Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
251 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fairly dynamic forecast period today and tonight with the potential
for severe weather this morning, followed by strong and gusty winds
today, and sub freezing temperatures tonight.

Cold front is located through southern Alabama with a thin line of
showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Further east, showers
and thunderstorms continue through the Gulf waters into the Big
Bend. Severe threat continues with a tornado watch in effect through
6AM ET. Most of the instability remains offshore but shear is strong
underneath a 50 knot LLJ. Isolated tornadoes and strong winds will
remain the main threats. The front will sweep through with most rain
exiting our eastern sections by mid morning. Behind the front,
strong and gusty northwest winds take over ushering in a cooler and
drier airmass. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph this afternoon with
highs not making it out of the 40s and 50s through much of the area.

Winds will decrease later this afternoon and evening with skies
clearing allowing low temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 20s
area wide with a widespread freeze expected. Any plants that have
bloomed from the recent warmer temperatures should be protected
tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Mid/upper flow turns zonal as surface high pressure slides
through the southeast. This will set up a cool and dry Sunday with
highs mainly in the 50s. Winds turn to the east through the day
Sunday as the surface high pressure center moves offshore. This
will allow highs on Monday to recover into the upper 60s and low
70s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A cutoff low will slowly slide across the Southeast Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing another round of unsettled weather. At the
surface, an area of low pressure will form across over eastern
Texas and move into the lower MS Valley into Tuesday. This low may
occlude along the Gulf Coast with possibly a secondary area of low
pressure forming over our marine area. Any severe threat will
ultimately depend on the track of the low. Based on the current
forecast, and a lack of sufficient airmass recovery, any severe
threat currently looks to be low-end and confined to the Big Bend
coast. Regardless, however, it does appear to be we again with
rain chances around 80-90%. This will also help keep highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

Once the low clears our region on Wednesday, things will dry out
again before another longwave trough digs into the Southeast next
weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible, but it remains too early to assess any severe weather
potential at this time. Highs will be in the middle 70s to near
80 with lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

Band of showers and storms resides through the Gulf waters into the
Florida Big Bend. To the west, line of storms is getting organized
ahead of a cold front and mid level trough. Low level flow is
increasing dramatically and winds at the surface is increasing as
well. Each TAF site has a good chance to experience storms overnight
with a severe threat as well. Post frontal winds will be strong as
well as directions switch to the northwest.
Gusts 30-40 knots will be common even after the convection has moved
to the east. Winds will remain strong through the day then relax in
the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Gale conditions are expected today behind a powerful cold front.
Gusts of 45 to 50 knots cannot be ruled out, especially well
offshore west of Apalachicola. Small craft advisory conditions
will continue into tonight with winds and seas subsiding below
advisory levels on Sunday. This respite is brief, however, as
winds and seas increase again ahead of an area of low pressure
Monday night into Tuesday, possibly to advisory levels. This
system will also bring widespread showers with a few
thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms will decrease from west to east early
today as a cold front sweeps through the area. Strong and gusty
northwest winds are expected today with decreasing dewpoints and RH
values through the day. Sustained winds today will be on the order
of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph likely. Afternoon relative
humidity values will fall into the upper 20 to mid 30 percent range.
RH values Sunday afternoon will be even less but winds will not be
as strong.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Several rounds of rain have brought about 4-8 inches to pars of
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, primarily along and south of a
Panama City to Madison line. The rest of the area has seen about
1-3 inches with the lowest amounts in our northern counties. As
the rain continues to exit the area, there is still the
possibility of another 2-4 inches of rain in the Big Bend with
about 1 inch elsewhere. This could cause some localized flash
flooding in the Big Bend where the ground is most soaked and where
storms train.

As far as the riverine impacts, it appears that if river flooding
were to occur, it would be primarily confined to the Steinhatchee
and Sopchoppy Rivers. However, flood levels are only expected to
be minor in the coming days, if it were to occur. Some rises are
possible along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee, but these should
remain below flood stage.

Looking toward our next system on Tuesday into Wednesday, there is
the potential for about another inch or two of rainfall. Some
ensemble guidance suggests that the coastal Big Bend could see
some higher totals of 2-4 inches. However, will wait until this
current event clears before assessing flood threats from the next
system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  27  58  36  70 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  30  58  42  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        46  26  55  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        50  26  56  34  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      59  27  57  36  70 /  40   0   0   0   0
Cross City    71  28  60  39  73 /  70   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  56  30  56  45  66 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison.

     Freeze Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 10 AM
     EDT /9 AM CDT/ Sunday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch until 11 AM EST this morning for Brooks-Decatur-
     Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

     Freeze Warning from 10 PM EST this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from 9 PM CST this evening to 9 AM CDT Sunday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Young
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Young

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW SOPCHOPPY          30.08N 84.51W
03/12/2022                   WAKULLA            FL   UTILITY COMPANY

            FALLEN TREES OR LIMBS RESULTED IN A POWER
            OUTAGE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SOPCHOPPY
            VIA THE DUKE ENERGY OUTAGE WEBSITE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NAPIER FIELD            31.32N 85.45W
03/12/2022  M45 MPH          DALE               AL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KDHN DOTHAN.

0309 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LOWE ARMY HELIPORT      31.35N 85.75W
03/12/2022  M39 MPH          DALE               AL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KLOR FORT RUCKER.

&&