Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
239 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure was over the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
this afternoon with a front extending from the low into the
Carolinas. This low will track slowly east tonight and Saturday
bringing several periods of showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday. As the low moves offshore, high pressure builds in with
drier and warmer weather for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Severe thunderstorms remain a threat this afternoon into tonight.

Tornado Watch 186 in effect until 8 pm.
Tornado Watch 187 in effect until 10 pm.

Several rounds of convection expected this afternoon into tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of
the cold front as it moves east tonight into Saturday. Strong to
severe are possible this afternoon into tonight. Locally enhanced
low level shear along the warm front will elevate the threat of a
tornado this afternoon. Overall helicity of 200/300 m2/s2 and
Convective Available Potential Energy in the 1000-2000 J/Kg range
support the severe threat. Pockets of low clouds and fog will
develop overnight especially where it rains. Low temperatures will
be in the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in the piedmont.
A closed upper level low will slowly directly overhead Saturday.
This low should steepen the lapse rates aloft and continue to bring
showers through Saturday with maybe a few thunderstorms in the
afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will climb into the lower 50s
in the mountains to the lower 70s in the piedmont.

Moderate confidence in the Near Term Forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Dry conditions return for the start of the week...

A closed upper level low will be just north of the area and then
track eastward, heading off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula by
Sunday morning. Upper level ridging starts building into the area,
extending from the Gulf of Mexico up near the Great Lakes. These two
features establish decent north/northeasterly flow at 500mb.

At the surface, the low pressure center slowly moves off to the
North Carolina coast by Saturday night, and with it, decreasing our
chances of showers and storms by the nighttime hours. Surface high
pressure will sit to the north of the surface low in Eastern Canada,
setting up a blocking pattern for the beginning of the week. Winds
on the order of 10 to 20 mph from the north/northeast will dominate
Sunday into Monday as we sit between these two features.

Temperatures are a bit cooler for this period, thanks to the
northerly flow, but we do stay dry through this period once the low
pressure system moves offshore by Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Another round of shower and storm chances later in the week...

The influence of the surface high pressure sitting to our north will
keep us dry for the middle of the week. However, the surface low
pressure that will have crossed the area on Saturday will continue
to spin off the coast of the Southeastern US. By the end of the
week, this will drift back westward, getting closer to the coast. As
it approaches for the second half to end of the week, it will
increase the possibility of another round of associated showers and
storms. However, models differ in when the low will get close enough
to the coast to bring the precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure was over the Mid Mississippi Valley with a front
extending from the low into the Carolinas will track east this
afternoon into Saturday. Winds will be out of the east to
southeast on the north side of this boundary. As the front lifts
north through the region the wind will turn to the southwest.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
front. The most likely of timing of thunderstorms based on many
Hi- Res convective allowing models is from 19Z/3PM through
03Z/11PM. Strong gusty wind and large hail are possible this
afternoon and evening, especially in central and eastern
Virginia and North Carolina.

Average confidence on ceiling, visibility and wind.
Below average confidence on timing of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening at any specific airport.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A deep upper low will bring several rounds of showers with
associated MVFR conditions for the Saturday and Sunday.Late
night and early morning IFR/LIFR fog will be possible,
especially where it rains. Clouds will remain Monday and Tuesday
with sub-VFR ceilings still likely but dry weather is expected.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/KK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

VAZ020-WVZ507-508-071900-
Bath-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk for strong to severe storms through this
evening with wind and hail as the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-071900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 186 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Reports should be
submitted by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ004>006-VAZ011-013-014-017>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-071900-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
248 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 187 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Reports should be
submitted by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
609 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             1 NNW BLUEFIELD         37.25N 81.27W
05/06/2022  E0.88 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL HAIL.

0550 PM     HAIL             BLUEFIELD               37.24N 81.27W
05/06/2022  M0.75 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0559 PM     HAIL             1 W MARION              36.83N 81.52W
05/06/2022  E1.25 INCH       SMYTH              VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
622 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

VAZ044-058-062300-
Halifax VA-Pittsylvania VA-
622 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Pittsylvania and west central Halifax Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 622 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Keeling, or near Blairs, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blairs...
Mt Airy...
Ingram...
Java...
Leda...
Keeling...
and Ringgold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central and west central
Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 7932 3668 7944 3698 7917 3683 7891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 223DEG 36KT 3668 7930

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
643 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ020-062315-
Yadkin NC-
643 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Yadkin
County through 715 PM EDT...

At 642 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Yadkinville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yadkinville...
Boonville...
East Bend...
Nebo...
Buck Shoals...
and Brooks Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for northwestern
North Carolina...and southwestern Virginia. A Tornado Watch also
remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for north central North
Carolina...and southwestern Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8088 3627 8072 3627 8068 3625 8067
      3625 8065 3627 8064 3628 8063 3629 8063
      3627 8060 3628 8057 3627 8054 3626 8053
      3625 8046 3622 8043 3621 8045 3606 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 232DEG 18KT 3616 8070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
647 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

VAZ010>014-018-019-WVZ044-507-062345-
Giles VA-Pulaski VA-Bland VA-Wythe VA-Montgomery VA-Craig VA-
Alleghany VA-Eastern Greenbrier WV-Monroe WV-
647 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Alleghany County in
west central Virginia, Pulaski, Giles, Craig, Bland, and western
Montgomery Counties in southwestern Virginia, southeastern
Greenbrier and eastern Monroe Counties in southeastern West Virginia
and the City of Radford through 745 PM EDT...

At 645 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lewisburg to Pearisburg to near Wytheville.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blacksburg...
Christiansburg...
Radford...
Alleghany...
Pulaski...
Lewisburg...
and Dublin
Interstate 81 between mile markers 80 and 105.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for southwestern
Virginia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT
for southwestern and west central Virginia...and southeastern West
Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 8031 3805 8026 3804 8021 3804 8016
      3806 8011 3806 7996 3800 8000 3795 8005
      3794 8003 3796 7999 3735 8024 3694 8061
      3699 8108 3746 8052 3808 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 273DEG 41KT 3801 8028 3746 8042 3708 8088

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHILHOWIE               36.80N 81.68W
05/06/2022                   SMYTH              VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF ONE STRUCTURE ALONG MAIN
            STREET IN CHILHOWIE DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS.

&&

EST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
654 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             1 NNE SALTVILLE         36.88N 81.76W
05/06/2022  E0.25 INCH       SMYTH              VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN AND AROUND THE
            SALTVILLE AREA. IN SOME CASES IT WAS COATING
            THE GROUND.

&&

EST