Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
259 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

At 500 mb, a westward-moving inverted trough is currently located
along an axis from roughly TPA-JAX. Immediately in advance of this
axis, there is a narrow wedge of drier mid-level air that
satellite-derived PW imagery shows from about Cross City to
Valdosta. As this narrow area of drier air moves west across the
FL Big Bend and SW GA, the dry air entrainment will aid in the
gustiness of air mass thunderstorms this afternoon.

Meanwhile, deeper moisture (PWs of 2+ inches) is still hanging on
over the FL Panhandle and SE AL. Light steering flow will lead to
slow-moving thunderstorms in the moisture-rich environment. This
is a recipe for spots of heavy rainfall in excess of 3 inches.

As the mid-level trough axis moves west this afternoon and
evening across the Suwanee Valley, deeper moisture will fill in
behind the trough axis and spread in from the east. It should
cause an active Atlantic seabreeze front to move west along the
I-10 corridor, possibly spreading west all the way to Tallahassee
during the evening hours.

Overnight, the trough axis and deepening moisture across the Gulf
waters will lead to a convectively active late night across the
Gulf waters and along the immediate coast from about St. Marks
westward.

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

A fairly wet pattern continues for the short term and long term
period. An inverted trough will continue to push westward across the
region, eventually ending up along the central Gulf coast around
midweek. Although deep tropical moisture remains across the area, a
gradient of moisture is expected to set up with higher PW values to
the west and slightly drier air to the east. While showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the entire area each afternoon,
higher coverage is expected generally across the Florida Panhandle,
western Big Bend, and SE Alabama.

Heading into the weekend, a large trough is forecast to drop
southward over the eastern CONUS with northwest steering flow
overhead. This trough may drag a weak front southward into the
region before eventually stalling. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front, with
slightly drier air to the north. Where exactly this front sets up
will ultimately determine the PoP gradient as well.

High temperatures through the period are forecast in the upper 80s
to low 90s with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]

The main challenge is with timing the passage of summer
thunderstorms. Radar currently shows a cluster of thunderstorms
from near TLH to PAM, moving slowly west. This will encroach on
ECP in 1 or 2 more hours. Another round of late afternoon thunder
will move west past VLD late this afternoon and early this
evening, possibly reaching TLH late this evening. Otherwise,
weaker thunderstorms are currently east of ABY, moving slowly
west. DHN has the lowest chance of seeing any thunder.

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected through
much of the week with a shift to the west by Thursday. Daily
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the waters, with
gusty winds and waterspouts possible. Outside of showers and
thunderstorms, fair boating conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A generally wet pattern is expected over the next week with
daily scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Generally good dispersions are expected with no fire weather
issues anticipated. Relative humidity should remain well
above critical thresholds with a moist tropical airmass
overhead.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A wetter pattern will persist through the upcoming week with locally
heavy rainfall possible each day. While isolated flooding of urban
or poor drainage areas is possible, widespread flooding and river
flooding is not anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  73  92  73 /  30  50  20  60  20
Panama City   74  89  75  89  76 /  30  50  30  70  40
Dothan        71  91  71  91  71 /  20  50  10  60  20
Albany        73  92  72  93  73 /  30  50  20  50  20
Valdosta      72  92  72  94  72 /  40  50  20  50  10
Cross City    72  93  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  50  20
Apalachicola  76  88  77  88  77 /  40  60  30  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
244 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

FLZ010>014-026-112-081915-
Coastal Bay FL-Liberty FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Inland Gulf FL-
Jackson FL-Washington FL-
244 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Jackson,
northwestern Gulf, Bay and Calhoun Counties in the Panhandle of
Florida, northwestern Liberty County in Big Bend of Florida and
southeastern Washington Counties in the Panhandle of Florida through
315 PM EDT/215 PM CDT/...

At 244 PM EDT/144 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles north of
Blountstown to 20 miles northwest of Stonemill Creek to near Tyndall
Air Force Base. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Callaway, Blountstown,
Springfield, Hiland Park, Tyndall Air Force Base, Parker, Altha, Rock
Bluff, Moose Pond, Clarksville, Ocheesee, Selman, Abe Springs,
Allanton, Dirego Park, College Station and West Panama City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 8556 3076 8512 3057 8488 3053 8488
      3053 8483 3033 8520 2991 8548 2994 8559
      3013 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 120DEG 13KT 3056 8502 3040 8533 3006 8563

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Haner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E SAINT ANDREWS STATE 30.13N 85.72W
08/08/2022  M40 MPH          GMZ750             FL   MESONET

            WIND GUST OF 40 MPH OVER ST. ANDREWS BAY.

&&

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
309 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E CARRABELLE          29.85N 84.64W
08/08/2022  M40 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1497W FSWN ISLAND VIEW PARK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N MAGNOLIA BEACH      30.19N 85.73W
08/08/2022  M51 MPH          BAY                FL   MESONET

            WIND GUST OF 51MPH OVER GULF COAST STATE
            COLLEGE.

&&

JM

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