Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
449 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area today, with a few strong
thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, and scattered showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day. Mountain showers and
clouds linger into Saturday. Dry and hot weather is forecast to
return for the last half of Memorial Day weekend and through
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...

...A Flood Watch for flash flooding continues for parts of
southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina through noon...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a closed low circulation
over IL with plenty of dry air wrapping around it in the mid
levels. This low will shift east-northeast today. A pseudo warm
front as well as pre-frontal trough are in the vicinity of the
southern Appalachians ahead of a cold front to the west. These
boundaries along with PWATs around 1.3" or about the 90th
percentile for the day will trigger several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms.

The next push is arriving currently in our western counties and
will shift east and blossom on radar through the morning. There
should be a break in the activity before the next batch arrives
with the cold front in the afternoon hours.

Southern sections of the forecast area are seeing some
convection with circulations in an area of higher low level
shear. This area of shear is really confined to northern NC and
far south central VA, and the cell in question is moving into
an area less favorable for rotation and should eventually
weaken. However there will remain a small tornado threat for
the near term, and this afternoon that threat will be confined
to mainly central northern NC and central and eastern VA. Other
concerns will be damaging winds and perhaps some hail in the
same areas. This activity will mainly affect eastern sections of
the forecast area once again this afternoon.

FFG remains high for areas east of the Blue Ridge, in the 2-4"
range for 6 hrs, while the mountains and foothills are closer to
1-2" and in some cases lower. The Flood watch remains in effect
though noon.

Additional showers will be possible tonight into the overnight
as the upper low lifts in WV and PA. Stratus is also forecast
overnight for the mountains in CAA.

Highs today will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows tonight
will drop into the 50s, with some upper 40s possible in the
mountains. Behind the front tonight expect west winds to clear
skies out downwind of the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Saturday through Monday expect sunny skies and warming
temperatures in the 70s and 80s, with widespread mid to upper
80s forecast for Monday. This will be due to an upper ridge
overhead. It will be dry during this time frame with light and
variable winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

...Mostly Quiet Weather Until End Of Work Week...

High pressure overhead Monday night through Thursday will allow
for mostly quiet weather for a majority of the long term part
of the forecast. Temperatures will moderate through the period,
eventually reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, each
day the chance of an isolated shower or storm in the mountains
increases thanks to increasing moisture and differential
heating. Meanwhile, things should stay dry in the Piedmont. By
late in the week, a frontal system should be moving across the
U.S. and will start to increase return flow for the area late
Thursday into Friday, based on current guidance. This will start
to bring a notable increase in rain chances.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 440 AM EDT Friday...

Sub-VFR conditions will prevail across most of the region
today, with gradual improvement across western and central
sections of the region by the afternoon. Expect periods of SHRA
and TSRA throughout the day. A strong thunderstorm or two is
possible Friday afternoon, especially east of the Blue Ridge.
Expect westerly winds to increase behind a cold frontal passage
this afternoon and evening. There will be lingering stratus
tonight into early Saturday for the mountains.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

VFR conditions will prevail Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VAZ015-016-032.
NC...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for NCZ001>003-018>020.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS/SH
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
637 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

VAZ033>035-043>047-058-059-281045-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
637 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 276 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ004>006-281045-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-
637 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 276 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms tonight may produce moderate to heavy rain
that could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

VAZ020-022>024-281045-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
637 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-017>019-WVZ042>044-507-508-281045-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
637 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms tonight may produce moderate to heavy rain
that could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003-019-020-VAZ032-281045-
Surry-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-
637 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-016-281045-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-
637 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina and
southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
512 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

NCZ004-VAZ032-043-270945-
Stokes NC-Henry VA-Patrick VA-
512 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...A gusty shower will impact portions of northeastern Stokes,
southwestern Henry and southeastern Patrick Counties through 545 AM
EDT...

At 511 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower near
Danbury, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Danbury...
Sandy Ridge...
Spencer...
Sanville...
Penns Store...
Critz...
and Horse Pasture.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3643 8033 3679 8013 3663 7984 3654 8000
      3654 8002 3652 8003 3639 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0911Z 217DEG 31KT 3647 8025

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
527 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

NCZ004-005-VAZ032-271000-
Stokes NC-Rockingham NC-Patrick VA-
527 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...A gusty shower will impact portions of eastern Stokes,
northwestern Rockingham and southeastern Patrick Counties through
600 AM EDT...

At 526 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower over
Germanton, or 7 miles southwest of Walnut Cove, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Walnut Cove...
Stoneville...
Danbury...
Sandy Ridge...
and Dillard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8031 3661 8015 3656 8005 3654 8005
      3654 8003 3646 7987 3626 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 214DEG 31KT 3625 8027

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
542 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

VAZ033-043-271015-
Henry VA-Franklin VA-
542 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...A gusty shower will impact portions of northwestern Henry and
southeastern Franklin Counties through 615 AM EDT...

At 542 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower over
Sanville, or near Bassett, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bassett...
Sydnorsville...
Snow Creek...
Sanville...
Stanleytown...
Collinsville...
and Oak Level.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8006 3666 8006 3667 8007 3671 8009
      3679 8005 3679 8004 3680 8004 3700 7994
      3685 7969 3663 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0942Z 215DEG 35KT 3671 8003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
556 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

NCZ004-005-VAZ043-271030-
Stokes NC-Rockingham NC-Henry VA-
556 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...A gusty shower will impact portions of northeastern Stokes,
northwestern Rockingham and southwestern Henry Counties through 630
AM EDT...

At 555 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower over
Dillard, or near Sandy Ridge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Ridgeway...
Horse Pasture...
Ayersville...
Price...
and Dillard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 8008 3642 8014 3669 7995 3658 7973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 218DEG 29KT 3643 8008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
707 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE BUFFALO RIDGE     36.73N 80.19W
05/27/2022  M3.15 INCH       PATRICK            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR STREAM FLOODING.

&&

WP

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