River Flood Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
223 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
   THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Warm front is currently lifting north near the I-40 corridor with
upper 60s to near 70 dew-points extending south down to the Red
River. As additional heating continues MlCAPES around 2000 J/kg
are expected along and south of frontal boundary. Isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms have already developed across portions of
western Oklahoma. Latest mesoscale trends, including CAM solutions
suggest that scattered strong to severe storms will develop across
central Oklahoma, spreading into portions of eastern Oklahoma by
early evening in association with approaching upper level jet
streak. Large hail and damaging winds will be likely with any
storms that develop with an enhanced tornado threat along/south of
frontal boundary.

PWATs have already climbed to 1.5 inches over much of the area
and will likely continue to increase into the 1.75 to 2.00 inch
range overnight. In additional to the scattered storms this
evening, convection to the west will likely grow upscale, with a
MCS sweeping through Eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas by
Thursday morning. A swath of 1 to 3 inches have already occurred
just south of I-44 and with additional rainfall overnight, significant
flash flooding will be possible in some areas with locally 5 to 6
inches possible through Thursday. Several main-stream rivers are
also expected to rise above flood.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Still a little uncertainty regarding how much atmosphere can
destabilize behind main convection line and ahead of approaching
cold front, but the overall heavy rain threat should begin to
shift east of the region by late afternoon. At least a limited
severe threat will be possible across southeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas.

Dry forecast still expected over the weekend into early next week
with a continued warming trend. Gusty south winds will also develop,
especially during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. Low thunderstorm
chances return by Tuesday, however it appears approaching cold
front could stall north of the area which would keep overall precip
chances fairly low. Again, stayed fairly close to NBM guidance
through the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Long duration thunderstorm impacts, featuring IFR conditions, can
be expected this evening and overnight at all terminals with the
expectation of one or more large convective systems to sweep
through the forecast area, in addition to isolated storms late
this afternoon and early evening at MLC and FSM. Have tried to
time the strongest squall line this evening, including variable
wind groups with near severe wind gusts at TUL/RVS/MLC in TEMPO
groups. Conditions will remain poor into tomorrow morning,
although the thunderstorm chances will diminish some.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  74  53  74 / 100  70  20   0
FSM   63  76  55  75 /  90  90  40   0
MLC   63  75  51  77 /  90  70  10   0
BVO   61  74  52  74 / 100  70  20   0
FYV   60  74  52  71 /  90  90  50  10
BYV   57  74  53  68 /  90  90  60  10
MKO   62  74  51  73 /  90  80  20   0
MIO   59  74  53  69 / 100  90  40  10
F10   62  74  50  75 / 100  60  10   0
HHW   64  77  53  79 /  80  90  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
101 PM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREATS THROUGH THURSDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon, primarily across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. These storms are
shifting to the east-northeast and will continue to pose a limited
threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall, eventually moving
out of the forecast area by late afternoon.

Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop later this afternoon and evening across east central and
southeast Oklahoma near and south of a warm front. These storms
will likely be severe, with large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes all possible.

More widespread thunderstorms to the west are likely to organize
into a squall line and push eastward across the area this evening
and into early Thursday morning. The squall line will pose a
damaging wind threat, with potential for isolated gusts above 70
mph, and possibly tornadoes. In addition, the threat for flash
flooding will increase due to the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall expected.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather could be ongoing early Thursday morning and storms
may also redevelop Thursday afternoon along an advancing cold
front. While uncertainty remains in the coverage of storms by
Thursday afternoon, any storms which do develop would pose a risk
of severe weather.

Dry and mild weather prevails Friday before a notable change
occurs over the weekend. Hot and humid conditions will develop
Sunday and persist through early next week. The early season heat
often raises potential for heat stress for any outdoor activities.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.