Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1050 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.UPDATE...

The squall line is now in MOB's area, from about Thomasville, AL
to Hattiesburg, MS. We're starting the see the line bow out in
southwest Alabama, and that will be moving into our area early
this afternoon. Our 12z KTAE sounding showed favorable conditions
for severe weather with increasing CAPE, steep lapse rates, and
increasing shear.

With the steep lapse rates this morning, some of the isolated
storms ahead of the line could produce some large hail. We've seen
this observed in MOB's and BMX's service areas. Instability is
increasing across MOB's area with SPC Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg. As the day progresses, the low-
level jet will increase ahead of the storms to about 50 to 60
knots with a rear-inflow jet behind the storms. Instability is
also expected to increase this afternoon ahead of the storms.
This sets up a widespread damaging to destructive wind event
becoming possible for our area, especially along and north of I-10
where SPC has a 45% wind risk outlined. Given the strong wind
fields and curving hodographs, there is also the potential for
tornadoes, some of which could be strong. This potential appears
greatest in southeast Alabama into southwestern Georgia.

The squall line could become more east-west oriented over north
Florida, which could increase the flash flood threat later this
afternoon into this evening. There's still some uncertainty in how
this will eventually evolve.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [622 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Bottom Line: A severe squall line, currently organizing in the
ArkLaTex, will race towards the southeast overnight. Upon arrival
later this morning, one can expect destructive winds of 70 mph, a
couple of strong tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall to
accompany the line. SPC has expanded their enhanced risk of
severe weather today southward to include most of I-10 including
Leon county.

Details: A shortwave trough will move across the Gulf coast today.
Low level winds will increase markedly through the day, with non-
convective winds at the surface approaching 30-35 mph. Low level
jet southwesterly winds ramp up to 40-60 knots with the strongest
of these winds over our Alabama and southern Georgia counties.
This is key to SPC raising the threat probability of damaging
winds to 45% in these areas today, aside from general
expectations of damaging winds associated with a squall line in
general.

A warm front will surge northward this morning as the low level
winds increase. Do expect some thunderstorms to develop as the
front moves by, as evident off the coast of Alabama currently.
There is some elevated instability above the nocturnal/frontal
inversion so perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two could develop
this morning before the line arrives.

Along with the wind field, instability will increase and juxtapose
with the strong winds. MLCAPE will reach the 1000-1500 J/kg through
the day which will fuel the line as it moves into our area. The past
several events had high shear but low CAPE, and this event will
feature both, so expect a marked rise in the threat level compared
to previous events.

Low level shear is on the order of 150-250 m2/s2, STP and EHI of 1-
3, and curved hodographs suggest an elevated tornado risk, a few
could be strong. The greatest tornado risk right now appears to be
across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where SPC has
outlined a 10% risk, which is significant.

In general, timing of the line will be into southeast Alabama and
the western Florida panhandle late this morning then progressing
eastward through the day, and into the Florida eastern Big Bend
late this afternoon and early evening. There are some indications
of redevelopment of storms into the overnight period along the
state borders which would add credence to a developing heavy rain
event which will roll into the short term period. Reference the
hydro section for more details.

Everyone should review their severe weather safety plans, have
multiple ways to receive warnings, and know where their safe place
is, whether at work or at home.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

Key Points

1) Large hail and damaging winds are currently the main severe
weather threats on Wednesday, but a couple of tornadoes still
cannot be ruled out.

2) Localized heavy rainfall and flooding also cannot be ruled out
as multiple rounds of storms pile up the rainfall in some
instances. A flood watch has been issued through Wednesday night
for most of the area.

Details

By Wednesday, the atmosphere will be reloading as the main upper
trough digs southward across the central states. Wednesday is
expected to be a high CAPE, lower shear environment. The
triggering mechanism for convection is expected to come from
another weak shortwave traversing the Gulf coast states in
addition to leftover surface boundaries from Tuesday's convection.
Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to advect into the area
on top of rich low level moisture, contributing to a large, fat
CAPE profile with afternoon heating. The tornado threat appears a
little lower on Wednesday compared to Tuesday given less shear
expected overall, but it remains non-zero. Both damaging winds and
large hail are also possible given the amount of instability
expected during the afternoon. In addition, by this time the
ground will likely have been saturated across the area from
Tuesday's convection, thus flooding potential will be increased
with any training convection.

By Wednesday night, the main cold front is expected to approach
the area with additional severe weather possible, although how
unstable the atmosphere is ahead of the cold front by this time
will depend on the convective evolution during the day on
Wednesday.

The front will exit the area on Thursday morning with a return to
dry weather.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The large upper trough will move away from the area this weekend
with upper ridging replacing it. A new, large trough is expected
to dig across the western states early next week, but our area is
expected to remain dry through Tuesday with seasonal
temperatures.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]

Lowered cigs are arriving from the west ahead of the anticipated
squall line which will make its way into our western areas later
this morning. DHN/ECP will be affected first then moving east
through the day. Cigs will decrease and vsbys will be affected by
heavy rain in storms. Severe weather is likely with destructive
winds and isolated tornadoes. Thunderstorm threat will continue
into the overnight period and kept VCTS going through 12Z.

.MARINE...

Southeast breezes will gradually freshen today in advance of an
intense squall line that will cross the waters this afternoon and
early evening. A brief decrease in wind is expected for the middle
of the week on Wednesday and Thursday; however, seas will remain
elevated at cautionary levels during this time frame. A cold front
will move through the region on Thursday evening with strong
breezes returning later Thursday night.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low level winds will increase this morning ahead of a developing
squall line which will move into our area beginning later this
morning. Severe thunderstorms are expected with destructive winds
and isolated tornadoes. A prolonged heavy rainfall event is
shaping up as well beginning today into Wednesday night. Another
round of severe weather is likely Wednesday. A cold front will
sweep through early Thursday bringing much cooler and drier air
back into the region through the weekend.

.HYDROLOGY...

Several rounds of convection are possible through Wednesday night
with widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches expected across
most of the area. However, localized higher amounts over 5 inches
are likely in areas that experience multiple rounds of
thunderstorms. While it is difficult to pin down these exact
areas currently, the threat appears high enough to issue a flood
watch for most of the area through Wednesday night. Some rivers,
including the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and St Marks,
are currently still running in action stage to start this event,
which further supports the flood watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  68  81  66  77 /  80  90  80  70  10
Panama City   77  69  78  63  74 /  90  80  80  70  10
Dothan        77  66  81  58  71 /  90  70  80  70   0
Albany        79  67  82  62  73 /  90  90  80  70  10
Valdosta      82  66  81  66  75 /  90  90  80  70  20
Cross City    82  68  82  67  79 /  50  60  70  80  40
Apalachicola  77  69  77  66  74 /  70  80  80  80  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE...Young
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...DVD