Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1221 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

.AVIATION...

Messy aviation conditions through at least mid morning with TSRA,
lower VSBYs, IFR to MVFR ceilings and VRB winds associated with
thunderstorm wind gusts. Eventually, we should see prevailing MVFR
or low VFR ceilings prevailing by late morning through the
afternoon hours as we lose the convection to the east of our
airspace. Look for post frontal gusts near 25 mph from the west
and northwest across at least the western half of our airspace by
the end of the TAF period.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1038 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/

UPDATE...
Convection is quickly evolving across Southwest Arkansas and East
Texas. Currently, the storms are still somewhat discrete and are
in somewhat broken line. Shear parameters remain very favorable
for supercell structures and tornadoes. In fact, latest
mesoanalysis suggests an even more favorable environment with
stronger low- level shear to the east over extreme Northwest
Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas. However, these storms are
starting to congeal in a QLCS, which should help to limit the
tornado potential somewhat, but low-level shear profiles are still
more than strong enough to support embedded QLCS tornadoes into
the early morning hours.

The expected line of convection is still expected to slow its
eastward progress or very nearly stall during the early morning
hours from Deep East Texas, into Northwest Louisiana, and
Southwest Arkansas. This will set the stage for very heavy
rainfall and flooding. Very little has changed in the forecast
regarding this threat.

PoPs were trimmed about from the eastern edge of the forecast area
through midnight. In addition, wind speeds have fallen below
advisory criteria, so the Wind Advisory was cancelled.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  63  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  45  61  41  65 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  40  58  34  62 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  45  59  38  62 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  43  59  37  63 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  42  64  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  42  64  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  42  66  40  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ112-126-137-138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&

13/CN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-011-017-TXZ097-112-125-
126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-De Soto-Red River-Sabine-Bowie-
Cass-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Tornado Watch 56 is in effect until 3 AM CDT.A Flood
Watch is in effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity
tonight and into early Tuesday morning. A line of storms will
also move into the area from the west. These storms may be severe.
Tornadoes, large hail, possibly up to two inches in diameter, and
damaging winds up to 80 mph will be possible.

The line of storms is expected to stall across East Texas,
Northwest Louisiana, and into Southwest Arkansas. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible with locally higher
amounts of 6 inches or greater. Therefore, a Flood Watch is in
effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across Southern
Arkansas, North Louisiana, and Deep East Texas Tuesday morning,
with the severe and flash flood threats continuing over these
areas before diminishing from west to east through early
afternoon. Afterwards, cooler and drier conditions will settle
back into the region for the remainder of the week into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will be needed tonight and into
early Tuesday morning..

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-221100-
McCurtain-Red River-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Wood-
1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected through the remainder of tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will not be needed tonight.

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-012>014-018>022-221100-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Natchitoches-
Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, north central Louisiana and northwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Flood Watch is in effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday.

A line of storms is expected to stall across Louisiana, and into
Southwest Arkansas. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
are possible with locally higher amounts of 6 inches or greater.
Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect until 4 PM CDT Tuesday
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms will be ongoing across Southern Arkansas and North
Louisiana Tuesday morning. The storms are expected to re-intensify
during the daytime hours bringing a renewed threat for severe
weather and flash flooding, before diminishing from west to east
through the afternoon. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds
will be possible, especially over Northeast and North Central
Louisiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters may be needed early Tuesday morning,
and will be needed during the day Tuesday.

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1126 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW ORE CITY           32.74N 94.82W
03/21/2022                   UPSHUR             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE EAST OF GILMER ON FM
            1649 NEAR WILLIAMS ROAD WEST OF FM 1972.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1127 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE GILMER            32.71N 94.89W
03/21/2022                   UPSHUR             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            CORRECTED TIME. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE TO A
            HOUSE ON AZALEA ROAD OFF HWY 154 EAST OF
            GILMER.

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W LINDEN              33.00N 94.48W
03/21/2022                   CASS               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1134 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W LINDEN              33.00N 94.49W
03/21/2022                   CASS               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1210 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW MOUNT ENTERPRISE  31.94N 94.74W
03/21/2022                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR DAMAGE TO TWO HOUSES, INCLUDING A
            MISSING ROOF ON FM 2496 2 TO 3 MILES WEST OF
            US 259. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW MOUNT ENTERPRISE  31.94N 94.74W
03/21/2022                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 4
            WNW MOUNT ENTERPRISE. MAJOR DAMAGE TO TWO
            HOUSES, INCLUDING A MISSING ROOF ON FM 2496
            2 TO 3 MILES WEST OF US 259. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CN