Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Topeka, KS

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSC201-080428-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220608T0445Z/
Washington-
1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
north central and northeastern Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
also remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for central, north central,
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3928 9793 3935 9746 3957 9690 3957 9681
      3966 9681 3981 9664 3944 9629 3891 9722
      3889 9737 3896 9737 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 310DEG 44KT 3948 9653 3920 9700 3904 9774 

$$

KSC027-029-041-061-117-143-149-161-080445-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220608T0445Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Riley-Ottawa-Pottawatomie-Clay-Cloud-Marshall-
1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN DICKINSON...NORTHWESTERN GEARY...RILEY...OTTAWA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 1118 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles northeast of Olsburg to near Wakefield to 4
miles north of Culver, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Clay Center, Minneapolis, Blue Rapids, Westmoreland, Blaine,
Solomon, Wakefield, Riley, Waterville, Bennington, Miltonvale,
Milford, Leonardville, Delphos, Tescott, Olsburg, Randolph, Green and
Culver.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 277.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3928 9793 3935 9746 3957 9690 3957 9681
      3966 9681 3981 9664 3944 9629 3891 9722
      3889 9737 3896 9737 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 310DEG 44KT 3948 9653 3920 9700 3904 9774 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Jones

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1123 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSC029-117-080433-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220608T0445Z/
Cloud-Marshall-
1123 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3912 9792 3917 9737 3929 9701 3941 9664
      3939 9638 3891 9722 3889 9737 3896 9737
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 336DEG 39KT 3944 9651 3916 9698 3900 9772 

$$

KSC027-041-061-143-149-161-080445-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220608T0445Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Riley-Ottawa-Pottawatomie-Clay-
1123 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN DICKINSON...NORTHWESTERN GEARY...SOUTHWESTERN RILEY...
SOUTHERN OTTAWA...WEST CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHERN CLAY
COUNTIES...

At 1123 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles east of Olsburg to 3 miles northwest of
Milford Lake to 3 miles northeast of Culver, moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Minneapolis, Westmoreland, Solomon, Wakefield, Riley,
Bennington, Milford, Tescott, Culver, Wells, Manchester, Longford,
Niles, Talmage, Milford Lake, Moonlight, Keats and Tuttle Creek Lake.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 277.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 9792 3917 9737 3929 9701 3941 9664
      3939 9638 3891 9722 3889 9737 3896 9737
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 336DEG 39KT 3944 9651 3916 9698 3900 9772 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Jones

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSC027-041-061-143-149-161-080450-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220608T0445Z/
Dickinson-Geary-Riley-Ottawa-Pottawatomie-Clay-
1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN DICKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN GEARY...SOUTHWESTERN RILEY...SOUTHERN OTTAWA...WEST
CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145
PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3912 9792 3917 9737 3929 9701 3941 9664
      3939 9638 3891 9722 3889 9737 3896 9737
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 336DEG 39KT 3930 9643 3902 9690 3886 9764 

$$

Jones

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Forecast Key Points:

- Thunderstorms, Some Severe, Likely This Evening into Tonight

- Another Round of Severe Storms Possible Thursday Night into Friday
  Morning

- Drier and Warmer for the Weekend into Next Week

As of 230 PM Tuesday afternoon, zonal midlevel flow remains across
the central US with a shortwave trough ejecting into eastern WY. An
weakly defined surface pressure pattern resides across the region
with multiple weak frontal zones. For the short term, a weak frontal
zone was present across southern NE and may be the focal point for
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into the evening.
Should a storm develop, the background environment is favorable for
splitting supercells with predominately a large hail threat. A
narrow zone, immediately within the boundary zone, has backed low-
level winds that could support a brief tornado threat.

Confidence increases for more-widespread thunderstorm activity late
this evening into the overnight hours. The aforementioned midlevel
shortwave trough was interacting with an unstable zone across
eastern WY and contributing to supercell thunderstorm development.
These supercells are likely to remain discrete or semi-discrete
through much of the evening before a gradual upscale growth ensues
across central NE or even northern KS. The timing of upscale growth
will be critical to the associated hazards across north-central KS
and the remainder of the area. Should convective mode remain semi-
discrete, all hazards would remain possible including, large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A more-linear mode would
support a damaging wind threat and possibly a hail threat. This
round of thunderstorm activity looks to arrive to the area after 9-
10 PM and exiting the area to the southeast between 4-7 AM.
Contemplated a Flood Watch for the central and east-central KS
counties with the recent rainfall and swollen rivers. Due to the
progressive nature of the MCS and the threat for upshear propagation
remaining west of the area have held off on a Flood Watch for now.

A brief reprieve from thunderstorm chances arrives Wednesday as
surface ridging moves into the central Plains. The active weather
pattern returns Thursday evening into Friday morning as a midlevel
shortwave trough ejects into the Plains. Sufficient instability and
shear will be in place for a severe weather threat. For Friday
afternoon and the weekend, a drier pattern emerges for the weekend
as midlevel ridging overspreads the central Plains. Otherwise,
daytime highs will remain near 80 each afternoon with overnight lows
in the 50s/60s. The ridge is forecast to amplify early next week,
resulting in temperatures reaching the 90s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

CAMs continue to show a linear MCS moving across the area late
this evening. With storms already going over the high plains and a
weak boundary lingering to the north, confidence in TS impacting
the terminals is increasing. Will use the CAMs as a first guess on
timing the storms at the terminals. Would expect some tempo MVFR
CIGS and VSBY as the storms pass through. Most of the activity
should be exiting around 12Z with high pressure and VFR conditions
building in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Baerg
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-081945-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated storms are possible this afternoon into the early
evening. Any storm that develops this afternoon into the early
evening will be capable of large hail and possibly a tornado.
Thunderstorms are likely late this evening into the overnight
hours. These storms may be severe with damaging winds as the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of severe storms are possible Thursday evening into
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1042 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE CONCORDIA         39.55N 97.65W
06/07/2022  M72 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCNK CONCORDIA.

&&

MF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1045 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE CONCORDIA         39.55N 97.65W
06/07/2022  M72 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM 2 SSE CONCORDIA. ASOS STATION KCNK
            CONCORDIA.

&&

MF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1048 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW LINN              39.70N 97.12W
06/07/2022  E60 MPH          WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MF