Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
238 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Key messages:

1.  Severe weather is possible mainly over far northeastern and east
central Kansas this evening.

2.  The heat ramps up Sunday afternoon with heat indices from 105-
110 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued.

3.  Heat concerns continue through mid next week with several days
of heat indices around 100 degrees.

Highly conditional, yet potentially high impact setup for severe
weather this afternoon, particularly over far northeast and east
central Kansas. Temps this afternoon have quickly climbed into the
low 90s while dewpoints have peaked into the low 70s. A weak sfc
boundary from southeast NE into northern MO has been the source for
a few elevated, non-severe cells shifting into northeast KS this
afternoon. Cloud bases are pretty high around 10-12 kft and are
tapping into some of the instability, however given the strong EML
holding on, have not grown to severe limits. A few of the HREF
members hinted at this scenario of weak showers and isolated thunder
continuing to impact far northeast Kansas for the next 1-2 hours
before the severe convection develops along the front further to the
northwest in NE and IA from 21-23Z.  As these storms move south and
southeastward, EML weakens as sfc CAPE climbs over 5000 J/KG by
early evening. Forecast soundings over far northeast into east
central KS depict ample effective bulk shear over 50 kts while
clockwise curved hodographs within 0-3 KM are conducive for all
hazards as a possibility. If the cells are discrete supercells,
tornado concerns increase given the environment, however it appears
more likely updrafts merge into a cluster or line tracking southward
over MO, clipping far eastern KS after 23Z. Very large hail and
damaging wind gusts around 70 mph are the more likely hazards with
these storms. Convection exits the CWA around 05Z as the frontal
boundary settles near the KS/NE border.

Lingering cloud cover and ample moisture warms overnight lows to the
middle 70s, priming Sunday for an even hotter afternoon as sfc
moisture pools along and just north of the weak boundary bisecting
the CWA. Models are in general consensus for middle to potentially
upper 70s while highs are progged in the middle 90s, resulting in
heat indices from 105 to 110 degrees.  A Heat Advisory has been
issued for the entire forecast area through 9 PM.

The passing upper ridge across the central CONUS gives way to an
southwest flow pattern and thunderstorm complex developing off the
high plains Sunday. Latest model runs are trending slower with this
system and further north, perhaps only impacting north central KS
late Sunday evening.

The excessive heat continues through Wednesday as the upper ridge
amplifies in response to a developing low pressure system over the
Pacific Northwest.  Fortunately low levels are more mixed with wind
gusts in the afternoon, alleviating heat indices slightly between
100 and 105 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

VFR prevails with latest satellite observing increasing mid level
high clouds impacting terminals during the afternoon. May also
see occasional wind gusts to 20 kts before winds weaken blo 10 kts
aft 00Z. Diurnal cumulus builds by late afternoon with focus for
TSRA developing north and east of KTOP/KFOE. Latest guidance is
mostly consistent in TSRA remaining east of terminals in the 03Z-05Z
time frame so have removed VCTS mention. This will be the focus
for updates at next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...22
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
248 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-122000-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
248 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across the entire outlook area this
evening with the highest chance for severe storms being along and
east of a line from Marysville to Topeka to Ottawa. Main hazards
would be very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, especially if storms that develop are
discreet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heat indices from 105 to 110 degrees are expected Sunday afternoon
for the entire outlook area.  A Heat Advisory is in effect.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf