Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
851 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...New NEAR TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 846 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will
continue through the next few hours. The main line of storms is
expected to reach the western counties of the CWA beginning around
9pm CT and march east through the night into tomorrow morning.
Strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. A
Tornado Watch is currently in effect through 2am ET. Be sure to
have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially while you're
sleeping tonight!

The QLCS will begin to gradually weaken as upper level support
moves off to the north and the stable layer near the surface
strengthens with eastern extent. The QLCS is expected to move out
of the CWA by the late morning, ushering in clear and dry
conditions as high pressure builds in its wake. High temperatures
are expected to range from the low 60s to low 70s and overnight
lows will drop into the low 40s as a dry, cold continental airmass
envelops the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 358 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

In the wake of the strong cold frontal passage on Thursday, a much
cooler and drier air mass is in store for Thursday Night. Lows
away the coast will range from the mid-30s to mid-40s. A continued
dry air mass through Friday Night as high pressure gradually
builds in. High temperatures on Friday mostly in the 60s, which is
near average, falling back to the mid-30s to mid-40s Friday
Night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

From this weekend into the middle of next week, we'll be watching
a couple southern stream systems lead to the development of waves
of low pressure in the gulf. The first opportunity for showers is
Saturday and Saturday Night, with the highest chances south of a
Valdosta to Panama City line. The next chance of precip looks to
be Monday Night thru Tuesday Night, and may be more significant.
Overall, with low tracks expected to remain south of the area, we
kept thunder out of the forecast, as instability is lacking attm.
The bigger story may be highs only reaching the 50s this weekend
into early next week, and combined with the aforementioned clouds/
precip, would make it feel raw at times. The precip timing as well
as temps will be fine tuned, as there is uncertainty. For example,
temps have the potential to run warmer than currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are making their way into
our CWA this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will continue
through this evening. TLH and VLD may experience LLWS before the
squall line between 02z and 05z. The main line of storms, some of
which will be severe with strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes,
is expected to arrive at our western terminals between 05-08z. The
squall line will travel east through the overnight and morning
hours and should begin clearing out of the region around 14z with
some lingering showers behind. During the storms, expect IFR cigs
and low vsbys during the heavier rains. Following the rains, the
winds will shift to the northwest due to the frontal passage. The
winds may still be gusting up to 20kts into the afternoon. Cigs
will begin to lift late in the morning and we can expect clear
skies by 12z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 837 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

A strong cold front will move across the coastal waters tonight
into Thursday. Preceding this front, winds will increase ahead of
a fast moving line of severe thunderstorms, which will sweep
across the waters from west to east late this evening into
Thursday morning. These storms will be capable of producing
waterspouts and gusty winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
thru Thursday. In addition, brief gale force wind gusts are
possible mainly west of the Ochlocknee River, well ahead of the
line of severe thunderstorms. Looking ahead, more tranquil
conditions will return on Friday into Saturday. North to northeast
winds will increase to around 20 knots on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

A cold front will bring storms to the area tonight with a
wetting rain to much of the region. Past this, a cold and dry
continental airmass will fill in which will raise the fire ceiling
and drop RH values to near critical values through the period. No
fire weather concerns are expected at this point in time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight into
Thursday morning mainly west of an Albany to Tallahassee line. As
a squall line tracks across the tri-state region during this time
frame, localized rainfall amounts of 1 to perhaps 2 inches are
possible. Given the dry antecedent conditions, main concern is
ponding of water in low-lying/urban areas leading to minor
flooding. Looking ahead, next chance of any meaningful rainfall is
Monday Night into Tuesday Night, the bulk of which looks to
remain south of I-10 attm.

&&

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
severe weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  68  42  64 / 100  50   0   0
Panama City   56  64  45  64 / 100  10   0   0
Dothan        52  61  38  60 / 100  10   0   0
Albany        57  64  39  61 / 100  30   0   0
Valdosta      61  68  40  63 /  90  70   0   0
Cross City    66  73  44  67 /  70  90   0   0
Apalachicola  61  68  45  65 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for GMZ730-750-752-
     755-765-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Montgomery/Worster
SHORT TERM...Franck
LONG TERM....Franck
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Franck
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Franck

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