Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022
Mesoscale Discussion 1925
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 4, 2022, 9:48 PM CDT for 22 counties in Arkansas; 13 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 4, 2022, 9:48 PM CDT (02:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 4, 2022, 11:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 35 counties
Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dent County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO
The radar
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 92 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -37 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 886 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 294 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 360 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
049
ACUS11 KWNS 050248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050248
MOZ000-ARZ000-050445-
Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022
Areas affected...much of northeastern Arkansas into southeastern
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 050248Z - 050445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...At least some risk for tornadoes and/or locally damaging
wind gusts may continue with the organized convective system as it
spreads toward the Mississippi River through Midnight-2 AM CDT.
However, it is not certain that a new severe weather watch will be
needed east of the ongoing watches.
DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually grown upscale into an
organizing convective system with embedded mesocyclones and several
larger evolving lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic circulations.
Activity is closely aligned with the 50+ kt southerly 850 mb jet
core (where low-level hodographs are maximized), which is forecast
to intensify further while shifting north-northeastward toward the
Mississippi Valley through 05-07Z, as a surface frontal low deepens
across southwest through central Missouri. However, as this occurs,
the Rapid Refresh suggests that a trailing southeastward surging
cold front will increasingly cut off the the northward return of
warm/moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. As inflow into the
convective system becomes progressively less unstable to stable, the
risk for tornadoes and/or localized damaging wind gusts will
gradually diminish as convection spreads east of Tornado Watch 561
and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562. However, it may not become
completely negligible for another several hours.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 11/05/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 35169245 36639220 37599185 38129074 37639011 35989019
34819075 34289116 34449204 35169245SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 7:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier | 88 min |
| Nov 4, 8:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Conway, Faulkner, Franklin, Garland and 15 more | 62 min |
| Nov 4, 9:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Drew, Lincoln and 1 more | 115 min |
| Nov 4, 10:04 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 15 more | 5 hr |
| Nov 4, 11:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee, Mississippi, Phillips and 2 more | 4 hr |
| Nov 5, 12:44 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Cross, Desha, Drew and 6 more | 61 min |
| Nov 4, 8:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Douglas, Howell, Oregon, Ozark, Shannon, Taney and 3 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2022Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.