Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
712 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]
Line of strong thunderstorms will continue across the region
through the evening, primarily impacting KTLH and KVLD. In the
wake of the storms, low cigs and strong winds will develop as a
cold front crosses the area. The low cigs will linger into the
morning hours, especially at the northern terminals, before VFR
conditions improve by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [320 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Monday]...

A strong cold front is pushing across the area today through
tonight with strong to severe thunderstorms possible along and
ahead of it. A pretty unusual situation is expected for this time
of year (and in general) in that the system will actually
strengthen as it moves eastward across the area due to the
deepening low pressure currently over SE AL. This will cause the
low level jet to ramp up later this afternoon and evening,
increasing the severe threat and therefore tornado threat into the
evening hours. The primary severe threat will be with storms
embedded in the larger squall line, and a strong tornado cannot be
ruled out later this afternoon or evening. Locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, and hail are also threats with these storms.

Outside of thunderstorms, gusty winds are expected both ahead of
and in the wake of the cold front. Strong southerly to
southwesterly winds ahead of the front will continue to push warm,
moist Gulf air across the region and provide more fuel for storms.
Windy conditions in the wake of the front will quickly usher in a
much cooler and drier airmass tonight into Monday, with low
temperatures tonight falling into the mid 30s across SE AL and the
FL Panhandle to the upper 30s to low 40s further east. Breezy
conditions overnight will lead to wind chills in the upper 20s
across SE AL and the low to mid 30s most elsewhere. Monday is
forecast to be mostly sunny but windy and cool, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday night is forecast to be the coldest of the period with
radiational cooling allowing low temperatures to drop into the low
to mid 30s across most of the area. High temperatures begin to
rebound slowly, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday
under mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures begin to rebound
Tuesday night as easterly flow returns, with low temperatures
in the 40s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The gradual warming and moistening trend continues into the long
term with high temperatures rising back into the mid 60s to low
70s by Thursday. However, the trend is short-lived as another cold
front is forecast to push through the area Thursday into Friday,
knocking high temperatures back into the low 50s to low 60s
Friday. Low temperatures drop back into the mid 30s to mid 40s
Friday night, before another warming trend kicks off to finish out
the weekend.

.MARINE...

A strong cold front will push across the waters through tonight
with severe thunderstorms possible ahead of and along it. Gusty
winds and waterspouts will be possible with these storms. Windy
conditions ahead of the storms and in the wake of the front have
prompted a Gale Warning for all waters through 7 AM Monday. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are likely to linger into Monday night
as winds and seas gradually subside. Calmer conditions are
then expected until another front passes late in the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong cold front will push through the area through tonight with
breezy conditions ahead of and behind it. Breezy transport winds will
keep dispersions elevated Monday before subsiding into Tuesday and
Wednesday. Humidity should remain well above critical thresholds.

.HYDROLOGY...

A strong cold front will push through the area through tonight
with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. While
locally heavy rainfall is possible, chances for riverine or flash
flooding remain fairly low.

For coastal flooding, strong southerly winds across Apalachee Bay
will likely create coastal flooding along the Wakulla, Jefferson,
Taylor, and Dixie County coasts. Wakulla and Jefferson could see
inundation of 1 to 2 feet, and a coastal flood advisory is in
effect until through 7 AM ET Monday. Taylor and Dixie could
experience moderate coastal flooding with 2 to 4 feet of
inundation possible, and a coastal flood warning is in effect
through 7 AM ET Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   38  52  34  62  44 /  70   0   0   0   0
Panama City   37  53  36  61  48 /  70   0   0   0   0
Dothan        35  49  31  56  41 /  70   0   0   0   0
Albany        39  52  32  57  42 /  90   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      41  53  35  62  43 /  80   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  58  38  66  47 /  70   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  38  53  39  61  49 /  80   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Monday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Monday for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Monday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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