Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1106 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.UPDATE...

Have increased PoPs across the FL Panhandle as activity ahead of
the main cold front has begun to pick up earlier than anticipated.
Otherwise, no other updates appear necessary at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [611 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A fairly potent mid and upper level shortwave vorticity maxima will
be moving through the Tennessee valley today. This short wave will
provide higher than normal low and deep layer shear across the
region for May, which is what is fueling the Enhanced risk outlook
levels (3 of 5) for portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia today.
Along with the higher than normal values of shear in place, there
will also be ample forcing for ascent across the region for storms
to initiate later this afternoon along and ahead of the cold front
associated with the surface low that is moving through the Ohio
valley and Mid-Atlantic states today. This system is unique for May,
because not only is there shear present, which is unusual for this
time of year, but there will be CAPE values between 1500-2000
J/Kg across the region, which is typical for May. Given that we
have strong shear in place coupled with a high instability
environment this afternoon and evening, storms will have the
potential to produce impacts ranging from strong to severe winds,
hail, as well as a tornado or two can't be ruled out. Overall,
with a strong mid and upper level system moving through the region
today, expect gusty winds of 25-30 mph across interior locations
and 30-35 mph across coastal panhandle locations. Temperatures are
expected to be slightly cooler today compared to Thursday, with
highs only climbing into the mid 80s across the area. Lows
tonight; however, will still be warm in the low to mid 60s
areawide.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...

Cold front will be exiting the region Saturday morning while the
upper level low remains situated across the Ohio Valley. Eventually
the upper level low will swing further east to the Mid-Atlantic
Saturday night, transitioning the region to northwest flow. This
will bring drier conditions overall to the region for the short
term. A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the far
southeast Big Bend early Saturday morning, but overall chances have
been trending downward. The front will have a small impact on
temperatures for the weekend with highs mainly in the mid to upper
80s and lows returning to the upper 50s to mid 60s. Most notable
will be the slightly drier conditions on Sunday.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Northwest flow will continue across the region as the upper level
low is situated along the Atlantic coast while ridging is
positioned to the west of the CWA. Eventually, the flow will
become more northerly as the ridging strengthens and the region
remains sandwiched between these two features. Ultimately, this
will allow for a dry start to the workweek, however as a few waves
rotate around the upper level low and it shifts back west across
the southeast mid to late week, low end PoPs will return to the
forecast for the second half of the week. Temperatures will remain
above normal in the extended with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s and lows in the 60s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

MVFR to LIFR CIGs are currently being observed at ABY and VLD this
morning. These Cigs are not expected to linger too long this morning
as an approaching cold front is expected to quickly increase the
winds areawide. A quick moving line of thunderstorms is moving
towards ECP and DHN this morning, and is expected to impact those
terminals in the next 2 hours or so. This line of storms will
likely produce strong gusty winds and MVFR to LIFR restrictions as
it passes.

Winds are expected to become especially elevated
through the afternoon and evening hours at all terminals, which
may lead to brief periods of LLWS at ABY, DHN, and TLH. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected once again across the region
through the afternoon and evening hours, and may induce brief
periods of MVFR to LIFR restrictions at all terminals today. Once
the front clears the region late in the evening, some LLWS is
expected; however, VFR conditions look to prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

.MARINE...

A cold front will move through the marine area tonight, bringing
showers and thunderstorms to the area today into tonight. This will
increase winds and seas with Small Craft Advisory conditions
expected through into tonight, with another brief period in
Apalachee Bay tomorrow afternoon. After this, periodic times of
exercise caution are expected through the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

With the approach of a cold front today, areawide winds will be
elevated with sustained 20 ft southwest winds of around 10-15 mph
expected. Gusts of 20-25 mph are expected as well today, especially
during the afternoon and evening hours. As the cold front approaches
the area during the late morning and early afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop across the area. With strong winds
ahead of the frontal passage, expect high dispersions areawide.
Outside of high dispersions, there are currently no fire weather
concerns at this time, especially with minimum RH values in the
upper 50s to low 60s across the region today.

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall amounts will generally be limited to three
quarters of an inch or less through tonight. Some of the showers
and thunderstorms today though may result in heavy rain, allowing
for localized flooding issues, particularly in poor drainage or
urban areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   84  66  87  61  87 /  50  30   0   0   0
Panama City   82  69  82  63  83 /  60  20   0   0   0
Dothan        80  61  82  57  84 /  90  20   0   0   0
Albany        84  63  83  58  84 /  80  40   0   0   0
Valdosta      86  65  86  59  84 /  50  50  10   0   0
Cross City    84  70  85  64  85 /  20  40  20   0   0
Apalachicola  82  70  82  65  83 /  40  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE...Oliver
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

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