River Flood Warning 14, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Warm front currently aligned south of the Interstate 20 corridor
through central TX and arcing northeastward toward the Arklatex
region. Broad low level jet and associated warm advection is
ongoing supporting recent development of isolated showers across
the local region. This trend will continue through early morning
while the warm front steadily lifts northward. Guidance widely varies
in the extent of convection through early afternoon and confidence
is low in the coverage of any stronger storms / heavier rains
during this time.
A notable and more likely uptick in convective coverage is
expected to begin by mid afternoon and become widespread through
the overnight hours. The warm front is likely to advance into SE
OK and possibly north of Interstate 40 through E OK by late
afternoon. Much of the northward advance will be determined by the
extent of morning convection. Storms will develop well west of the
region along the dryline by mid afternoon, however additional
development eastward through the warm sector is also possible. The
moisture rich warm sector airmass characterized by mean mixing
ratios of 12-14g/kg will have minimal remaining inhibition by mid
afternoon while the influence from the subtropical jet streak
rotating northward ahead of the approaching upper low fosters lift
across the warm sector. Should these further eastward storms
develop, a NE storm motion would track into E OK and interact
with the lifting warm front to support a risk of significant
severe weather. The further westward storm development is likely
to grow upscale as it approaches the forecast area during the
evening and likely bring an increase in severe weather coverage as
it expands across the forecast area. Renewed convection may also
develop overnight along the advancing cold front and accelerate
eastward through any yet overturned instability. This prolonged
convective period will yield heavy rainfall and localized
excessive and potentially dangerous rainfall totals through the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022

Storms are likely to be ongoing early Thursday well ahead of the
approaching cold front. The degree of destabilization ahead of the
front by afternoon remains uncertain given the early day storms,
however any additional redevelopment by early afternoon along the
front would pose a continued risk of severe weather before the
front pushes east of the forecast area by late afternoon.

Cooler and drier weather Friday before return flow begins
Saturday. A stark airmass change will occur over the weekend with
both temperatures and dewpoints rising well above recent levels
and more typical of early summer. This will occur as the pattern
aloft becomes highly amplified with a sharp dryline becoming
established west of the area and likely focusing the bulk of any
storm coverage through mid next week west and northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022

MVFR cigs will prevail through the period, however cigs/vsbys
will lower to IFR at times in areas of thunder that will become
more widespread later this afternoon and evening. TSRA will impact
all sites by 06z and continue through the remainder of the
period with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  61  75  53 /  90 100  70  10
FSM   73  63  76  56 /  50  80  90  40
MLC   74  63  76  53 /  70  90  80  10
BVO   66  60  74  52 /  90 100  70  20
FYV   71  60  74  53 /  50  90  90  40
BYV   64  57  73  54 /  60  90  90  50
MKO   69  61  74  52 /  70  90  80  10
MIO   65  58  73  53 /  80 100  90  30
F10   71  62  74  51 /  80  90  70  10
HHW   79  64  77  54 /  60  80  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
831 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE PATTERSON         35.00N 94.33W
05/02/2022                   SEBASTIAN          AR   NWS STORM SURVEY

            STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND SNAPPED LARGE TREE
            LIMBS.

&&

EJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
850 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022

OKZ055>057-060>063-067-041430-
Tulsa OK-Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
850 AM CDT Wed May 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Craig,
Rogers, southwestern Delaware, Mayes, southeastern Washington,
southeastern Nowata, northeastern Wagoner and northeastern Tulsa
Counties through 930 AM CDT...

At 850 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles east of Vera to 3 miles south of
Chouteau. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Claremore...                      Pryor...
Pryor Creek...                    Collinsville...
Verdigris...                      Chouteau...
Chelsea...                        Inola...
Locust Grove...                   Salina...
Oologah...                        Langley...
Adair...                          Spavinaw...
Foyil...                          Talala...
Big Cabin...                      Vera...
Pensacola...                      New Alluwe...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 242 and 278.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 9481 3616 9509 3616 9512 3615 9512
      3598 9543 3645 9594 3674 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 232DEG 40KT 3644 9582 3615 9536

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH