Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
221 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather and increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms are in store today. A cold front will cross the
area Friday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon. Mountain showers and clouds linger into Saturday. Dry
and hot weather is forecast to return for the last half of
Memorial Day weekend and through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

...Showers and thunderstorms this evening through Friday...

A stacked low pressure system is currently tracking through the
Midwest, bringing an attendant cold front along with it. Showers
will begin very drizzly from the southwest this afternoon and
evening before becoming stronger and potentially severe tonight and
into early Friday morning. High-res models suggest two stronger
lines of convection will impact our area in the next 24 hours.

The first will be prefrontal, with the timeframe of greatest threat
about 7PM to midnight. Competing model guidance suggests this could
be a more showery event with less severe threat than the second
line. Main threats associated with storms tonight and tomorrow will
be strong winds and high rainfall rates. The second line will be
more associated with actual fropa, and will cross the area in the
morning hours of Friday.

Currently have a few drizzly looking returns on radar in the
Mountain Empire and NC High Country. More widespread showers are
waiting just in the wings to the west, so expect rain to pick up in
the mountains within the next few hours. With little to no breaks in
cloud cover, environment will remain fairly stable, which will limit
storm activity. Isolated storms are in the forecast; however, with
the approaching front. Diurnal temperature swings will likewise be
held to a minimum with the moist and overcast setup. Highs in the
60s and 70s today will only drop to the mid 60s tonight, and then
back up into the 70s Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 134 PM EDT Thursday...

A closed low will move from Ohio to Pennsylvania Friday night.
With a westerly downslope flow over the area, rain coverage will
shrink to just the western slopes overnight. Through the day
Saturday, this low will track off the New England coast, ending
rain chances for the area by the afternoon.

An upper level ridge will move over the region come Sunday and
wobble around in the vicinity into Wednesday. Temperatures Saturday
will warm to normal levels (70s), then above normal Sunday and
Monday. On Monday, temperatures will likely run around 10F warmer
than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper level ridge will remain near the region through most of
next week. This ridge will keep temperatures 10F to 15F warmer than
normal. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the mid to
upper 80s across the mountains and low to mid 90s east.

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms return to the mountains Wednesday
and Thursday. Not much in the way of storms over the foothills and
piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Sub VFR conditions dominate this TAF period. Low cigs in the
MVFR/IFR range will persist through Friday morning. Behind a passing
cold front, there will be some breaks in the clouds Friday afternoon
that could lead to some brief VFR conditions.

Vsbys will also be reduced in this TAF period. With showers and
storms throughout the forecast area through Friday afternoon, vsbys
will drop within these storms. Some may have heavy rainfall
associated with them, which would reduce vsby significantly. In
addition some patchy fog may develop in the early Friday morning
hours, which would hamper vsbys independent of any showers or storms.

For most of this forecast period, winds will be out of the south at
5-10kts with a few gusts possible. After the front passes on Friday,
expect winds to turn to the southwest and west.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A cold front crosses the area through Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the front will produce MVFR and
periodically lower conditions. A strong thunderstorm or two is
possible Friday afternoon, especially east of the Blue Ridge.

Isolated to scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms are
possible Saturday and Sunday in the mountains, but it will be
drier and clearing over the Virginia and North Carolina
foothills and piedmont.

Dry and warmer weather and VFR conditions are expected across
southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West
Virginia on Monday under high pressure.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VFJ/SH
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/VFJ

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