Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
307 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue moving west southwest
across the interior this afternoon and expect more coverage once
these reach the west coast sea breeze near the west coast later
this afternoon and evening. All of the convection will move out
into the gulf later this evening with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight. Wednesday looks like a repeat of today as
the east to northeast low level flow persists with enough moisture
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The main
difference will be the timing as the east to northeast flow will
be a little stronger bringing the convection westward a couple of
hours sooner than today.

For Thursday the easterly flow will persist, but weaker than
Wednesday. Plenty of moisture will still be in place, especially
from the Interstate 4 corridor southward, to allow more scattered
to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection with the
highest PoPs over the southern interior and southwest Florida.

For Friday through Saturday the forecast is highly dependent on
the future development or lack thereof of a possible tropical
system moving across the southeast Gulf of Mexico. At this time
expect breezy conditions to develop Friday into Saturday with
scattered to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms,
highest rain chances across the south.

Early next week easterly flow returns with a pretty typical summer
thunderstorm pattern with scattered convection each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening will cause
brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys along with some higher wind gusts.
Winds will be out of the east to northeast at 7 to 10 knots,
except becoming west to northwest later this afternoon with the
sea breeze at TPA, PIE, and SRQ. Light east to northeast winds
return later this evening then increase to 7 to 10 knots again
during Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain easterly for the next few days, though a shift
to onshore is expected with the sea breeze each afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late each
afternoon and evening, moving offshore from land. No headlines are
expected, though winds could briefly increase to the 15 to 20
knot range each evening. Late in the week an area of low pressure
could move across the southeast gulf increasing winds to advisory
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy east to northeast winds will lead to rather high dispersion
values Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels through the week with no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  92  75  92 /  30  50  10  40
FMY  71  91  72  91 /  40  60  20  60
GIF  71  90  71  92 /  10  50  10  40
SRQ  71  90  71  89 /  40  60  20  40
BKV  67  92  67  92 /  20  40  10  40
SPG  74  89  75  88 /  40  50  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 3

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Close

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
557 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

FLZ162-165-262-265-312300-
Coastal Charlotte FL-Inland Charlotte FL-Inland Lee FL-
Coastal Lee FL-
557 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central
Charlotte and Lee Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 556 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lehigh Acres to near Matlacha Isles-Matlacha
Shores. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Punta Gorda, Lehigh Acres,
East Dunbar, Matlacha, Palmona Park, Southwest Florida Airport,
Harlem Heights, Lochmoor Waterway Estates, Iona, Cypress Lake, Pine
Island Center, San Carlos Park, McGregor, Pine Manor, Charleston
Park, Lovers Key State Park and Matlacha Isles-Matlacha Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8182 2632 8186 2644 8223 2662 8231
      2687 8208 2677 8157 2642 8156 2642 8166
      2632 8166 2632 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 035DEG 12KT 2658 8163 2671 8206

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
611 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             2 N JASMINE ESTATES     28.32N 82.69W
05/31/2022  E0.25 INCH       PASCO              FL   PUBLIC

&&

CJP

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