Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
259 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

At 500 mb, a westward-moving inverted trough is currently located
along an axis from roughly TPA-JAX. Immediately in advance of this
axis, there is a narrow wedge of drier mid-level air that
satellite-derived PW imagery shows from about Cross City to
Valdosta. As this narrow area of drier air moves west across the
FL Big Bend and SW GA, the dry air entrainment will aid in the
gustiness of air mass thunderstorms this afternoon.

Meanwhile, deeper moisture (PWs of 2+ inches) is still hanging on
over the FL Panhandle and SE AL. Light steering flow will lead to
slow-moving thunderstorms in the moisture-rich environment. This
is a recipe for spots of heavy rainfall in excess of 3 inches.

As the mid-level trough axis moves west this afternoon and
evening across the Suwanee Valley, deeper moisture will fill in
behind the trough axis and spread in from the east. It should
cause an active Atlantic seabreeze front to move west along the
I-10 corridor, possibly spreading west all the way to Tallahassee
during the evening hours.

Overnight, the trough axis and deepening moisture across the Gulf
waters will lead to a convectively active late night across the
Gulf waters and along the immediate coast from about St. Marks
westward.

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

A fairly wet pattern continues for the short term and long term
period. An inverted trough will continue to push westward across the
region, eventually ending up along the central Gulf coast around
midweek. Although deep tropical moisture remains across the area, a
gradient of moisture is expected to set up with higher PW values to
the west and slightly drier air to the east. While showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the entire area each afternoon,
higher coverage is expected generally across the Florida Panhandle,
western Big Bend, and SE Alabama.

Heading into the weekend, a large trough is forecast to drop
southward over the eastern CONUS with northwest steering flow
overhead. This trough may drag a weak front southward into the
region before eventually stalling. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front, with
slightly drier air to the north. Where exactly this front sets up
will ultimately determine the PoP gradient as well.

High temperatures through the period are forecast in the upper 80s
to low 90s with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

The main challenge is with timing the passage of summer
thunderstorms. Radar currently shows a cluster of thunderstorms
from near TLH to PAM, moving slowly west. This will encroach on
ECP in 1 or 2 more hours. Another round of late afternoon thunder
will move west past VLD late this afternoon and early this
evening, possibly reaching TLH late this evening. Otherwise,
weaker thunderstorms are currently east of ABY, moving slowly
west. DHN has the lowest chance of seeing any thunder.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected through
much of the week with a shift to the west by Thursday. Daily
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the waters, with
gusty winds and waterspouts possible. Outside of showers and
thunderstorms, fair boating conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A generally wet pattern is expected over the next week with
daily scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Generally good dispersions are expected with no fire weather
issues anticipated. Relative humidity should remain well
above critical thresholds with a moist tropical airmass
overhead.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A wetter pattern will persist through the upcoming week with locally
heavy rainfall possible each day. While isolated flooding of urban
or poor drainage areas is possible, widespread flooding and river
flooding is not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  73  92  73 /  30  50  20  60  20
Panama City   74  89  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  70  40
Dothan        71  91  71  91  71 /  20  50  10  60  20
Albany        73  92  72  93  73 /  30  50  20  50  20
Valdosta      72  92  72  94  72 /  40  50  20  50  10
Cross City    72  93  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  50  20
Apalachicola  76  88  77  88  77 /  40  60  30  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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