Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
320 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday]...

The squall line that currently stretches from southwest Georgia into
the western Florida Panhandle will continue to move to the east into
a favorable atmosphere characterized by 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 45-
55 kt of effective shear, and a 40-50 kt. LLJ. This will continue to
move eastward through the area tonight, though the storms should
gradually weaken as they move into the Big Bend and south central
GA. However, destructive winds to 70 mph and tornadoes (some
possibly strong). A Tornado Watch remains in effect for most of
south Georgia and most Florida counties until 7pm ET. It's possible
that the line of storms lays out more east-west later this evening,
which could lead to some training of storms and possible flash
flooding. Once the storms move out of our area and/or weaken,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could redevelop overnight,
especially over our Florida and far southern Georgia counties.
These, however, are not expected to be severe. Patchy fog could
develop overnight across the Florida counties and southern Georgia
and Alabama given the rain and worked-over atmosphere.

On Wednesday, another shortwave moves along the Gulf Coast,
triggering possibly another round of showers and storms. There is
uncertainty regarding tomorrow's severe weather chances as it's
questionable how much the atmosphere recovers. If convection
refires, this round will likely be much more disorganized and will
exhibit more of a multicell cluster rather than an organized line.
Looking at some area model soundings, we will be looking at a high
CAPE/lower shear environment with steep lapse rates on the order of
7-8 C/km. CAPE may easily climb into the 2000-3000 J/kg range,
especially if we get some clearing skies tomorrow afternoon.
However, shear will be lacking with only about 20-30 knots of deep
layer shear and about 20-30 knots of low-level shear. The primary
risks with tomorrow's storms appear to be large hail and damaging
wind gusts, but an isolated tornado still cannot be ruled out. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from Albany to Tifton
northward in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather (level 3 of 5) and
most elsewhere in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5).

Outside of storms, winds could still be rather gusty (20-30 mph).
Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

Another shortwave trough in the southern stream is expected to
move along the northern Gulf of Mexico during the day on
Wednesday. This will likely lead to much of the forcing for ascent
across the region for Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The
trajectory of this shortwave brings it directly from the Mexican
Plateau into our region Wednesday and Wednesday night. From this
trajectory, very steep lapse rates are expected to be associated
with this shortwave through the mid levels. These lapse rates,
which are expected to be between 7-8 degree C/Km will lead to a
very unstable airmass across the region. With that said, the
low level shear will not be as high as it was today, which will
lead to a slightly less tornado threat across the region. The deep
layer shear is expected to be around 20-30 knots tomorrow. Another
limiting factor will be how much the airmass at the surface can
recover behind todays and tonights thunderstorms. Overall, due to
the lapse rates over the area tomorrow, forecast instability
across the region are expected to be near 3000 + J/Kg of CAPE.
With these values of CAPE across the region Wednesday and
Wednesday night, the main threat with any storms that develop will
be large and destructive hail, as well as damaging winds.

Overnight Wednesday, the main cold front that is associated with a
much larger upper level trough that is slowly approaching the area
could potentially lead to additional severe weather; however, how
much instability is left over across the region due to earlier
convection will determine the overall convective evolution through
the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Beyond Thursday, The strong upper level trough and subsequent cold
front that is expected to move into the area overnight Wednesday
and into Thursday will end all thunderstorm activity across the
region. Much cooler and drier air is expected to move into the
southeast for the end of this work week and for the first half of
the weekend. With the strong upper level trough becoming quasi-
stationary across the eastern conus for several days, cooler and
windier conditions will remain in place for several days. Winds
across the area are not expected to relax until late Saturday as
surface high pressure moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico. With
surface high pressure over head for the beginning of the work
week, rather quiet and tranquil weather can be expected.
Temperatures will also start to rebound by Sunday as upper level
ridging develops in conjunction with the surface high pressure
moving into the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

A squall line is approaching DHN and should be at the terminal in
the next hour or so. The squall line will continue to advance
eastward through the terminals through this evening, bringing
potentially gusty winds up to 50 knots in the strongest cells.
Outside of storms, winds will remain gusty out of the south to south-
southeast. After the storms clear late this evening, some hi- res
guidance hints at some redevelopment of showers overnight.
Additionally, some fog may develop overnight tonight with CIGs
dropping to IFR across much of the area. After about 14z, winds will
pick up again and CIGs should lift into lower-end MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...

Southeast breezes will continue to remain breezy today in advance
of an intense squall line that will move across inland zones and
possibly along the northern marine zones this afternoon and early
evening. With strong wind gusts and increased seas across the most
extreme western marine zones today and tonight, the Small Craft
Advisory will remain in effect through the early overnight hours. A
cold front will move through the region on Thursday evening with
strong northwest winds behind the front later Thursday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move across the forecast area late Wednesday night
into Thursday. Warm temperatures, higher mixing heights, and
increased transport winds will result in high dispersions in
southeast Alabama on Wednesday outside of storms with good
dispersions elsewhere. Increasing mixing heights and elevated
transport winds Thursday and Friday will lead to high to very high
dispersions across the entire area. Minimum RH values will also drop
off into the upper 20s and 30s Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With the current severe threat still underway, and the squall line
finally taking shape, a more clear picture of rainfall amounts
will develop over the next several hours. Currently our SE
Alabama and extreme western Florida Panhandle counties have been
the only ones to see rainfall today, and they have observed
between 1-3 inches thus far. Luckily the squall line has started
to quickly propagate eastward, which will cut rainfall totals for
our area. The main concern today is if the southern portion gets
hung up, and becomes stalled along the Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend regions. This could lead to localized flash flooding if
storms start to train in a west/east line. If this occurs,
rainfall totals could exceed 6 inches in places. While it is
difficult to pin down these exact areas currently, the threat
appears high enough to keep the flood watch for most of the area
through Wednesday night. Some rivers, including the Withlacoochee,
Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and St Marks, are currently still running
in action stage to start this event, which further supports the
flood watch.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   68  81  62  77  49 /  90  80  80  10   0
Panama City   69  78  60  74  53 /  80  80  70  10   0
Dothan        66  81  56  72  46 /  70  80  70   0   0
Albany        67  82  60  73  47 /  90  80  80  10   0
Valdosta      66  81  64  76  49 /  90  80  70  30   0
Cross City    68  82  66  80  52 /  60  70  70  40   0
Apalachicola  69  77  62  74  53 /  80  80  80  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Bunker

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     DE FUNIAK SPRING AIRPOR 30.73N 86.15W
04/05/2022  M48 MPH          WALTON             FL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K54J DE FUNIAK SPRNGS.

&&

WD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     DE FUNIAK SPRING AIRPOR 30.73N 86.15W
04/05/2022  M48 MPH          WALTON             FL   AWOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM
            DE FUNIAK SPRING AIRPORT. AWOS STATION K54J
            DE FUNIAK SPRNGS.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     HEADLAND MUNICIPAL A/P  31.36N 85.31W
04/05/2022  M49 MPH          HENRY              AL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION K0J6 HEADLAND MUNICIPAL
            AIRPORT REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF
            49 MPH.

&&

KO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT TUE APR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     TSTM WND GST     NAPIER FIELD            31.32N 85.45W
04/05/2022  M43 MPH          DALE               AL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KDHN DOTHAN REPORTED A
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 43 MPH.

&&

KO