat to northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Scattered thunderstorms will also
be possible across far southeast Oklahoma again near the boundary
Saturday afternoon during the peak heating. Upper ridging begins
to build back into the area on Sunday, causing rain chances to
wane throughout the day Sunday with low end chances continuing
into Monday morning before exiting. Early next week will see a
return to warmer temperatures, with temps near 100 again expected
by Tuesday and Wednesday. Kept temps a little lower than most
guidance due to expected rainfall this weekend limiting the warmup
potential. The center of the upper ridge looks to shift a little
north and east heading into the latter part of next week, which
could bring some more slight chances for scattered thunderstorms
areawide.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Latest surface analyses indicate the frontal boundary extends across
east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Indications continue
that convection will increase in coverage this evening near this
boundary where strong instability and persistent low level moisture
convergence exists. Carried TEMPO groups FSM/MLC in the short term.
Convection expands a bit further northward overnight and looks to
impact other sites late tonight through Friday morning. Conditions
will be VFR outside of TSRA, which will bring VSBY down to MVFR.
There is a signal for MVFR ceilings BVO and nwrn AR sites late
tonight into Friday morning. Conditions become VFR by Friday
afternoon all sites, with another round of scattered TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  85  71  85 /  60  60  70  70
FSM   75  90  74  88 /  60  60  50  70
MLC   74  91  72  91 /  40  60  40  60
BVO   71  83  67  83 /  60  50  70  70
FYV   69  83  69  83 /  80  70  70  80
BYV   71  81  69  80 /  80  70  70  80
MKO   72  87  71  85 /  70  60  60  70
MIO   70  81  68  80 /  60  50  70  80
F10   72  88  71  88 /  60  50  50  60
HHW   77  95  74  94 /  10  60  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...69

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
902 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
902 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily southeast of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, with the greatest coverage
focused along Interstate 40. These storms will continue to pose a
localized damaging wind threat, although the potential will
decrease toward midnight. Additional storms will continue to
develop into early Friday morning, primarily across parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, where locally heavy
rainfall may occur.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
Friday into the weekend, with northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas seeing the greatest coverage of storms. Locally heavy
rainfall will remain possible.

Storm chances will end by early next week, with hot and humid
weather returning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
925 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             4 W WESTPORT            36.22N 96.39W
07/28/2022  M1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED BY THE HOMINY EMERGENCY MANAGER ON
            HIGHWAY 412 NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH
            HIGHWAY 48. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KAH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
933 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

ARZ029-290300-
Sebastian AR-
933 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Sebastian County through 1000 PM CDT...

At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Jenny Lind. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Greenwood...
Barling...                        Bonanza...
Excelsior...                      Fort Smith Regional Airport...
Jenny Lind...                     Central City...
Mill Creek...                     Rye Hill...

This includes Interstate 540 between mile markers 7 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 9443 3540 9443 3538 9433 3536 9432
      3535 9430 3536 9428 3535 9423 3519 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 148DEG 1KT 3526 9435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
936 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

OKZ057-061>063-290315-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
936 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Craig,
Rogers, Delaware and Mayes Counties through 1015 PM CDT...

At 935 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated several strong thunderstorms
from near Owasso to near Jay, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Claremore...                      Jay...
Pryor...                          Owasso...
Pryor Creek...                    Grove...
Verdigris...                      Chelsea...
Salina...                         Oologah...
Langley...                        Colcord...
Adair...                          Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Foyil...
Disney...                         Talala...
Big Cabin...                      Pensacola...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 241 and 278.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3627 9458 3621 9580 3639 9581
      3640 9579 3642 9579 3642 9581 3653 9581
      3662 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 284DEG 17KT 3638 9519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
957 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

OKZ067-068-070-290345-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
957 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Wagoner, southwestern Cherokee and northeastern Muskogee Counties
through 1045 PM CDT...

At 957 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
southwest of Muskogee, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Fort Gibson...
Okay...                           Pumpkin Center...
Summit...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 9540 3572 9554 3594 9530 3573 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 230DEG 14KT 3570 9541

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

69