Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
659 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

The main concern will be severe weather potential through this
morning. SPC upgraded the Day 1 outlook to include a Slight Risk
along and northwest of an Apalachicola to Tallahassee to Tifton
line.

The tail end of a large and progressive upper trough will cross
the forecast area today, extending south from Ontario. A surface
cold front is currently pushing across central Mississippi. The
front will continue southeast this morning, pushing across the
forecast area this afternoon.

In advance of the front, a significant low-level jet has
developed, with all four weather radar around the region showing
2,000-foot winds of 35-50 knots right now. The southerly flow
straight up the gut of the warm Gulf Loop Current is spreading
warm and muggy air north through the FL Panhandle and into
Alabama. Dewpoints well into the lower 70s are observed over the
western Panhandle. The ensuing instability and the very favorable
wind shear profile is helping a solid line of thunderstorms to
congeal across central Alabama, with discrete tornadic supercells
from southwest Alabama back across southern Mississippi.

Further consolidation of the line to the north is expected. Until
full consolidation happens, we will need to closely monitor the
discrete cells over southwest Alabama as they move east. Once full
consolidation into a focused squall line occurs, the biggest
severe threat will transition to damaging wind gusts. Of course,
squall lines are prone to producing embedded tornadoes. Spin-ups
within squall lines happen very quickly and can get hard to get a
lot of lead time for warnings, so stay vigilant through the
morning.

As the line reaches the southeast Big Bend early this afternoon,
the low-level jet will be exiting and weakening. Reduction in
supportive shear will lead to weakening of the line by early this
afternoon. Some stratiform rain may follow the line of
thunderstorms, bringing 1-3 hours of light rain behind the storms.
Drier air will arrive with the cold front later today. Rain will
end quickly, and skies will clear rapidly late this afternoon and
this evening.

A colder air mass will advect in tonight, with lows running 15-30
degrees colder tonight than this morning, mainly in the 35-45
degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 354 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Cooler and drier conditions wrap up the work week thanks to a post-
frontal airmass in place. Surface high pressure quickly traverses
the region from the west, with its center positioned off the coastal
Carolinas late in the period. High temperatures for Thursday are in
the 60s, while lows range from the upper 30s to upper 40s/low 50s. A
warming trend gets underway from low-level flow veering from
northeast to east on Friday. High temperatures rebound to the 70s
(some upper 60s along/northwest of a Albany-Panama City line)
heading into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Strong upper-level ridging over the Gulf prompts warm and mostly dry
conditions through early next week. Forecast high temperatures are
consistently in the 70s (isolated low 80s), though Monday and
Tuesday are shaping up to be the warmest of the period. Overnight
lows well into the 50s will be common. Low-end rain chances are
confined in the north-to-northwestern tier of the service area from
Saturday through Monday as a series of impulses aloft ride the crest
of the aforementioned ridge draped across the northern Gulf states.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

A nearly solid line of thunderstorms will move across the
terminals, from northwest to southeast this morning, in advance of
a cold front. Once the line passes each terminal, there will an
hour or two of trailing showers or stratiform rain. As the
trailing rain is ending, the actual cold front and its attendant
wind shift will arrive, followed by the arrival of a drier air
mass and clearing skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Cautionary boating conditions are expected across the western legs
today from a long fetch of southerly winds ahead of an approaching
cold front. The main marine concern is a line of thunderstorms
poised to cross the waters this morning through the afternoon.
Convective gusts in excess of 34 knots and waterspouts are possible
with this activity. Winds strengthen out of the north after frontal
passage. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Wednesday
evening into Thursday afternoon. Tranquil boating returns this
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Most districts will get a wetting rain this morning through early
afternoon, contributing to high humidity. Thick cloud cover until
mid-late afternoon will limit solar radiation. Rapid clearing is
expected late today once a cold front passes. Full sunshine and
considerably lower humidity are expected Thursday. A quick turn to
east and southeast winds on Thursday night will bring a return of
higher humidity, patchy morning fog, and fair weather cumulus by
Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

Today is the best opportunity to get meaningful rainfall thanks to a
line of scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong to severe)
poised to move through the service area today. Current forecast
amounts from this event are widespread 1-2 inches, isolated
higher amounts. Given the progressive nature of the convection and
very dry soils, flooding is not particularly a concern. However,
pockets of heavy rain in a short period of time could still cause
isolated flooding in poor-drainage, urban, and/or low-lying areas.
Precipitation beyond today looks minimal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  41  67  45 /  90   0   0   0
Panama City   74  42  65  49 /  90   0   0   0
Dothan        71  36  60  41 / 100   0   0   0
Albany        72  37  63  38 / 100   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  41  64  45 /  80  10   0   0
Cross City    79  47  69  51 /  60  20   0   0
Apalachicola  73  47  67  52 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday
     for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
717 AM EST WED NOV 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MABSON              31.46N 85.59W
11/30/2022                   DALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN AT 684 EAST COUNTY ROAD 36
            BLOCKING BOTH LANES.

&&

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