Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1226 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

Band of showers and storms resides through the Gulf waters into
the Florida Big Bend. To the west, line of storms is getting
organized ahead of a cold front and mid level trough. Low level
flow is increasing dramatically and winds at the surface is
increasing as well. Each TAF site has a good chance to experience
storms overnight with a severe threat as well. Post frontal winds
will be strong as well as directions switch to the northwest.
Gusts 30-40 knots will be common even after the convection has
moved to the east. Winds will remain strong through the day then
relax in the evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1001 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Not much has changed from the previous discussion. A frontal
boundary sits to our south over the Gulf, which has brought showers
and thunderstorms to the region today. Currently most of the tstorm
activity is confined to the waters and the the SE Big Bend, with
isolated to scattered showers north of there. Satellite imagery is
showing some areas of clearing over the CWA which may will help
prime the atmosphere for tonight. The CAMS over the past few hours
have been favoring a more unstable environment tonight, which will
depend on how much warm and moist air we can get ushered in this
evening. Jet dynamics still look impressive with the 850 mb winds in
the 50-60 knot range developing quickly after midnight. This mixed
with sufficient instability as dewpoints will be in the mid 60s
supports the SPC enhanced risk for our area. Damaging wind gusts, a
few tornadoes, and heavy rain will be the main threats with
tonight's severe weather event. Of course, the limiting factor
continues to be whether or not cold pool inhibits the flow of
instability ahead of the incoming front.

By Saturday morning, the severe threat will be wrapping up across
the tri-state area. The far SE Big Bend may have some showers and
storms lingering around daybreak, but we're expecting to quickly dry
out after that. Gusty northwest winds will be ushering in
significantly drier and colder air to the region. High temperatures
will have quite the range from the upper 40s in SE and the far
western FL Panhandle to the upper 50s and low 70s for the SE Big
Bend. The warmest temperatures for the Big Bend will likely be
during the early morning hours, before the cold front moves through.
Sustained wind speeds for Saturday will be around 15 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph being possible.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

Bitter cold defines the short-term period thanks to an Arctic
airmass arriving on the heels of Saturday's strong cold front.
Sunday morning's low temperatures are poised to plunge well into mid
20s, with some locations flirting with the 23-degree hard freeze
mark. Given the recent, prolonged stretch of anomalously warm
weather, we felt it was prudent to issue a Freeze Watch areawide a
couple days earlier than our normal March 15th date to usher in the
new season. Cool and dry conditions prevail the remainder of the
weekend as surface high pressure moves in overhead. Sunday highs max
out in the upper 50s to around 60 under mostly sunny skies. Patchy
frost is also possible heading into early Monday morning.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Airmass recovery gets underway to begin the work week when high
pressure shifts off the Atlantic coast, prompting winds to shift out
of the south. Meanwhile, zonal flow aloft gives way to an
approaching shortwave trough or cutoff low from the Lower MS Valley.
This feature is going to be responsible for returning showers/storms
on Tuesday. The potential for severe weather is a possibility as
well -- highlighted by the 15% Slight Risk in SPC's Day 5 Outlook
(valid 12Z Tuesday to 12Z Wednesday). However, the threat assessment
may be a bit overdone given that we would only be a couple days
removed from shedding off the Arctic air. Nevertheless,
wet/unsettled weather is on tap through Wednesday, followed by a
lull on Thursday. Another system arrives on Friday to reintroduce
low-end rain chances.

High temperatures rise to the upper 60s/low 70s Monday-Tuesday, then
widespread 70s the remainder of next week. The chilliest period of
the long-term is Monday morning when effective radiational cooling
looks to drive lows in the 30s (away from the immediate coast). Some
isolated, normally colder spots could see a light freeze. Otherwise,
lows rebound into the 50s from Tuesday, onward.

.MARINE...

Dangerous boating conditions are poised to affect the waters late
tonight into early tomorrow morning from strengthening winds ahead
of a strong cold front. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are
expected to sweep through during that time frame, with the potential
for severe weather that could produce gusts to up to 50 knots or
higher and waterspouts. Otherwise, frequent gales are expected away
from convection.

Gale conditions persist through Saturday afternoon from very gusty
northerly winds after frontal passage. By Saturday night, winds and
seas drop down to advisory levels, then hover around cautionary
values into the first half of next week. Showers and thunderstorms
look to return beginning Tuesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wet weather will continue through late tonight and into early
tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible over
land this afternoon, with chances increasing for the evening. The
threat of gusty and erratic winds remains possible with these with
the severe threat occuring during the overnight hours. This is when
the cold front is expected to move through and produce damaging
wind gusts, heavy rain, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Behind it,
gusty northwesterly winds will usher in cold and dry air. Winds
start to pick up around midnight, plus/minus a few hours, and then
increase. Sustained speeds across the CWA will range from 15 to 25
mph with gusts up 35 mph, perhaps locally up to 40 mph, expected. RH
values tank upper 20s to mid 30s with the driest air being across SE
AL, portions of SW GA, and the western FL Panhandle. Recovery looks
to be moderate with RH values generally in the 60s; however, looks
to be even drier with RHs in the 20s. Recovery is expected to be
good to excellent Sunday as they bounce back into the 80 to 100%
range.

.HYDROLOGY...

Multiple rounds of rain have brought 4-6 inches to the FL Panhandle
and Big Bend. Additional rainfall is expected through Saturday
morning with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches. These added amounts
could result in flash flooding and minor flooding on area rivers.
Thus, a Flood Watch continues for portions of the Panhandle, the Big
Bend, and the adjacent first row of GA counties (Decatur-Lowndes).

For tonight, a large squall line should move across the area.
Though this line will be moving quickly, it could produce an
additional 1-3 inches of rainfall along its path. Given this rain
would occur in a very short period of time, flash flooding is also
possible over the previously soaked locations.

In addition to the flash flood threat, riverine flooding is
possible, albeit minor in the Ochlockonee and upper Withlacoochee
River basins. Also, our smaller streams, like the Sopchoppy and
Steinhatchee could experience minor river flooding in the days
ahead. Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated with this event.

Dry weather follows after frontal passage by mid-Saturday morning,
with no rainfall expected until late Monday or early Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   57  26  60  34  70 /  20   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  27  58  40  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        47  25  57  34  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  25  56  33  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      62  28  58  36  70 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    71  26  60  38  73 /  80   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  30  58  44  66 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Flood Watch until 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Freeze Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for Baker-
     Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

     Flood Watch until 11 AM EST this morning for Brooks-Decatur-
     Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...DVD/Godsey

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1239 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 W INDIAN PASS         29.69N 85.31W
03/12/2022  M39 MPH          GULF               FL   MESONET

            SALINAS PARK WEATHERSTEM GUSTED TO 39 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1241 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND     29.67N 84.86W
03/12/2022  M39 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW STATION MEASURED A GUST OF 39
            MPH.

&&