Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Forecast Key Points:

- Thunderstorms, Some Severe, Likely This Evening into Tonight

- Another Round of Severe Storms Possible Thursday Night into Friday
  Morning

- Drier and Warmer for the Weekend into Next Week

As of 230 PM Tuesday afternoon, zonal midlevel flow remains across
the central US with a shortwave trough ejecting into eastern WY. An
weakly defined surface pressure pattern resides across the region
with multiple weak frontal zones. For the short term, a weak frontal
zone was present across southern NE and may be the focal point for
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into the evening.
Should a storm develop, the background environment is favorable for
splitting supercells with predominately a large hail threat. A
narrow zone, immediately within the boundary zone, has backed low-
level winds that could support a brief tornado threat.

Confidence increases for more-widespread thunderstorm activity late
this evening into the overnight hours. The aforementioned midlevel
shortwave trough was interacting with an unstable zone across
eastern WY and contributing to supercell thunderstorm development.
These supercells are likely to remain discrete or semi-discrete
through much of the evening before a gradual upscale growth ensues
across central NE or even northern KS. The timing of upscale growth
will be critical to the associated hazards across north-central KS
and the remainder of the area. Should convective mode remain semi-
discrete, all hazards would remain possible including, large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A more-linear mode would
support a damaging wind threat and possibly a hail threat. This
round of thunderstorm activity looks to arrive to the area after 9-
10 PM and exiting the area to the southeast between 4-7 AM.
Contemplated a Flood Watch for the central and east-central KS
counties with the recent rainfall and swollen rivers. Due to the
progressive nature of the MCS and the threat for upshear propagation
remaining west of the area have held off on a Flood Watch for now.

A brief reprieve from thunderstorm chances arrives Wednesday as
surface ridging moves into the central Plains. The active weather
pattern returns Thursday evening into Friday morning as a midlevel
shortwave trough ejects into the Plains. Sufficient instability and
shear will be in place for a severe weather threat. For Friday
afternoon and the weekend, a drier pattern emerges for the weekend
as midlevel ridging overspreads the central Plains. Otherwise,
daytime highs will remain near 80 each afternoon with overnight lows
in the 50s/60s. The ridge is forecast to amplify early next week,
resulting in temperatures reaching the 90s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

CAMs continue to show a linear MCS moving across the area late
this evening. With storms already going over the high plains and a
weak boundary lingering to the north, confidence in TS impacting
the terminals is increasing. Will use the CAMs as a first guess on
timing the storms at the terminals. Would expect some tempo MVFR
CIGS and VSBY as the storms pass through. Most of the activity
should be exiting around 12Z with high pressure and VFR conditions
building in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Baerg
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-081945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated storms are possible this afternoon into the early
evening. Any storm that develops this afternoon into the early
evening will be capable of large hail and possibly a tornado.
Thunderstorms are likely late this evening into the overnight
hours. These storms may be severe with damaging winds as the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of severe storms are possible Thursday evening into
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf