Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Springfield, MO

032 
WGUS73 KSGF 300331
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

MOC149-300341-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-220830T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oregon MO-
1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR OREGON COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3679 9132 3679 9112 3650 9113 3650 9167
      3667 9166

$$

ML

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Key Messages:

1. Storms will continue to impact the region at times this
afternoon into tonight. Some strong to severe storms will be
possible with this activity.

2. Weather looks dry with seasonable temperatures and less
humidity the rest of the the week.

3. Low rain chances could return by next weekend, but confidence
is low at the moment.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Thunderstorms are occurring across the area this afternoon as an
unstable and uncapped air mass is in place across the area. An
upper level trough is moving east across Minnesota currently.
With the trough well north of the region, wind shear is on the
weaker side across the area. Therefore, the storms have been more
pulse in nature due to the weaker shear. A moist and unstable air
mass is in place across the area with decent Theta-E difference.
Storms are producing outflows and gusty winds. These outflows then
produce additional storms. The storm movement is to the northeast,
with additional storms generally developing along the outflow to
the south of the previous storms. This is allowing the potential
for localized training of storms and a flash flood potential.
Precipitable water values are generally around 1.75 to 2.00
inches which is resulting in very heavy rainfall rates. A few
strong to severe storms will also remain possible this afternoon
with wind gusts up to 60mph the main risk. Some small hail will
also be possible with the strongest storms.

As the upper level trough continues to move east a cold front
will move south into the area later this evening into tonight.
There is also a line of storms across Oklahoma that could move
into the area as well this evening. Storm chances will continue
into tonight. There are questions on the exact coverage and
intensity of the storms later this evening and tonight due to the
current storms working the area over. Locally heavy rainfall and a
few strong storms could remain possible which is dependent on how
much recovering that can occur. The storms should move out of the
area from north to south by Tuesday morning.

The rest of the day Tuesday looks dry as surface high pressure
will start to move towards the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Models are in good agreement for seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions occurring the rest of the work week as surface high
pressure remains over the region. Highs will generally warm into
the 80s to near 90 with lows in the 60s. A slightly drier air mass
will settle into the area so some locations, especially across
the eastern Ozarks, could see lows drop into the 50s during the
middle of the week.

The ensemble model members then show the upper level ridge moving
back east towards the area next weekend, which would allow warmer
conditions. There are some members that show that some rain may
occur but it's low confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

Convection has developed across portions of Oklahoma across
eastern Kansas into central Missouri this afternoon. This
currently activity is moving to the northeast. These storms will
produce outflows that will help generate additional storms this
afternoon and evening. Therefore, scattered convection could
impact the TAF sites at some point this afternoon/evening. Gusty
winds and heavy down pours leading to brief IFR conditions can be
expected under any storms.

A front will sag south into the area later this evening into the
overnight hours. Additional showers and storms will develop and
long the front and could impact the TAF sites again. Brief periods
of MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible with any storms again.
The convection should push out of the area Tuesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
209 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
209 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered storms will continue to develop and occur across the
area at times today into this evening. Additional showers and
storms will then be possible later this evening into tonight as a
front moves through the area. There will be the potential for
some strong to severe storms this afternoon into tonight.

Wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size quarters
will be possible with a few of the strongest storms. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with
any storms.

Locations that are not affected by any storms or locations that
see sun after storms have occurred, may see heat index values
reach the mid 90s to around 100 today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Some showers and storms may linger across far southern Missouri
into Tuesday morning, but the remainder of the day will be dry.

There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms across
southern and south central Missouri Saturday into early next
week, but confidence is low at the moment.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
433 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.28W
08/29/2022                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING. 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
435 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

MOZ083-098-292200-
Dent MO-Shannon MO-
435 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Shannon and
southeastern Dent Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Bunker to near Eminence.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Echo Bluff State Park...          Current River State Park...
Ozark National Scenic Riverways...
Eminence...
Bunker...                         Alley Spring...
Midridge...                       Round Spring...
West Eminence...                  Gladden...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9115 3709 9121 3705 9122 3706 9160
      3750 9153 3753 9131 3751 9131 3750 9122
      3742 9121 3741 9117 3732 9118 3731 9116
      3726 9116 3725 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 262DEG 24KT 3752 9134 3710 9140

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Langfeld

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
438 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

MOZ101-102-292215-
Barry MO-McDonald MO-
438 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDonald and southwestern Barry Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Washburn, or 13 miles northeast of Bella Vista, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seligman...                       Washburn...
Wayne...                          Powell...
Ridgley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 9421 3673 9397 3650 9391 3650 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 260DEG 9KT 3659 9411

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Langfeld

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
443 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W SPRINGFIELD         37.19N 93.37W
08/29/2022                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD COMPLETELY COVERED DUE TO FLASK
            FLOODING.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW SPRINGFIELD        37.18N 93.30W
08/29/2022  M4.35 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT KY3 RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW SALEM              37.67N 91.56W
08/29/2022                   DENT               MO   COCORAHS

            SPRING CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS AND OVER THE
            BRIDGE. HEAVY RAIN FROM SEVERAL
            THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

TEO