Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Key Messages:

1. Storms will continue to impact the region at times this
afternoon into tonight. Some strong to severe storms will be
possible with this activity.

2. Weather looks dry with seasonable temperatures and less
humidity the rest of the the week.

3. Low rain chances could return by next weekend, but confidence
is low at the moment.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Thunderstorms are occurring across the area this afternoon as an
unstable and uncapped air mass is in place across the area. An
upper level trough is moving east across Minnesota currently.
With the trough well north of the region, wind shear is on the
weaker side across the area. Therefore, the storms have been more
pulse in nature due to the weaker shear. A moist and unstable air
mass is in place across the area with decent Theta-E difference.
Storms are producing outflows and gusty winds. These outflows then
produce additional storms. The storm movement is to the northeast,
with additional storms generally developing along the outflow to
the south of the previous storms. This is allowing the potential
for localized training of storms and a flash flood potential.
Precipitable water values are generally around 1.75 to 2.00
inches which is resulting in very heavy rainfall rates. A few
strong to severe storms will also remain possible this afternoon
with wind gusts up to 60mph the main risk. Some small hail will
also be possible with the strongest storms.

As the upper level trough continues to move east a cold front
will move south into the area later this evening into tonight.
There is also a line of storms across Oklahoma that could move
into the area as well this evening. Storm chances will continue
into tonight. There are questions on the exact coverage and
intensity of the storms later this evening and tonight due to the
current storms working the area over. Locally heavy rainfall and a
few strong storms could remain possible which is dependent on how
much recovering that can occur. The storms should move out of the
area from north to south by Tuesday morning.

The rest of the day Tuesday looks dry as surface high pressure
will start to move towards the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Models are in good agreement for seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions occurring the rest of the work week as surface high
pressure remains over the region. Highs will generally warm into
the 80s to near 90 with lows in the 60s. A slightly drier air mass
will settle into the area so some locations, especially across
the eastern Ozarks, could see lows drop into the 50s during the
middle of the week.

The ensemble model members then show the upper level ridge moving
back east towards the area next weekend, which would allow warmer
conditions. There are some members that show that some rain may
occur but it's low confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Convection has developed across portions of Oklahoma across
eastern Kansas into central Missouri this afternoon. This
currently activity is moving to the northeast. These storms will
produce outflows that will help generate additional storms this
afternoon and evening. Therefore, scattered convection could
impact the TAF sites at some point this afternoon/evening. Gusty
winds and heavy down pours leading to brief IFR conditions can be
expected under any storms.

A front will sag south into the area later this evening into the
overnight hours. Additional showers and storms will develop and
long the front and could impact the TAF sites again. Brief periods
of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with any storms again.
The convection should push out of the area Tuesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
209 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
209 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered storms will continue to develop and occur across the
area at times today into this evening. Additional showers and
storms will then be possible later this evening into tonight as a
front moves through the area. There will be the potential for
some strong to severe storms this afternoon into tonight.

Wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size quarters
will be possible with a few of the strongest storms. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with
any storms.

Locations that are not affected by any storms or locations that
see sun after storms have occurred, may see heat index values
reach the mid 90s to around 100 today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Some showers and storms may linger across far southern Missouri
into Tuesday morning, but the remainder of the day will be dry.

There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across
southern and south central Missouri Saturday into early next
week, but confidence is low at the moment.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>