Tornado Warning 23, NWS Blacksburg, VA

469 
WWUS51 KRNK 270023
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
823 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCC171-193-197-270031-
/O.EXP.KRNK.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-220527T0030Z/
Surry NC-Wilkes NC-Yadkin NC-
823 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SURRY...EAST CENTRAL WILKES AND 
NORTHWESTERN YADKIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM EDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and 
a Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area. Heavy 
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern North Carolina.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Surry, Stokes, Wilkes and Yadkin Counties until 915PM. 

LAT...LON 3619 8094 3655 8082 3654 8044 3653 8044
      3611 8073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 205DEG 26KT 3649 8065 

$$

AMS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
737 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area Friday, with a few strong
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Mountain showers
and clouds linger into Saturday. Dry and hot weather is
forecast to return for the last half of Memorial Day weekend
and through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 645 PM EDT Thursday...

Our latest update includes primarily a small adjustment to the
probability of precipitation across eastern sections of the
region. The progression of showers into that region has not been
as robust as earlier advertised. As such, have lowered the
probabilities over the next few hours, before ramping them back
up as we approach midnight.

Also, the adjustment will reflect minor changes to hourly
temperature, dew point, and sky cover to better reflect the
latest observations and expected trends through the evening
hours.

As of 600 PM EDT Thursday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #275 is in effect for parts of North
Carolina.

Have updated the forecast to reflect the potential for damaging
winds and large hail across the four counties of our forecast
area in North Carolina within the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

     Showers and thunderstorms this evening through Friday...

A stacked low pressure system is currently tracking through the
Midwest, bringing an attendant cold front along with it. Showers
will begin very drizzly from the southwest this afternoon and
evening before becoming stronger and potentially severe tonight and
into early Friday morning. High-res models suggest two stronger
lines of convection will impact our area in the next 24 hours.

The first will be prefrontal, with the timeframe of greatest threat
about 7PM to midnight. Competing model guidance suggests this could
be a more showery event with less severe threat than the second
line. Main threats associated with storms tonight and tomorrow will
be strong winds and high rainfall rates. The second line will be
more associated with actual fropa, and will cross the area in the
morning hours of Friday.

Currently have a few drizzly looking returns on radar in the
Mountain Empire and NC High Country. More widespread showers are
waiting just in the wings to the west, so expect rain to pick up in
the mountains within the next few hours. With little to no breaks in
cloud cover, environment will remain fairly stable, which will limit
storm activity. Isolated storms are in the forecast; however, with
the approaching front. Diurnal temperature swings will likewise be
held to a minimum with the moist and overcast setup. Highs in the
60s and 70s today will only drop to the mid 60s tonight, and then
back up into the 70s Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 134 PM EDT Thursday...

A closed low will move from Ohio to Pennsylvania Friday night.
With a westerly downslope flow over the area, rain coverage will
shrink to just the western slopes overnight. Through the day
Saturday, this low will track off the New England coast, ending
rain chances for the area by the afternoon.

An upper level ridge will move over the region come Sunday and
wobble around in the vicinity into Wednesday. Temperatures Saturday
will warm to normal levels (70s), then above normal Sunday and
Monday. On Monday, temperatures will likely run around 10F warmer
than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper level ridge will remain near the region through most of
next week. This ridge will keep temperatures 10F to 15F warmer than
normal. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the mid to
upper 80s across the mountains and low to mid 90s east.

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms return to the mountains Wednesday
and Thursday. Not much in the way of storms over the foothills and
piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

Sub-VFR conditions will prevail across most of the region
overnight and into tomorrow morning, with gradual improvement
across western and central sections of the region by the
afternoon.

Expect shower and some thunderstorm across the region overnight
with increased coverage around daybreak Friday with the arrival
and passage of a cold front.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A cold front crosses the area through Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front will produce MVFR and
periodically lower conditions. A strong thunderstorm or two is
possible Friday afternoon, especially east of the Blue Ridge.

Isolated to scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday in the mountains, but it will be
drier and clearing over the Virginia and North Carolina
foothills and piedmont.

Dry and warmer weather and VFR conditions are expected across
southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West
Virginia on Monday under high pressure.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS/RCS/SH
NEAR TERM...DS/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DS/SH/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
549 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCZ003-004-019-020-272200-
Surry-Stokes-Wilkes-Yadkin-
549 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina
and northwest North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms tonight may produce moderate to heavy rain
that could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon,
especially east of the Blue Ridge. Damaging winds, large hail, and
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are all possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather by
calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov
or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ005-006-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-272200-
Rockingham-Caswell-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
549 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and
west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms tonight may produce moderate to heavy rain
that could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon,
especially east of the Blue Ridge. Damaging winds, large hail, and
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are all possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-272200-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
549 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms tonight may produce moderate to heavy rain
that could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.