Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
310 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Wednesday/

Tornado Watch #59 remains in effect for portions of South Central
Arkansas, much of Northern Louisiana and the southern half of
Northeast Texas until 8 am this morning. Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect through this afternoon for much of Northeast Texas,
Southwest Arkansas and all of Northern Louisiana.

Will be brief with ongoing watches in effect this morning. Leading
edge of convection extending from near El Dorado, Arkansas to
south and east of Shreveport/Bossier City, Louisiana to near
Lufkin, Texas. Low level directional shear in advance of this
line of convection remains excessive but we have little to no
surface based instability across the northern half of our Tornado
Watch with 500-1000J/KG across Deep East Texas. All this to say
that while we certainly cannot rule out an isolated tornado or
damaging wind gust across the Tornado Watch area through 8 am, the
larger concern through at least the mid morning hours is excessive
heavy rainfall across Deep East Texas into Northern Louisiana and
South Central Arkansas. Widespread rainfall amounts of one to
three inches with isolated higher amounts have already fallen
across portions of our region this morning with additional
rainfall amounts of two to four inches with higher amounts likely
through this afternoon, especially across Deep East Texas into
Northern Louisiana.

The severe weather threat across our southeast third later today
will greatly depend upon just how much instability this area will
see. Progs are pretty insistent that this area will destabilize
with the low level directional shear remaining in place with an
obvious tornado/damaging wind threat once again, mainly along and
southeast of a line from lower Toledo Bend Lake to near Monroe,
Louisiana.

All this convection shifts east of our region by late this
afternoon with the arrival of a cold front with uneventful weather
tonight through Wednesday.

13

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Tuesday/

Again, will be brief with ongoing short term concerns but the
weather through the remainder of the week into the upcoming
weekend looks dry but our region will continue to be under the
influence of our current upper level trough through Thursday.
Northwest flow aloft will dominate the Southern Plains/Lower
Miss Valley through the upcoming weekend. During this period,
look for moderating temperatures through Friday with a nice
warmup for the upcoming weekend into early next week.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1221 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022/

AVIATION...

Messy aviation conditions through at least mid morning with TSRA,
lower VSBYs, IFR to MVFR ceilings and VRB winds associated with
thunderstorm wind gusts. Eventually, we should see prevailing MVFR
or low VFR ceilings prevailing by late morning through the
afternoon hours as we lose the convection to the east of our
airspace. Look for post frontal gusts near 25 mph from the west
and northwest across at least the western half of our airspace by
the end of the TAF period.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1038 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/

UPDATE...
Convection is quickly evolving across Southwest Arkansas and East
Texas. Currently, the storms are still somewhat discrete and are
in somewhat broken line. Shear parameters remain very favorable
for supercell structures and tornadoes. In fact, latest
mesoanalysis suggests an even more favorable environment with
stronger low- level shear to the east over extreme Northwest
Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas. However, these storms are
starting to congeal in a QLCS, which should help to limit the
tornado potential somewhat, but low-level shear profiles are still
more than strong enough to support embedded QLCS tornadoes into
the early morning hours.

The expected line of convection is still expected to slow its
eastward progress or very nearly stall during the early morning
hours from Deep East Texas, into Northwest Louisiana, and
Southwest Arkansas. This will set the stage for very heavy
rainfall and flooding. Very little has changed in the forecast
regarding this threat.

PoPs were trimmed about from the eastern edge of the forecast area
through midnight. In addition, wind speeds have fallen below
advisory criteria, so the Wind Advisory was cancelled.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  44  62  40 / 100   0   0   0
MLU  73  46  63  41 / 100  10   0   0
DEQ  68  40  60  34 /  50  10  10   0
TXK  70  44  60  39 /  80   0   0   0
ELD  70  42  60  37 / 100  10   0   0
TYR  66  42  62  39 /  20   0   0   0
GGG  69  42  63  38 /  60   0   0   0
LFK  73  42  65  41 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ112-126-137-138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&

13/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
222 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-010>012-017-TXZ149>153-165>167-221200-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Sabine-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-
Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
222 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Tornado Watch 59 is in effect until 8 AM CDT. A Flood Watch is in
effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to become somewhat stationary
across the area tonight. Some of the storms could be severe.
Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will be possible. As the
storms stall and train over the same areas, widespread rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible with locally higher amounts
of 6 inches or more. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect until 4
PM CDT this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms will be ongoing across Southern Arkansas, North
Louisiana, and Deep East Texas this morning. The storms should
finally begin to move east again after daybreak. The severe weather
and flash flood threats will continue over these areas before
diminishing from west to east through early afternoon. Afterwards,
cooler and drier conditions will settle back into the region for the
remainder of the week into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will be needed tonight and into
Tuesday.

ARZ060-061-070-071-TXZ112-126-137-138-221200-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Cass-Marion-Gregg-Harrison-
222 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Flood Watch is in effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to become somewhat stationary
across the area tonight. As the storms stall and train over the same
areas, widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible
with locally higher amounts of 6 inches or more. Therefore, a Flood
Watch is in effect until 4 PM CDT this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across Southern Arkansas,
North Louisiana, and Deep East Texas Tuesday morning, with the flash
flood threats continuing before diminishing from west to east
through early afternoon. Afterwards, cooler and drier conditions
will settle back into the region for the remainder of the week into
the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will be needed tonight and into early
Tuesday morning.

LAZ013-014-018>022-221200-
Jackson-Ouachita-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
222 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Flood Watch is in effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday.

A line of storms is expected to stall across Louisiana, and into
Southwest Arkansas. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
possible with locally higher amounts of 6 inches or greater.
Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms will be ongoing across Southern Arkansas and North
Louisiana Tuesday morning. The storms are expected to re-intensify
during the daytime hours bringing a renewed threat for severe
weather and flash flooding, before diminishing from west to east
through the afternoon. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds
will be possible, especially over Northeast and North Central
Louisiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters may be needed early Tuesday morning,
and will be needed during the day Tuesday.

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136-221200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-
Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-Upshur-Smith-
222 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will not be needed.

09

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