Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
406 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday Morning]...

Widespread showers and storms continue to affect south and southeast
parts of the forecast area with a threat for severe storms expected
to continue through at least the next few hours. Convective activity
has by and large been centered more over the southern portions of
the forecast area. A large reason for this is convection this
morning persisting longer than forecast. This intense convection
overnight brought an outflow boundary into the northern Gulf of
Mexico that has largely served as the focus for the strongest
storms. Additionally, drier wrapping in behind the shortwave trough
across Alabama has helped supress much of the convection across
southeast Alabama.

As we progress through the rest of the evening the primary focus for
severe storms will remain across southwest Georgia and generally
east of the Apalachicola River as the forcing for ascent lifts off
to the northeast and instability begins to decrease towards sunset.
While the organized severe threat is beginning to show some signs of
decreasing coverage, sufficient instability and shear still exist
across the Florida Big Bend to allow at least a few strong/severe
storms through the evening hours with the threat area shifting
into southern Georgia and the southeast Florida Big Bend through
the next few hours.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Upper level trough that brought an active end to the week will
push offshore the east coast through the remainder of the weekend
as drier northerly flow takes over. No rain is expected through
the end of the weekend with the only concerns being low fire
weather concerns as lower relative humidities move in to the area
and breezy conditions move in on Saturday. Temperatures will be a
few degrees color on Sunday as northerly flow keeps temperatures
in the low 80s across southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama with
temperatures in the mid 80s across our Florida counties.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Upper level flow becomes increasingly amplified as a blocking
pattern sets up across the US. The upper level trough that moved
through the area on Friday is expected to cut off over the western
Atlantic and meander west through the period. At the surface, dry
north and northeasterly flow will prevail through much of
upcoming week. While no significant shots of cooler air are
expected, the northeast flow should at least keep temperatures
near to slightly above seasonable norms and in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

MVFR/IFR conditions in thunderstorms can be expected for the rest
of the afternoon, especially across TLH/VLD/ABY where shower
chances are greatest through this evening. Elsewhere, a mix of
VFR/MVFR conditions are expected to prevail with breezy southwest
flow. The frontal system moves through with VFR expected to
prevail at all area TAF sites after 09z with west/northwest flow
prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...

Cold front moves through tonight and rain chances will end from
west to east through the rest of this evening and early Saturday
morning. Gusty westerly winds will develop overnight with advisory
level conditions developing through tonight. Winds remain elevated
tomorrow with improving conditions Saturday night into Sunday.
While conditions improve winds and seas will at least remain
elevated into next week around 10 to 15 knots and with seas around
2 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and breezy conditions move in for Saturday across the forecast
area and with high dispersions expected across the area on
Saturday and Sunday. With area fuels somewhat dry given the
pattern over the last few weeks, there are some low end fire
weather concerns through the next two days. A dry pattern is
likely to continue into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall amounts will generally be limited to three
quarters to and inch or less by the time this afternoon's system
moves out. Some of the showers and thunderstorms from the rest of
today may result in heavy rain, allowing for localized flooding
issues, particularly in poor drainage or urban areas. No
significant river flooding issues are expected through the next 7
to 14 days as a dry pattern develops.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  87  59  86  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
Panama City   69  82  62  83  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  81  55  82  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        63  82  57  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  84  58  83  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    70  85  62  86  61 /  60  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  82  63  82  66 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

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